Sat 10 Oct14:00Upcoming

⚽ Championship

Derby vs Wrexham Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Derby vs Wrexham in the Championship. Kick-off Saturday 10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Derby face Wrexham in the Championship, kicking off Saturday 10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC. Recent form: Derby have 1 win from their last 5, while Wrexham have 2 wins from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Wrexham win the most likely result at 36%, projecting a 1.3-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Derby vs Wrexham with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.30

78%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.26 – 1.16 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.9%	10.3%	6.0%	2.3%	0.7%
1	11.2%	13.0%	7.5%	2.9%	0.8%
2	7.1%	8.2%	4.7%	1.8%	0.5%
3	3.0%	3.4%	2.0%	0.8%	0.2%
4	0.9%	1.1%	0.6%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Derby winDrawWrexham win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Derby vs Wrexham comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.30, with a 78% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Wrexham win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 36%. Goals lean under 2.5 (56%), both teams to score points no (51%).

📊 Key numbers

Derby 35%Draw 29%Wrexham 36%

35%29%36%

36%

Wrexham Win

56%

Under 2.5 goals

51%

BTTS no

📈 Recent form

Derby

Derby come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Portsmouth. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Birmingham.

DBurnley 1-1 DerbyChampionship
LDerby 1-2 BirminghamChampionship
LDerby 0-1 West BromChampionship
LWest Ham 3-0 DerbyChampionship
WPortsmouth 0-2 DerbyChampionship

Wrexham

Wrexham come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Millwall. Their only defeat in that run was 0-6 at West Ham.

WWrexham 2-1 SouthamptonChampionship
LWest Ham 6-0 WrexhamChampionship
DWrexham 1-1 BurnleyChampionship
DSwansea 0-0 WrexhamChampionship
WMillwall 0-3 WrexhamChampionship

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 13 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Derby

P. AgyemangAchilles Tendon Injury
F. BilbijaBack Injury
M. ClarkeCalf Injury
C. ForsythKnee Injury
H. MeisterConcussion
D. MurkinHamstring Injury
J. Widell ZetterstromKnee Injury

Wrexham

N. BroadheadThigh Injury
L. CacaceCalf Injury
M. CleworthMuscle Injury
O. RathboneAnkle Injury
S. RevanHamstring Injury
G. ThomasonThigh Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Derby at 35% to win and Wrexham at 36%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes a Wrexham win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Wrexham Win	36%	36%	@ 2.62
Derby Win	35%	34%	@ 2.75
Draw	29%	30%	@ 3.20

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Wrexham or Draw at 1.40 (64% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Wrexham or Draw	64%	66%	@ 1.40
Derby or Draw	63%	64%	@ 1.44

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.2 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 56% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	78%	73%	@ 1.30
Over 1.5	70%	72%	@ 1.33
Under 2.5	56%	53%	@ 1.80
Over 2.5	44%	47%	@ 2.00
Under 1.5	30%	28%	@ 3.40
Over 3.5	22%	27%	@ 3.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 51%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	51%	46%	@ 2.00
BTTS Yes	49%	54%	@ 1.73

📈 How the market moved

Derby 35%Draw 29%Wrexham 37%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Derby vs Wrexham?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.30, with a 78% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 73%.

Who is the favourite for Derby vs Wrexham?

Our model makes a Wrexham win the most likely result at 36%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.2 scoreline for Derby vs Wrexham.

What is the predicted score for Derby vs Wrexham?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.26 for Derby and 1.16 for Wrexham. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Derby and Wrexham play?

Kick-off is Saturday 10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.