Sun 23 Aug2-0Finished

⚽ Primeira Liga

FC Porto vs Arouca Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for FC Porto vs Arouca in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Sunday 23 August 2026, 19:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: FC Porto 2-0 Arouca

FC Porto vs Arouca finished 2-0. FC Porto won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

FC Porto face Arouca in the upcoming Primeira Liga tips, kicking off Sunday 23 August 2026, 19:30 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, FC Porto won 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a FC Porto win the most likely result at 75%, projecting a 2.2-0.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for FC Porto vs Arouca with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

FC Porto -0.75 @ 1.25

68%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.18 – 0.81 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.0%	4.1%	1.6%	0.4%	0.1%
1	11.0%	8.9%	3.6%	1.0%	0.2%
2	11.9%	9.7%	3.9%	1.1%	0.2%
3	8.7%	7.0%	2.8%	0.8%	0.2%
4	4.7%	3.8%	1.6%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 2-0

FC Porto winDrawArouca win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for FC Porto vs Arouca comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is FC Porto to win by 1+ goals at odds 1.25, with a 68% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a FC Porto win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 75%. Goals lean over 2.5 (57%), both teams to score points no (51%).

📊 Key numbers

FC Porto 75%Draw 15%Arouca 10%

75%15%10%

75%

FC Porto Win

57%

Over 2.5 goals

51%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between FC Porto and Arouca. Wins shown from FC Porto’s perspective: FC Porto 5.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-23	FC Porto	2 – 0	Arouca	W
2026-02-27	FC Porto	3 – 1	Arouca	W
2025-09-29	Arouca	0 – 4	FC Porto	W
2025-03-01	Arouca	0 – 2	FC Porto	W
2024-09-29	FC Porto	4 – 0	Arouca	W

📈 Recent form

FC Porto

FC Porto come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at Casa Pia. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at home to Manchester City.

WFC Porto 3-1 BenficaPrimeira Liga
WCasa Pia 1-4 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
LFC Porto 0-2 Manchester CityUEFA Champions League
WFC Porto 2-1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
WAcadémico de Viseu 0-3 FC PortoPrimeira Liga

Arouca

Arouca come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Marítimo. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Santa Clara.

DSporting CP 2-2 AroucaPrimeira Liga
LArouca 1-2 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
DEstoril 0-0 AroucaPrimeira Liga
WArouca 2-1 MarítimoPrimeira Liga
LFC Porto 2-0 AroucaPrimeira Liga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices FC Porto at 75% to win and Arouca at 10%, with the draw at 15%. Our model makes a FC Porto win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
FC Porto Win	75%	81%	@ 1.17
Draw	15%	13%	@ 7.00
Arouca Win	10%	6%	@ 16.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is FC Porto or Draw at 1.01 (90% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
FC Porto or Draw	90%	94%	@ 1.01
Arouca or Draw	26%	19%	@ 4.00

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.2-0.8 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 57% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	80%	79%	@ 1.16
Under 3.5	65%	62%	@ 1.49
Over 2.5	57%	59%	@ 1.56
Under 2.5	43%	41%	@ 2.23
Over 3.5	35%	38%	@ 2.40
Under 1.5	20%	21%	@ 4.30

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 51%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	51%	62%	@ 1.47
BTTS Yes	49%	38%	@ 2.43

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when FC Porto or Arouca is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
FC Porto -0.25	78%	84%	1.13
FC Porto -0.5	74%	77%	1.22
FC Porto -0.75	68%	–	1.25
FC Porto -1	62%	73%	1.31
Arouca +2	60%	56%	@ 1.71
FC Porto -1.25	56%	63%	1.50
Arouca +1.75	55%	49%	@ 1.99
FC Porto -1.5	51%	58%	1.62
Arouca +1.5	49%	42%	@ 2.24
FC Porto -1.75	45%	51%	1.88
Arouca +1.25	44%	37%	@ 2.59
FC Porto -2	40%	44%	2.14
Arouca +1	38%	27%	@ 3.46
Arouca +0.5	26%	23%	@ 4.15
Arouca +0.25	22%	16%	@ 5.90

📈 How the market moved

FC Porto 79%Draw 15%Arouca 7%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for FC Porto vs Arouca?

Our model's main pick is FC Porto to win by 1+ goals at odds 1.25, with a 68% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 80%.

Who is the favourite for FC Porto vs Arouca?

Our model makes a FC Porto win the most likely result at 75%. It projects an expected 2.2-0.8 scoreline for FC Porto vs Arouca.

What is the predicted score for FC Porto vs Arouca?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-0, based on expected goals of 2.18 for FC Porto and 0.81 for Arouca. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do FC Porto and Arouca play?

Kick-off is Sunday 23 August 2026, 19:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.