⚽ Primeira Liga

Benfica vs Estoril Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Benfica vs Estoril in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Monday 31 August 2026, 19:15 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Benfica face Estoril in the Primeira Liga, kicking off Monday 31 August 2026, 19:15 UTC. Recent form: Benfica have 2 wins from their last 5, while Estoril have 0 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Benfica won 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Benfica win the most likely result at 82%, projecting a 3.1-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Benfica vs Estoril with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 2.5 @ 1.33

76%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 3.09 – 0.93 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	1.8%	1.7%	0.8%	0.2%	0.1%
1	5.5%	5.2%	2.4%	0.7%	0.2%
2	8.6%	8.0%	3.7%	1.1%	0.3%
3	8.8%	8.2%	3.8%	1.2%	0.3%
4	6.8%	6.3%	2.9%	0.9%	0.2%

Projected score: 3-0

Benfica winDrawEstoril win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Benfica vs Estoril is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.33, the selection our model is most confident in at 76%. On the match result, the model rates a Benfica win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 82%. Goals lean over 2.5 (76%), both teams to score points yes (58%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is both teams to score at odds 2.10 (+21.2% model value).

Best value

BTTS Yes at odds 2.10, 58% model probability, +21.2% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Benfica 82%Draw 11%Estoril 8%

82%11%

82%

Benfica Win

76%

Over 2.5 goals

58%

BTTS yes

+21.2%

Best value: BTTS Yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Benfica and Estoril. Wins shown from Benfica’s perspective: Benfica 5.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-05-16	Estoril	1 – 3	Benfica	W
2026-01-03	Benfica	3 – 1	Estoril	W
2025-05-03	Estoril	1 – 2	Benfica	W
2024-12-23	Benfica	3 – 0	Estoril	W
2024-03-10	Benfica	3 – 1	Estoril	W

📈 Recent form

Benfica

Benfica come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 19 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 7-0 at Casa Pia. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WBenfica 3-1 AarhusUEFA Europa League
WCasa Pia 0-7 BenficaPrimeira Liga
DHeart Of Midlothian 1-1 BenficaUEFA Europa League
DBenfica 2-2 Academico ViseuPrimeira Liga
WBenfica 6-1 Heart Of MidlothianUEFA Europa League

Estoril

Estoril come into this game with 0 wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 2 and conceding 6. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at home to Rio Ave.

LEstoril 0-2 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
LNacional 2-0 EstorilPrimeira Liga
DEstoril 1-1 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
DCF Os Belenenses 1-1 EstorilFriendlies Clubs
DEstoril 0-0 TorreenseFriendlies Clubs

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Benfica at 82% to win and Estoril at 8%, with the draw at 11%. Our model makes a Benfica win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Estoril Win	8%	@ 19.00	+47.6%
Benfica Win	82%	@ 1.12	-8.7%
Draw	11%	@ 8.20	-12.5%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Estoril or Draw at 5.75 (20% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Estoril or Draw	20%	@ 5.75	+16.6%
Benfica or Draw	93%	@ 1.02	-5.3%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 3.1-0.9 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 76% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	57%	@ 1.83	+4.1%
Over 2.5	76%	@ 1.33	+1.5%
Over 1.5	91%	@ 1.08	-1.9%
Under 3.5	43%	@ 1.95	-16.0%
Under 2.5	24%	@ 3.30	-21.9%
Under 1.5	9%	@ 7.50	-31.4%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 58%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	58%	@ 2.10	+21.2%
BTTS No	42%	@ 1.67	-29.4%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Benfica vs Estoril?

Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.33, with 76% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is both teams to score at 2.10 (+21.2% value).

Who is the favourite for Benfica vs Estoril?

Our model makes a Benfica win the most likely result at 82%. It projects an expected 3.1-0.9 scoreline for Benfica vs Estoril.

What is the predicted score for Benfica vs Estoril?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 3-0, based on expected goals of 3.09 for Benfica and 0.93 for Estoril. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Benfica and Estoril play?

Kick-off is Monday 31 August 2026, 19:15 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.