⚽ Primeira Liga

GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Monday 24 August 2026, 19:15 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

GIL Vicente face Casa Pia in the Primeira Liga, kicking off Monday 24 August 2026, 19:15 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, GIL Vicente won 1, Casa Pia won 1, 3 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a GIL Vicente win the most likely result at 47%, projecting a 1.6-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.42

73%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.59 – 0.99 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.6%	7.5%	3.7%	1.2%	0.3%
1	12.0%	11.9%	5.9%	1.9%	0.5%
2	9.6%	9.5%	4.7%	1.5%	0.4%
3	5.1%	5.0%	2.5%	0.8%	0.2%
4	2.0%	2.0%	1.0%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-0

GIL Vicente winDrawCasa Pia win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.42, the selection our model is most confident in at 73%. On the match result, the model rates a GIL Vicente win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 47%. Goals lean under 2.5 (52%), both teams to score points no (50%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Casa Pia or Draw at odds 2.10 (+6.0% model value).

Best value

Casa Pia or Draw at odds 2.10, 50% model probability, +6.0% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

GIL Vicente 47%Draw 30%Casa Pia 23%

47%30%23%

47%

GIL Vicente Win

52%

Under 2.5 goals

50%

BTTS no

+6.0%

Best value: Casa Pia or Draw

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between GIL Vicente and Casa Pia. Wins shown from GIL Vicente’s perspective: GIL Vicente 1 · 3 drawn · Casa Pia 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-04-27	GIL Vicente	2 – 1	Casa Pia	W
2025-12-13	Casa Pia	1 – 1	GIL Vicente	D
2025-02-22	Casa Pia	1 – 0	GIL Vicente	L
2024-09-22	GIL Vicente	1 – 1	Casa Pia	D
2024-03-03	Casa Pia	0 – 0	GIL Vicente	D

📈 Recent form

GIL Vicente

GIL Vicente come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 9. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Rio Ave. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at Sporting CP.

WGIL Vicente 1-0 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
DGIL Vicente 2-2 MoreirenseFriendlies Clubs
DGIL Vicente 1-1 Felgueiras 1932Friendlies Clubs
LSporting CP 3-0 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
LGIL Vicente 1-3 AroucaPrimeira Liga

Casa Pia

Casa Pia come into this game with 1 win from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 16. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Estrela. Their most recent defeat was 0-7 at home to Benfica.

LCasa Pia 0-7 BenficaPrimeira Liga
LMaritimo 1-0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
LLeixoes 6-2 Casa PiaFriendlies Clubs
LBenfica B 1-0 Casa PiaFriendlies Clubs
WEstrela 1-2 Casa PiaFriendlies Clubs

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices GIL Vicente at 47% to win and Casa Pia at 23%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a GIL Vicente win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Casa Pia Win	23%	@ 5.40	+22.9%
Draw	30%	@ 3.40	+3.2%
GIL Vicente Win	47%	@ 1.70	-20.3%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Casa Pia or Draw at 2.10 (50% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Casa Pia or Draw	50%	@ 2.10	+6.0%
GIL Vicente or Draw	75%	@ 1.14	-15.0%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.0 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 52% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	26%	@ 4.33	+12.4%
Over 2.5	48%	@ 2.25	+7.2%
Over 1.5	73%	@ 1.42	+3.5%
Under 3.5	74%	@ 1.20	-11.2%
Under 2.5	52%	@ 1.62	-15.2%
Under 1.5	27%	@ 2.80	-24.0%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 50%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	50%	@ 2.10	+4.7%
BTTS No	50%	@ 1.65	-17.3%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	50%
Dixon-Coles	Home	53%
GradientBoosting	Home	44%

All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.

Expected goals: 1.58 for the home side, 1.06 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (10%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia?

Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.42, with 73% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Casa Pia or Draw at 2.10 (+6.0% value).

Who is the favourite for GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia?

Our model makes a GIL Vicente win the most likely result at 47%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.0 scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia.

What is the predicted score for GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.59 for GIL Vicente and 0.99 for Casa Pia. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do GIL Vicente and Casa Pia play?

Kick-off is Monday 24 August 2026, 19:15 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.