Tue 18 Aug1-1Finished

⚽ UEFA Champions League

Fenerbahçe vs Lyon Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Fenerbahçe vs Lyon in the UEFA Champions League. Kick-off Tuesday 18 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Fenerbahçe 1-1 Lyon

Fenerbahçe vs Lyon finished 1-1. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Fenerbahçe face Lyon in the upcoming UEFA Champions League tips, kicking off Tuesday 18 August 2026, 19:00 UTC. In their last 3 meetings, Fenerbahçe won 1, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Fenerbahçe win the most likely result at 44%, projecting a 2.0-0.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Fenerbahçe vs Lyon with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Fenerbahçe or Draw @ 1.30

76%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.99 – 0.84 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.9%	5.0%	2.1%	0.6%	0.1%
1	11.7%	9.9%	4.1%	1.2%	0.2%
2	11.7%	9.8%	4.1%	1.2%	0.2%
3	7.8%	6.5%	2.7%	0.8%	0.2%
4	3.9%	3.2%	1.4%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-0

Fenerbahçe winDrawLyon win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Fenerbahçe vs Lyon comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Fenerbahçe or Draw at odds 1.30, with a 76% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Fenerbahçe win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 44%. Goals lean over 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points no (51%).

📊 Key numbers

Fenerbahçe 44%Draw 37%Lyon 18%

44%37%18%

44%

Fenerbahçe Win

54%

Over 2.5 goals

51%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 3 meetings between Fenerbahçe and Lyon. Wins shown from Fenerbahçe’s perspective: Fenerbahçe 1 · 2 drawn.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-26	Lyon	1 – 2	Fenerbahçe	W
2026-08-18	Fenerbahçe	1 – 1	Lyon	D
2025-01-23	Fenerbahçe	0 – 0	Lyon	D

📈 Recent form

Fenerbahçe

Fenerbahçe come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 8-0 at home to Eyüpspor. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to Beşiktaş.

WFenerbahçe 8-0 EyüpsporSüper Lig
DGaziantep FK 0-0 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
DFenerbahçe 1-1 AS RomaUEFA Champions League
LFenerbahçe 1-2 BeşiktaşSüper Lig
WSamsunspor 0-2 FenerbahçeSüper Lig

Lyon

Lyon come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Rennes.

WLyon 4-0 RennesLigue 1
WAnderlecht 1-2 LyonUEFA Europa League
DParis FC 0-0 LyonLigue 1
WLyon 3-1 AuxerreLigue 1
DLyon 1-1 Le HavreLigue 1

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 15 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Fenerbahçe

E. DemirNot in squad
Diego CarlosNot in squad
O. FayedNot in squad
M. GunokMuscle Injury
D. LivakovicTransfer negotiations
O. MimovicNot in squad
J. OosterwoldeAchilles Tendon Injury
Rodrigo BecaoNot in squad

Lyon

K. MerahAnkle Injury
P. SulcKnee Injury
N. TagliaficoNot in squad

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Fenerbahçe at 44% to win and Lyon at 18%, with the draw at 37%. Our model makes a Fenerbahçe win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Fenerbahçe Win	44%	46%	@ 2.02
Draw	37%	27%	@ 3.50
Lyon Win	18%	27%	@ 3.40

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Fenerbahçe or Draw at 1.30 (76% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Fenerbahçe or Draw	76%	73%	@ 1.30
Lyon or Draw	49%	54%	@ 1.76

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.0-0.8 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 54% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	77%	76%	@ 1.22
Under 3.5	68%	68%	@ 1.37
Over 2.5	54%	53%	@ 1.75
Under 2.5	46%	47%	@ 1.98
Over 3.5	32%	32%	@ 2.90
Under 1.5	23%	24%	@ 3.90

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 51%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	51%	43%	@ 2.12
BTTS Yes	49%	57%	@ 1.63

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Fenerbahçe or Lyon is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Fenerbahçe +1.5	91%	–	1.09
Fenerbahçe +1.25	87%	86%	1.10
Fenerbahçe +1	83%	85%	1.12
Lyon +2	81%	85%	1.12
Fenerbahçe +0.75	79%	78%	1.21
Lyon +1.75	77%	78%	1.21
Fenerbahçe +0.5	76%	–	1.30
Lyon +1.5	73%	73%	1.28
Fenerbahçe +0.25	69%	70%	1.36
Lyon +1.25	67%	70%	1.34
Fenerbahçe 0	63%	63%	1.50
Lyon +1	61%	67%	1.42
Fenerbahçe -0.25	57%	55%	1.73
Lyon +0.75	55%	59%	1.62
Fenerbahçe -0.5	51%	48%	@ 1.98
Lyon +0.5	49%	52%	1.80
Fenerbahçe -0.75	45%	41%	@ 2.29
Lyon +0.25	43%	45%	2.11
Fenerbahçe -1	39%	33%	@ 2.84
Lyon 0	37%	37%	2.56
Fenerbahçe -1.25	33%	30%	@ 3.21
Lyon -0.25	31%	30%	3.12
Fenerbahçe -1.5	27%	27%	3.54
Fenerbahçe -1.75	23%	22%	4.25
Lyon -0.75	21%	22%	4.31
Fenerbahçe -2	19%	15%	@ 6.25
Lyon -1	17%	15%	@ 6.40
Lyon -1.25	13%	14%	7.00

📈 How the market moved

Fenerbahçe 46%Draw 26%Lyon 28%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Fenerbahçe vs Lyon?

Our model's main pick is Fenerbahçe or Draw at odds 1.30, with a 76% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 73%.

Who is the favourite for Fenerbahçe vs Lyon?

Our model makes a Fenerbahçe win the most likely result at 44%. It projects an expected 2.0-0.8 scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Lyon.

What is the predicted score for Fenerbahçe vs Lyon?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.99 for Fenerbahçe and 0.84 for Lyon. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Fenerbahçe and Lyon play?

Kick-off is Tuesday 18 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.