⚽ Primeira Liga

Famalicao vs Maritimo Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Famalicao vs Maritimo in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Sunday 16 August 2026, 19:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers All markets FAQ

Famalicao face Maritimo in the Primeira Liga, kicking off Sunday 16 August 2026, 19:30 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Famalicao win the most likely result at 52%, projecting a 1.4-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Famalicao vs Maritimo with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.28

79%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.38 – 0.98 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.4%	9.3%	4.5%	1.5%	0.4%
1	13.0%	12.8%	6.3%	2.0%	0.5%
2	9.0%	8.8%	4.3%	1.4%	0.3%
3	4.1%	4.1%	2.0%	0.6%	0.2%
4	1.4%	1.4%	0.7%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-0

Famalicao winDrawMaritimo win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Famalicao vs Maritimo is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.28, the selection our model is most confident in at 79%. On the match result, the model rates a Famalicao win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 52%. Goals lean under 2.5 (58%), both teams to score points no (53%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is under 2.5 goals at odds 1.80 (+4.4% model value).

Best value

Under 2.5 at odds 1.80, 58% model probability, +4.4% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Famalicao 52%Draw 30%Maritimo 18%

52%30%18%

52%

Famalicao Win

58%

Under 2.5 goals

53%

BTTS no

+4.4%

Best value: Under 2.5

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Famalicao at 52% to win and Maritimo at 18%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Famalicao win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	30%	@ 3.55	+4.8%
Famalicao Win	52%	@ 1.80	-5.6%
Maritimo Win	18%	@ 4.30	-22.4%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Famalicao or Draw at 1.20 (79% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Famalicao or Draw	79%	@ 1.20	-5.2%
Maritimo or Draw	45%	@ 1.95	-12.9%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.0 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 58% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 2.5	58%	@ 1.80	+4.4%
Under 1.5	32%	@ 3.25	+3.1%
Under 3.5	79%	@ 1.28	+0.7%
Over 1.5	68%	@ 1.33	-9.2%
Over 2.5	42%	@ 2.00	-16.0%
Over 3.5	21%	@ 3.55	-24.4%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 53%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	53%	@ 1.85	-1.5%
BTTS Yes	47%	@ 1.85	-13.5%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	46%
GradientBoosting	Home	55%

Both models that could assess this match agree. Our Dixon-Coles model has no reliable team ratings for this competition and was left out, so this rests on two models rather than three.

Expected goals: 1.73 for the home side, 0.97 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (13%), 0-0 (9%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Famalicao vs Maritimo?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.28, with 79% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is under 2.5 goals at 1.80 (+4.4% value).

Who is the favourite for Famalicao vs Maritimo?

Our model makes a Famalicao win the most likely result at 52%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.0 scoreline for Famalicao vs Maritimo.

What is the predicted score for Famalicao vs Maritimo?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.38 for Famalicao and 0.98 for Maritimo. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Famalicao and Maritimo play?

Kick-off is Sunday 16 August 2026, 19:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.