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⚽ UEFA Champions League
Levski Sofia vs AEK Athens FC Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Levski Sofia vs AEK Athens FC in the UEFA Champions League. Kick-off Tuesday 18 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Levski Sofia face AEK Athens FC in the UEFA Champions League, kicking off Tuesday 18 August 2026, 19:00 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Levski Sofia win the most likely result at 49%, projecting a 2.0-0.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Levski Sofia vs AEK Athens FC with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1% | 3.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 18.1% | 7.4% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 2 | 18.0% | 7.4% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 11.9% | 4.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 5.9% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Levski Sofia vs AEK Athens FC is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is both teams not to score at odds 1.85, the selection our model is most confident in at 71%. On the match result, the model rates a Levski Sofia win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 49%. Goals lean under 2.5 (57%), both teams to score points no (71%).
📊 Key numbers
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Levski Sofia at 49% to win and AEK Athens FC at 23%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Levski Sofia win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Levski Sofia Win | 49% | @ 2.92 | +44.4% |
| Draw | 28% | @ 3.25 | -10.1% |
| AEK Athens FC Win | 23% | @ 2.38 | -45.5% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Levski Sofia or Draw at 1.55 (76% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Levski Sofia or Draw | 76% | @ 1.55 | +17.2% |
| AEK Athens FC or Draw | 49% | @ 1.38 | -32.2% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.0-0.4 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 57% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 78% | @ 1.25 | -2.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | @ 1.70 | -3.1% |
| Under 1.5 | 31% | @ 3.10 | -4.4% |
| Over 1.5 | 69% | @ 1.36 | -6.0% |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | @ 2.10 | -9.6% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | @ 3.80 | -15.9% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 71%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 71% | @ 1.85 | +31.7% |
| BTTS Yes | 29% | @ 1.80 | -48.2% |
🔬 How our AI model reached this pick
| Model | Match result | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Poisson | Home | 75% |
| GradientBoosting | Home | 41% |
Both models that could assess this match agree. Our Dixon-Coles model has no reliable team ratings for this competition and was left out, so this rests on two models rather than three.
Expected goals: 1.62 for the home side, 1.04 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (18%), 2-0 (18%), 3-0 (12%).
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Levski Sofia vs AEK Athens FC?
Our main pick is both teams not to score at odds 1.85, with 71% model confidence.
Who is the favourite for Levski Sofia vs AEK Athens FC?
Our model makes a Levski Sofia win the most likely result at 49%. It projects an expected 2.0-0.4 scoreline for Levski Sofia vs AEK Athens FC.
What is the predicted score for Levski Sofia vs AEK Athens FC?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.99 for Levski Sofia and 0.41 for AEK Athens FC. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Levski Sofia and AEK Athens FC play?
Kick-off is Tuesday 18 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.