Mon 31 Aug2-1Finished

⚽ Primeira Liga

Benfica vs Estoril Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Benfica vs Estoril in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Monday 31 August 2026, 19:15 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Benfica 2-1 Estoril

Benfica vs Estoril finished 2-1. Benfica won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Benfica face Estoril in the upcoming Primeira Liga tips, kicking off Monday 31 August 2026, 19:15 UTC. Recent form: Benfica have 2 wins from their last 5, while Estoril have no wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Benfica won 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Benfica win the most likely result at 82%, projecting a 3.1-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Benfica vs Estoril with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 2.5 @ 1.30

76%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 3.12 – 0.91 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	1.8%	1.6%	0.7%	0.2%	0.1%
1	5.5%	5.0%	2.3%	0.7%	0.2%
2	8.7%	7.9%	3.6%	1.1%	0.2%
3	9.0%	8.2%	3.7%	1.1%	0.3%
4	7.0%	6.4%	2.9%	0.9%	0.2%

Projected score: 3-0

Benfica winDrawEstoril win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Benfica vs Estoril comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.30, with a 76% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Benfica win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 82%. Goals lean over 2.5 (76%), both teams to score points yes (57%).

📊 Key numbers

Benfica 82%Draw 10%Estoril 8%

82%10%

82%

Benfica Win

76%

Over 2.5 goals

57%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Benfica and Estoril. Wins shown from Benfica’s perspective: Benfica 5.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-31	Benfica	2 – 1	Estoril	W
2026-05-16	Estoril	1 – 3	Benfica	W
2026-01-03	Benfica	3 – 1	Estoril	W
2025-05-03	Estoril	1 – 2	Benfica	W
2024-12-23	Benfica	3 – 0	Estoril	W

📈 Recent form

Benfica

Benfica come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 13 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Moreirense. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at FC Porto.

LFC Porto 3-1 BenficaPrimeira Liga
WAC Milan 0-2 BenficaUEFA Europa League
WBenfica 3-1 Gil VicentePrimeira Liga
WMoreirense 0-4 BenficaPrimeira Liga
WMarítimo 0-3 BenficaPrimeira Liga

Estoril

Estoril come into this game with no wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 2 and conceding 7. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Casa Pia.

LEstoril 1-2 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
LSC Braga 1-0 EstorilPrimeira Liga
DEstoril 0-0 AroucaPrimeira Liga
LBenfica 2-1 EstorilPrimeira Liga
LEstoril 0-2 Rio AvePrimeira Liga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Benfica at 82% to win and Estoril at 8%, with the draw at 10%. Our model makes a Benfica win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Benfica Win	82%	82%	@ 1.15
Draw	10%	12%	@ 8.00
Estoril Win	8%	6%	@ 16.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Benfica or Draw at 1.01 (93% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Benfica or Draw	93%	94%	@ 1.01
Estoril or Draw	20%	18%	@ 4.50

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 3.1-0.9 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 76% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	91%	85%	@ 1.08
Over 2.5	76%	70%	@ 1.30
Over 3.5	57%	51%	@ 1.80
Under 3.5	43%	49%	@ 1.88
Under 2.5	24%	30%	@ 3.05
Under 1.5	9%	15%	@ 6.10

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 57%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	57%	46%	@ 1.97
BTTS No	43%	54%	@ 1.71

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Benfica or Estoril is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Benfica -0.25	83%	86%	1.10
Benfica -0.5	80%	82%	1.16
Benfica -0.75	75%	80%	1.18
Benfica -1	70%	77%	1.20
Benfica -1.25	64%	69%	1.33
Benfica -1.5	59%	63%	1.46
Benfica -1.75	54%	59%	1.58
Estoril +2	52%	46%	@ 2.02
Benfica -2	48%	54%	1.75
Estoril +1.75	46%	41%	@ 2.24
Estoril +1.5	41%	37%	@ 2.53
Estoril +1.25	36%	31%	@ 3.02
Estoril +1	30%	23%	@ 4.08
Estoril +0.75	25%	20%	@ 4.65
Estoril +0.5	20%	18%	@ 5.25
Estoril +0.25	17%	14%	@ 7.00

📈 How the market moved

Benfica 81%Draw 13%Estoril 6%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Benfica vs Estoril?

Our model's main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.30, with a 76% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 70%.

Who is the favourite for Benfica vs Estoril?

Our model makes a Benfica win the most likely result at 82%. It projects an expected 3.1-0.9 scoreline for Benfica vs Estoril.

What is the predicted score for Benfica vs Estoril?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 3-0, based on expected goals of 3.12 for Benfica and 0.91 for Estoril. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Benfica and Estoril play?

Kick-off is Monday 31 August 2026, 19:15 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.