Sat 10 Oct14:00Upcoming

⚽ Championship

Bolton vs Stoke City Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Bolton vs Stoke City in the Championship. Kick-off Saturday 10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Bolton face Stoke City in the Championship, kicking off Saturday 10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC. Recent form: Bolton have 2 wins from their last 5, while Stoke City have 4 wins from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Bolton win the most likely result at 44%, projecting a 1.5-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Bolton vs Stoke City with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.28

78%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.53 – 1.35 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.6%	7.6%	5.1%	2.3%	0.8%
1	8.6%	11.6%	7.8%	3.5%	1.2%
2	6.6%	8.9%	6.0%	2.7%	0.9%
3	3.4%	4.5%	3.1%	1.4%	0.5%
4	1.3%	1.7%	1.2%	0.5%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Bolton winDrawStoke City win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Bolton vs Stoke City comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.28, with a 78% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Bolton win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 44%. Goals lean over 2.5 (55%), both teams to score points yes (57%).

📊 Key numbers

Bolton 44%Draw 29%Stoke City 27%

44%29%27%

44%

Bolton Win

55%

Over 2.5 goals

57%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Bolton

Bolton come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 13. Their biggest win in that run was 4-3 at Norwich. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at home to West Ham.

WNorwich 3-4 BoltonChampionship
WBolton 1-0 CardiffChampionship
LBolton 2-3 West HamChampionship
LMillwall 4-0 BoltonChampionship
LSheffield Utd 3-2 BoltonChampionship

Stoke City

Stoke City come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Charlton. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WStoke City 2-1 Sheffield UtdChampionship
WWatford 1-2 Stoke CityChampionship
DCardiff 1-1 Stoke CityChampionship
WStoke City 4-0 CharltonChampionship
WStoke City 1-0 NorwichChampionship

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Bolton

L. BruntHamstring Injury
C. Forino-JosephGroin Injury
L. StephensonMuscle Injury

Stoke City

A. CresswellKnee Injury
S. IngelssonMuscle Injury
E. GalbraithInjury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Bolton at 44% to win and Stoke City at 27%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes a Bolton win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Bolton Win	44%	35%	@ 2.70
Draw	29%	28%	@ 3.40
Stoke City Win	27%	38%	@ 2.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Bolton or Draw at 1.50 (72% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Bolton or Draw	72%	62%	@ 1.50
Stoke City or Draw	54%	65%	@ 1.44

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 55% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	78%	75%	@ 1.28
Under 3.5	67%	70%	@ 1.36
Over 2.5	55%	50%	@ 1.91
Under 2.5	45%	50%	@ 1.91
Over 3.5	33%	30%	@ 3.20
Under 1.5	22%	25%	@ 3.75

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 57%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	57%	56%	@ 1.67
BTTS No	43%	44%	@ 2.10

📈 How the market moved

Bolton 35%Draw 28%Stoke City 37%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Bolton vs Stoke City?

Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.28, with a 78% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.

Who is the favourite for Bolton vs Stoke City?

Our model makes a Bolton win the most likely result at 44%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.4 scoreline for Bolton vs Stoke City.

What is the predicted score for Bolton vs Stoke City?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.53 for Bolton and 1.35 for Stoke City. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Bolton and Stoke City play?

Kick-off is Saturday 10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.