France

Mon 5 Oct4-1Finished

Belgium

⚽ UEFA Nations League

France vs Belgium Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for France vs Belgium in the UEFA Nations League. Kick-off Monday 05 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Market view Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: France 4-1 Belgium

France vs Belgium finished 4-1. France won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

France face Belgium in the upcoming UEFA Nations League tips, kicking off Monday 05 October 2026, 18:45 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, France won 2. The bookmaker market makes a France win the most likely result at 62%, implying a 2.2-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the market view, a score probability heatmap and every betting market for France vs Belgium with probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

📈 Market view

We don’t publish a pick for this match. In our own testing, our model did not beat the bookmaker market in this competition, so this page shows the market’s view: probabilities implied by the odds, with the bookmaker margin removed. See today’s picks for the matches we do cover.

Outcome	Market %
France win	62%
Draw	20%
Belgium win	18%
Over 2.5 goals	64%
Both teams to score	59%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (market-implied, exp. 2.20 – 1.10 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.7%	4.1%	2.2%	0.8%	0.2%
1	8.1%	8.9%	4.9%	1.8%	0.5%
2	8.9%	9.8%	5.4%	2.0%	0.5%
3	6.5%	7.2%	4.0%	1.5%	0.4%
4	3.6%	4.0%	2.2%	0.8%	0.2%

Projected score: 2-1

France winDrawBelgium win

🧠 Market summary

This page shows the bookmaker market’s view of France vs Belgium. Based on the bookmaker odds, a France win is the most likely result at 62%. Goals lean over 2.5 at 64%. Both teams to score: yes at 59%.

📊 Key numbers

France 62%Draw 20%Belgium 18%

62%20%18%

62%

France Win

64%

Over 2.5 goals

59%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between France and Belgium. Wins shown from France’s perspective: France 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-10-05	France	4 – 1	Belgium	W
2026-09-28	Belgium	0 – 1	France	W

📈 Recent form

France

France come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at home to Belgium. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WFrance 4-1 BelgiumUEFA Nations League
DFrance 1-1 ItalyUEFA Nations League
WBelgium 0-1 FranceUEFA Nations League
WTürkiye 0-1 FranceUEFA Nations League
WFrance 3-1 Northern IrelandFriendlies

Belgium

Belgium come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at home to Tunisia. Their most recent defeat was 1-4 at France.

LFrance 4-1 BelgiumUEFA Nations League
WBelgium 3-0 TürkiyeUEFA Nations League
LBelgium 0-1 FranceUEFA Nations League
WItaly 0-2 BelgiumUEFA Nations League
WBelgium 5-0 TunisiaFriendlies

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices France at 62% to win and Belgium at 18%, with the draw at 20%. The bookmaker market makes a France win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Market %	Odds
France Win	62%	@ 1.53
Draw	20%	@ 4.75
Belgium Win	18%	@ 5.25

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is France or Draw at 1.17 (82% market).

Selection	Market %	Odds
France or Draw	82%	@ 1.17
Belgium or Draw	38%	@ 2.38

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals implied by the odds point to an expected 2.2-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 64% probability.

Selection	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	83%	@ 1.14
Over 2.5	64%	@ 1.48
Under 3.5	56%	@ 1.67
Over 3.5	44%	@ 2.10
Under 2.5	36%	@ 2.60
Under 1.5	17%	@ 5.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. The market leans towards both teams to score at 59%.

Selection	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	59%	@ 1.57
BTTS No	41%	@ 2.25

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for France vs Belgium?

We don't publish a pick for this match. Based on the bookmaker odds, a France win is the most likely result at 62%.

Who is the favourite for France vs Belgium?

Our model makes a France win the most likely result at 62%. It projects an expected 2.2-1.1 scoreline for France vs Belgium.

What is the predicted score for France vs Belgium?

The most likely scoreline implied by the bookmaker odds is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.20 for France and 1.10 for Belgium. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do France and Belgium play?

Kick-off is Monday 05 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

For this competition we show probabilities implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed. In our own testing our model did not beat the market here, so we don't publish model picks for it. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.