⚽ UEFA Europa League
Benfica vs Lech Poznan Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Benfica vs Lech Poznan in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Thursday 05 November 2026, 20:00 UTC.
Benfica face Lech Poznan in the UEFA Europa League, kicking off Thursday 05 November 2026, 20:00 UTC. Recent form: Benfica have 5 wins from their last 5, while Lech Poznan have 1 win from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Benfica win the most likely result at 65%, projecting a 5.4-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Benfica vs Lech Poznan with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 2.2% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 3.9% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 5.3% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Benfica vs Lech Poznan comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.30, with a 73% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates a Benfica win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 65%. Goals lean over 2.5 (91%), both teams to score points yes (59%).
📊 Key numbers
📈 Recent form
Benfica come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 15 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at home to Gil Vicente. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WBenfica 1-0 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
- WBenfica 4-1 Gil VicenteTaça da Liga
- WSanta Clara 1-2 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- WOmonia Nicosia 1-4 BenficaUEFA Europa League
- WBenfica 4-1 CelticUEFA Europa League
Lech Poznan come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 6-1 at home to Korona Kielce. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at Siarka Tarnobrzeg.
- WLech Poznan 3-1 Wisla KrakowEkstraklasa
- LSiarka Tarnobrzeg 1-0 Lech PoznanCup
- WLegia Warszawa 1-2 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
- DLech Poznan 1-1 SunderlandUEFA Europa League
- WLech Poznan 6-1 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 9 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- L. BarreiroNot in squad
- E. BarrenecheaInjury
- D. LukebakioInjury
- A. DouglasAnkle Injury
- A. GholizadehKnee Injury
- M. IshakNot in squad
- W. MonkaInjury
- J. MoutinhoNot in squad
- A. SayyadmaneshGroin Injury
🧩 Likely line-ups & team news
Lech Poznan
Coach: N. Frederiksen
Benfica
Coach: Marco Silva
Expected line-ups are based on each team's last starting XI and the reported absences. Official line-ups are released about an hour before kick-off.
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Benfica at 65% to win and Lech Poznan at 17%, with the draw at 18%. Our model makes a Benfica win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica Win | 65% | 83% | @ 1.14 |
| Draw | 18% | 12% | @ 8.00 |
| Lech Poznan Win | 17% | 5% | @ 19.00 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Benfica or Draw at 1.02 (84% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica or Draw | 84% | 95% | @ 1.02 |
| Lech Poznan or Draw | 36% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 5.4-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 91% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 94% | 88% | @ 1.08 |
| Over 2.5 | 91% | 73% | @ 1.30 |
| Over 3.5 | 84% | 55% | @ 1.73 |
| Under 3.5 | 16% | 45% | @ 2.10 |
| Under 2.5 | 9% | 27% | @ 3.50 |
| Under 1.5 | 6% | 12% | @ 8.00 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 59%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 48% | @ 1.95 |
| BTTS No | 41% | 52% | @ 1.80 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Benfica vs Lech Poznan?
Our pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.30, with a 73% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.
Who is the favourite for Benfica vs Lech Poznan?
Our model makes a Benfica win the most likely result at 65%. It projects an expected 5.4-1.1 scoreline for Benfica vs Lech Poznan.
What is the predicted score for Benfica vs Lech Poznan?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 4-1, based on expected goals of 5.38 for Benfica and 1.11 for Lech Poznan. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Benfica and Lech Poznan play?
Kick-off is Thursday 05 November 2026, 20:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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