Sat 10 Oct14:30Upcoming

⚽ Primeira Liga

Casa Pia vs Santa Clara Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Casa Pia vs Santa Clara in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Saturday 10 October 2026, 14:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Casa Pia face Santa Clara in the Primeira Liga, kicking off Saturday 10 October 2026, 14:30 UTC. Recent form: Casa Pia have 1 win from their last 5, while Santa Clara have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 4 meetings, Santa Clara won 3, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Santa Clara win the most likely result at 38%, projecting a 0.8-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Casa Pia vs Santa Clara with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.40

64%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 0.85 – 1.32 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	11.4%	15.1%	9.9%	4.4%	1.4%
1	9.7%	12.8%	8.5%	3.7%	1.2%
2	4.1%	5.4%	3.6%	1.6%	0.5%
3	1.2%	1.5%	1.0%	0.4%	0.1%
4	0.2%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%

Projected score: 0-1

Casa Pia winDrawSanta Clara win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Casa Pia vs Santa Clara comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.40, with a 64% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Santa Clara win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 38%. Goals lean under 2.5 (63%), both teams to score points no (59%).

📊 Key numbers

Casa Pia 32%Draw 30%Santa Clara 38%

32%30%38%

38%

Santa Clara Win

63%

Under 2.5 goals

59%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between Casa Pia and Santa Clara. Wins shown from Casa Pia’s perspective: 1 drawn · Santa Clara 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-04-18	Casa Pia	0 – 0	Santa Clara	D
2025-12-06	Santa Clara	1 – 0	Casa Pia	L
2025-02-01	Santa Clara	2 – 1	Casa Pia	L
2024-08-24	Casa Pia	0 – 2	Santa Clara	L

📈 Recent form

Casa Pia

Casa Pia come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Estoril. Their most recent defeat was 1-4 at home to FC Porto.

WEstoril 1-2 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
LCasa Pia 1-4 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
DVitória SC 0-0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
LCasa Pia 0-1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
LGil Vicente 2-0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga

Santa Clara

Santa Clara come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 2. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Rio Ave.

DSanta Clara 0-0 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
WArouca 1-2 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
WSanta Clara 4-0 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
DAlverca 1-1 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
WSanta Clara 1-0 FamalicãoPrimeira Liga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Casa Pia at 32% to win and Santa Clara at 38%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Santa Clara win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Santa Clara Win	38%	49%	@ 1.91
Casa Pia Win	32%	22%	@ 4.33
Draw	30%	29%	@ 3.20

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Santa Clara or Draw at 1.18 (66% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Santa Clara or Draw	66%	78%	@ 1.18
Casa Pia or Draw	60%	51%	@ 1.91

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.8-1.3 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 63% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	82%	78%	@ 1.20
Over 1.5	64%	66%	@ 1.40
Under 2.5	63%	60%	@ 1.57
Over 2.5	37%	40%	@ 2.35
Under 1.5	36%	34%	@ 2.75
Over 3.5	18%	22%	@ 4.33

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 59%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	59%	58%	@ 1.62
BTTS Yes	41%	42%	@ 2.20

📈 How the market moved

Casa Pia 22%Draw 29%Santa Clara 49%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?

Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.40, with a 64% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 66%.

Who is the favourite for Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?

Our model makes a Santa Clara win the most likely result at 38%. It projects an expected 0.8-1.3 scoreline for Casa Pia vs Santa Clara.

What is the predicted score for Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-1, based on expected goals of 0.85 for Casa Pia and 1.32 for Santa Clara. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Casa Pia and Santa Clara play?

Kick-off is Saturday 10 October 2026, 14:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.