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⚽ Primeira Liga

Famalicão vs Alverca Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Famalicão vs Alverca in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Monday 12 October 2026, 19:15 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Famalicão face Alverca in the Primeira Liga, kicking off Monday 12 October 2026, 19:15 UTC. Recent form: Famalicão have 1 win from their last 5, while Alverca have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 2 meetings, Famalicão won 1, Alverca won 1. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Famalicão win the most likely result at 52%, projecting a 1.5-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Famalicão vs Alverca with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.28

78%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.54 – 0.88 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.9%	7.8%	3.4%	1.0%	0.2%
1	13.7%	12.1%	5.3%	1.6%	0.3%
2	10.5%	9.3%	4.1%	1.2%	0.3%
3	5.4%	4.8%	2.1%	0.6%	0.1%
4	2.1%	1.8%	0.8%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-0

Famalicão winDrawAlverca win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Famalicão vs Alverca comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.28, with a 78% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Famalicão win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 52%. Goals lean under 2.5 (56%), both teams to score points no (54%).

📊 Key numbers

Famalicão 52%Draw 29%Alverca 18%

52%29%18%

52%

Famalicão Win

56%

Under 2.5 goals

54%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Famalicão and Alverca. Wins shown from Famalicão’s perspective: Famalicão 1 · Alverca 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-05-16	Famalicão	1 – 0	Alverca	W
2026-01-04	Alverca	1 – 0	Famalicão	L

📈 Recent form

Famalicão

Famalicão come into this game with 1 win and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Nacional. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at Santa Clara.

WNacional 0-4 FamalicãoPrimeira Liga
DFamalicão 1-1 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
DEstrela da Amadora 2-2 FamalicãoPrimeira Liga
DFamalicão 0-0 Gil VicentePrimeira Liga
LSanta Clara 1-0 FamalicãoPrimeira Liga

Alverca

Alverca come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Nacional. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to SC Braga.

WAlverca 1-0 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
WNacional 1-3 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
LAlverca 1-2 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
DAlverca 1-1 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
LSporting CP 3-1 AlvercaPrimeira Liga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Famalicão at 52% to win and Alverca at 18%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes a Famalicão win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Famalicão Win	52%	51%	@ 1.83
Draw	29%	28%	@ 3.40
Alverca Win	18%	21%	@ 4.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Famalicão or Draw at 1.18 (79% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Famalicão or Draw	79%	79%	@ 1.18
Alverca or Draw	45%	49%	@ 1.95

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-0.9 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 56% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	78%	73%	@ 1.28
Over 1.5	70%	71%	@ 1.33
Under 2.5	56%	54%	@ 1.75
Over 2.5	44%	46%	@ 2.05
Under 1.5	30%	29%	@ 3.25
Over 3.5	22%	27%	@ 3.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 54%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	54%	52%	@ 1.80
BTTS Yes	46%	48%	@ 1.95

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Famalicão vs Alverca?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.28, with a 78% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 73%.

Who is the favourite for Famalicão vs Alverca?

Our model makes a Famalicão win the most likely result at 52%. It projects an expected 1.5-0.9 scoreline for Famalicão vs Alverca.

What is the predicted score for Famalicão vs Alverca?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.54 for Famalicão and 0.88 for Alverca. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Famalicão and Alverca play?

Kick-off is Monday 12 October 2026, 19:15 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.