⚽ Premier League
Brighton vs Aston Villa Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Brighton vs Aston Villa in the Premier League. Kick-off Sunday 23 August 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Result: Brighton 4-0 Aston Villa
Brighton vs Aston Villa finished 4-0. Brighton won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Brighton face Aston Villa in the upcoming Premier League tips, kicking off Sunday 23 August 2026, 13:00 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Brighton won 1, Aston Villa won 3, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Brighton win the most likely result at 38%, projecting a 1.6-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Brighton vs Aston Villa with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 8.3% | 11.4% | 7.8% | 3.6% | 1.2% |
| 2 | 6.5% | 8.9% | 6.1% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 3.4% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Brighton vs Aston Villa comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Aston Villa with a +1.25 start at odds 1.28, with a 77% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Brighton win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 38%. Goals lean over 2.5 (56%), both teams to score points yes (59%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Brighton and Aston Villa. Wins shown from Brighton’s perspective: Brighton 1 · 1 drawn · Aston Villa 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Brighton | 4 – 0 | Aston Villa | W |
| 2026-02-11 | Aston Villa | 1 – 0 | Brighton | L |
| 2025-12-03 | Brighton | 3 – 4 | Aston Villa | L |
| 2025-04-02 | Brighton | 0 – 3 | Aston Villa | L |
| 2024-12-30 | Aston Villa | 2 – 2 | Brighton | D |
📈 Recent form
Brighton come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 15 and conceding 7. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at Coventry. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 3-4 at Chelsea.
- WBrighton 3-0 ArsenalPremier League
- WManchester United 2-3 BrightonLeague Cup
- WCoventry 0-5 BrightonPremier League
- DBrighton 1-1 LeedsPremier League
- LChelsea 4-3 BrightonPremier League
Aston Villa come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Coventry. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to Nottingham Forest.
- WTottenham 2-3 Aston VillaPremier League
- WCoventry 1-3 Aston VillaLeague Cup
- LAston Villa 1-2 Nottingham ForestPremier League
- WClub Brugge KV 2-3 Aston VillaUEFA Champions League
- DHull City 0-0 Aston VillaPremier League
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 13 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- C. BalebaAnkle Injury
- E. FergusonAnkle Injury
- Y. MintehInjury
- K. MitomaHamstring Injury
- M. O'RileyIllness
- S. TzimasKnee Injury
- T. AbrahamInjury
- L. BaileyMuscle Injury
- B. MadjoAnkle Injury
- J. ManzambiKnee Injury
- E. MartinezFinger Injury
- A. OnanaKnee Injury
- O. WatkinsNot in squad
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Brighton at 38% to win and Aston Villa at 34%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Brighton win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton Win | 38% | 42% | @ 2.23 |
| Aston Villa Win | 34% | 31% | @ 3.10 |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | @ 3.50 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Brighton or Draw at 1.36 (65% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton or Draw | 65% | 69% | @ 1.36 |
| Aston Villa or Draw | 61% | 58% | @ 1.64 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 56% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 77% | @ 1.23 |
| Under 3.5 | 66% | 67% | @ 1.40 |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 54% | @ 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 46% | @ 2.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 34% | 33% | @ 2.90 |
| Under 1.5 | 21% | 23% | @ 4.10 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 59%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 58% | @ 1.60 |
| BTTS No | 41% | 42% | @ 2.23 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Brighton or Aston Villa is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa +1.75 | 85% | 82% | 1.16 |
| Brighton +1.5 | 85% | – | 1.10 |
| Aston Villa +1.5 | 82% | 77% | @ 1.22 |
| Brighton +1.25 | 80% | 84% | 1.13 |
| Aston Villa +1.25 | 77% | 74% | 1.28 |
| Brighton +1 | 75% | 83% | 1.15 |
| Aston Villa +1 | 72% | 72% | 1.33 |
| Brighton +0.75 | 70% | 75% | 1.26 |
| Aston Villa +0.75 | 67% | 63% | @ 1.51 |
| Brighton +0.5 | 65% | 69% | 1.37 |
| Aston Villa +0.5 | 61% | 57% | @ 1.67 |
| Brighton +0.25 | 58% | 65% | 1.47 |
| Aston Villa +0.25 | 55% | 50% | @ 1.94 |
| Brighton 0 | 52% | 59% | 1.62 |
| Aston Villa 0 | 48% | 41% | @ 2.34 |
| Brighton -0.25 | 45% | 50% | 1.94 |
| Aston Villa -0.25 | 42% | 35% | @ 2.75 |
| Brighton -0.5 | 39% | 43% | 2.18 |
| Aston Villa -0.5 | 35% | 31% | @ 3.04 |
| Brighton -0.75 | 33% | 37% | 2.58 |
| Aston Villa -0.75 | 30% | 25% | @ 3.89 |
| Brighton -1 | 28% | 28% | 3.37 |
| Aston Villa -1 | 25% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
| Brighton -1.25 | 23% | 26% | 3.71 |
| Aston Villa -1.25 | 20% | 16% | @ 5.90 |
| Brighton -1.5 | 18% | 23% | 4.00 |
| Brighton -1.75 | 15% | 18% | 5.25 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Brighton vs Aston Villa?
Our model's main pick is Aston Villa with a +1.25 start at odds 1.28, with a 77% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.
Who is the favourite for Brighton vs Aston Villa?
Our model makes a Brighton win the most likely result at 38%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.4 scoreline for Brighton vs Aston Villa.
What is the predicted score for Brighton vs Aston Villa?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.56 for Brighton and 1.37 for Aston Villa. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Brighton and Aston Villa play?
Kick-off is Sunday 23 August 2026, 13:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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