Tue 13 Oct19:00Upcoming

⚽ Championship

Birmingham vs Preston Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Birmingham vs Preston in the Championship. Kick-off Tuesday 13 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Birmingham face Preston in the Championship, kicking off Tuesday 13 October 2026, 19:00 UTC. Recent form: Birmingham have 1 win from their last 5, while Preston have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 3 meetings, Birmingham won 2, Preston won 1. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Birmingham win the most likely result at 44%, projecting a 1.7-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Birmingham vs Preston with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.44

71%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.69 – 1.02 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.7%	6.8%	3.5%	1.2%	0.3%
1	11.2%	11.5%	5.8%	2.0%	0.5%
2	9.5%	9.7%	4.9%	1.7%	0.4%
3	5.4%	5.5%	2.8%	0.9%	0.2%
4	2.3%	2.3%	1.2%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Birmingham winDrawPreston win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Birmingham vs Preston comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.44, with a 71% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Birmingham win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 44%. Goals lean over 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (52%).

📊 Key numbers

Birmingham 44%Draw 30%Preston 26%

44%30%26%

44%

Birmingham Win

51%

Over 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 3 meetings between Birmingham and Preston. Wins shown from Birmingham’s perspective: Birmingham 2 · Preston 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-04-22	Birmingham	2 – 1	Preston	W
2024-04-01	Birmingham	1 – 0	Preston	W
2023-09-19	Preston	2 – 1	Birmingham	L

📈 Recent form

Birmingham

Birmingham come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 7. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at West Brom. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Norwich.

WWest Brom 0-1 BirminghamChampionship
DBirmingham 2-2 MiddlesbroughChampionship
WDerby 1-2 BirminghamChampionship
LNorwich 2-1 BirminghamChampionship
DBirmingham 2-2 WolvesChampionship

Preston

Preston come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Blackburn. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Millwall.

LPreston 0-1 MillwallChampionship
DQPR 2-2 PrestonChampionship
LPreston 0-1 LincolnChampionship
LWatford 2-1 PrestonChampionship
WPreston 2-1 BlackburnChampionship

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Birmingham

M. LeonardAchilles Tendon Injury
Paik Seung-HoHealth problems
S. WrightOff the roster

Preston

A. McCannHamstring Injury
B. PottsAnkle Injury
T. CarrollAnkle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Birmingham at 44% to win and Preston at 26%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Birmingham win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Birmingham Win	44%	58%	@ 1.62
Draw	30%	25%	@ 3.75
Preston Win	26%	17%	@ 5.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Birmingham or Draw at 1.14 (72% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Birmingham or Draw	72%	83%	@ 1.14
Preston or Draw	54%	42%	@ 2.25

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-1.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 51% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	75%	78%	@ 1.22
Under 3.5	71%	66%	@ 1.44
Over 2.5	51%	55%	@ 1.73
Under 2.5	49%	45%	@ 2.10
Over 3.5	29%	34%	@ 2.75
Under 1.5	25%	22%	@ 4.33

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 52%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	52%	54%	@ 1.73
BTTS No	48%	46%	@ 2.00

📈 How the market moved

Birmingham 59%Draw 23%Preston 17%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

🔬 What our models say about this match

🔍 What our models say about this match

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	47%
Dixon-Coles	Home	57%
GradientBoosting	Home	39%

All three of our models point the same way on the match result.

Expected goals: 1.51 for the home side, 1.11 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Birmingham vs Preston?

Our model's pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.44, with a 71% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 66%.

Who is the favourite for Birmingham vs Preston?

Our model makes a Birmingham win the most likely result at 44%. It projects an expected 1.7-1.0 scoreline for Birmingham vs Preston.

What is the predicted score for Birmingham vs Preston?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.69 for Birmingham and 1.02 for Preston. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Birmingham and Preston play?

Kick-off is Tuesday 13 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.