Tue 13 Oct18:45Upcoming

⚽ Championship

Burnley vs Charlton Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Burnley vs Charlton in the Championship. Kick-off Tuesday 13 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Burnley face Charlton in the Championship, kicking off Tuesday 13 October 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Burnley have no wins from their last 5, while Charlton have no wins from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Burnley win the most likely result at 65%, projecting a 1.7-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Burnley vs Charlton with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.36

74%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.73 – 0.87 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.4%	6.5%	2.8%	0.8%	0.2%
1	12.8%	11.2%	4.9%	1.4%	0.3%
2	11.1%	9.7%	4.2%	1.2%	0.3%
3	6.4%	5.6%	2.4%	0.7%	0.2%
4	2.8%	2.4%	1.0%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-0

Burnley winDrawCharlton win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Burnley vs Charlton comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 74% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Burnley win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 65%. Goals lean under 2.5 (52%), both teams to score points no (53%).

📊 Key numbers

Burnley 65%Draw 20%Charlton 16%

65%20%16%

65%

Burnley Win

52%

Under 2.5 goals

53%

BTTS no

📈 Recent form

Burnley

Burnley come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Watford. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Swansea.

WWatford 0-4 BurnleyChampionship
DBurnley 1-1 DerbyChampionship
LSwansea 3-1 BurnleyChampionship
DWrexham 1-1 BurnleyChampionship
LBurnley 1-2 Bristol CityChampionship

Charlton

Charlton come into this game with no wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 2 and conceding 8. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Cardiff.

DCharlton 1-1 Bristol CityChampionship
LCardiff 3-1 CharltonChampionship
DCharlton 0-0 PortsmouthChampionship
DCharlton 0-0 QPRChampionship
LStoke City 4-0 CharltonChampionship

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 14 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Burnley

E. AgyeiMuscle Injury
A. BarnesMuscle Injury
J. BeyerHamstring Injury
B. HumphreysMuscle Injury
H. MejbriHamstring Injury
M. ObafemiNot in squad
A. RamseyHamstring Injury
J. BanelMuscle Injury

Charlton

C. SichenjeKnee Injury
N. ChalobahMuscle Injury
M. GoddenMuscle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Burnley at 65% to win and Charlton at 16%, with the draw at 20%. Our model makes a Burnley win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Burnley Win	65%	58%	@ 1.60
Draw	20%	25%	@ 3.80
Charlton Win	16%	17%	@ 5.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Burnley or Draw at 1.14 (85% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Burnley or Draw	85%	83%	@ 1.14
Charlton or Draw	36%	42%	@ 2.30

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-0.9 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 52% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	74%	70%	@ 1.36
Over 1.5	73%	75%	@ 1.28
Under 2.5	52%	50%	@ 1.91
Over 2.5	48%	50%	@ 1.91
Under 1.5	27%	25%	@ 3.75
Over 3.5	26%	30%	@ 3.20

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 53%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	53%	50%	@ 1.83
BTTS Yes	47%	50%	@ 1.83

📈 How the market moved

Burnley 58%Draw 24%Charlton 17%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

🔬 What our models say about this match

🔍 What our models say about this match

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	66%
Dixon-Coles	Home	49%
GradientBoosting	Home	70%

All three of our models point the same way on the match result.

Expected goals: 1.99 for the home side, 0.84 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Burnley vs Charlton?

Our model's pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 74% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 70%.

Who is the favourite for Burnley vs Charlton?

Our model makes a Burnley win the most likely result at 65%. It projects an expected 1.7-0.9 scoreline for Burnley vs Charlton.

What is the predicted score for Burnley vs Charlton?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.73 for Burnley and 0.87 for Charlton. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Burnley and Charlton play?

Kick-off is Tuesday 13 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.