Sat 22 Aug0-2Finished

⚽ Primeira Liga

Estoril vs Rio Ave Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Estoril vs Rio Ave in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Saturday 22 August 2026, 17:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Estoril 0-2 Rio Ave

Estoril vs Rio Ave finished 0-2. Rio Ave won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Estoril face Rio Ave in the upcoming Primeira Liga tips, kicking off Saturday 22 August 2026, 17:00 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Estoril won 2, Rio Ave won 2, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Estoril win the most likely result at 44%, projecting a 1.8-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Estoril vs Rio Ave with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.25

79%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.80 – 1.14 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.3%	6.0%	3.4%	1.3%	0.4%
1	9.5%	10.8%	6.2%	2.3%	0.7%
2	8.6%	9.8%	5.6%	2.1%	0.6%
3	5.1%	5.9%	3.3%	1.3%	0.4%
4	2.3%	2.6%	1.5%	0.6%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Estoril winDrawRio Ave win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Estoril vs Rio Ave comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 79% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Estoril win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 44%. Goals lean over 2.5 (56%), both teams to score points yes (56%).

📊 Key numbers

Estoril 44%Draw 29%Rio Ave 27%

44%29%27%

44%

Estoril Win

56%

Over 2.5 goals

56%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Estoril and Rio Ave. Wins shown from Estoril’s perspective: Estoril 2 · 1 drawn · Rio Ave 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-22	Estoril	0 – 2	Rio Ave	L
2026-03-22	Estoril	1 – 2	Rio Ave	L
2025-11-01	Rio Ave	0 – 4	Estoril	W
2025-02-22	Estoril	2 – 1	Rio Ave	W
2024-09-21	Rio Ave	2 – 2	Estoril	D

📈 Recent form

Estoril

Estoril come into this game with no wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 2 and conceding 7. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Casa Pia.

LEstoril 1-2 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
LSC Braga 1-0 EstorilPrimeira Liga
DEstoril 0-0 AroucaPrimeira Liga
LBenfica 2-1 EstorilPrimeira Liga
LEstoril 0-2 Rio AvePrimeira Liga

Rio Ave

Rio Ave come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Estoril. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Alverca.

LAlverca 1-0 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
DRio Ave 3-3 Estrela da AmadoraPrimeira Liga
LSanta Clara 4-0 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
LRio Ave 0-4 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
WEstoril 0-2 Rio AvePrimeira Liga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Estoril at 44% to win and Rio Ave at 27%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes an Estoril win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Estoril Win	44%	49%	@ 1.91
Draw	29%	26%	@ 3.55
Rio Ave Win	27%	24%	@ 3.85

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Estoril or Draw at 1.21 (71% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Estoril or Draw	71%	76%	@ 1.21
Rio Ave or Draw	54%	51%	@ 1.80

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.8-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 56% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	79%	73%	@ 1.25
Under 3.5	66%	70%	@ 1.30
Over 2.5	56%	50%	@ 1.82
Under 2.5	44%	50%	@ 1.85
Over 3.5	34%	30%	@ 3.05
Under 1.5	21%	27%	@ 3.40

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 56%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	56%	54%	@ 1.70
BTTS No	44%	46%	@ 1.98

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Estoril or Rio Ave is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Rio Ave +2	84%	86%	1.11
Rio Ave +1.75	81%	79%	1.20
Estoril +1	80%	86%	1.10
Rio Ave +1.5	78%	–	@ 1.29
Estoril +0.75	76%	81%	1.17
Rio Ave +1.25	72%	70%	1.35
Estoril +0.5	71%	75%	1.27
Rio Ave +1	66%	66%	1.44
Estoril +0.25	65%	71%	1.34
Rio Ave +0.75	60%	58%	1.66
Estoril 0	58%	66%	1.42
Rio Ave +0.5	54%	51%	@ 1.88
Estoril -0.25	52%	56%	1.71
Rio Ave +0.25	48%	44%	@ 2.17
Estoril -0.5	46%	49%	1.92
Rio Ave 0	42%	34%	@ 2.82
Estoril -0.75	40%	42%	2.32
Rio Ave -0.25	35%	29%	@ 3.29
Estoril -1	34%	34%	2.82
Rio Ave -0.5	29%	25%	@ 3.78
Estoril -1.25	28%	30%	3.19
Rio Ave -0.75	24%	19%	@ 5.00
Rio Ave -1	20%	14%	@ 7.00
Estoril -1.75	19%	21%	4.40
Estoril -2	16%	14%	@ 6.60

📈 How the market moved

Estoril 49%Draw 26%Rio Ave 25%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Estoril vs Rio Ave?

Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 79% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 73%.

Who is the favourite for Estoril vs Rio Ave?

Our model makes an Estoril win the most likely result at 44%. It projects an expected 1.8-1.1 scoreline for Estoril vs Rio Ave.

What is the predicted score for Estoril vs Rio Ave?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.80 for Estoril and 1.14 for Rio Ave. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Estoril and Rio Ave play?

Kick-off is Saturday 22 August 2026, 17:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.