Sun 11 Oct15:30Upcoming

⚽ Premier League

Liverpool vs Manchester City Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Liverpool vs Manchester City in the Premier League. Kick-off Sunday 11 October 2026, 15:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Liverpool face Manchester City in the Premier League, kicking off Sunday 11 October 2026, 15:30 UTC. Recent form: Liverpool have 2 wins from their last 5, while Manchester City have 5 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Liverpool won 2, Manchester City won 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Manchester City win the most likely result at 45%, projecting a 1.4-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Liverpool vs Manchester City with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Manchester City or Draw @ 1.50

71%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.42 – 1.62 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.8%	7.7%	6.3%	3.4%	1.4%
1	6.8%	11.0%	8.9%	4.8%	1.9%
2	4.8%	7.8%	6.3%	3.4%	1.4%
3	2.3%	3.7%	3.0%	1.6%	0.7%
4	0.8%	1.3%	1.1%	0.6%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Liverpool winDrawManchester City win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Liverpool vs Manchester City comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Manchester City or Draw at odds 1.50, with a 71% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Manchester City win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 45%. Goals lean over 2.5 (59%), both teams to score points yes (61%).

📊 Key numbers

Liverpool 28%Draw 27%Manchester City 45%

28%27%45%

45%

Manchester City Win

59%

Over 2.5 goals

61%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Liverpool and Manchester City. Wins shown from Liverpool’s perspective: Liverpool 2 · Manchester City 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-04-04	Manchester City	4 – 0	Liverpool	L
2026-02-08	Liverpool	1 – 2	Manchester City	L
2025-11-09	Manchester City	3 – 0	Liverpool	L
2025-02-23	Manchester City	0 – 2	Liverpool	W
2024-12-01	Liverpool	2 – 0	Manchester City	W

📈 Recent form

Liverpool

Liverpool come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 2. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Tottenham.

WBournemouth 0-1 LiverpoolPremier League
WLiverpool 3-1 TottenhamLeague Cup
DLiverpool 0-0 FulhamPremier League
WLiverpool 2-1 Atlético MadridUEFA Champions League
WIpswich 0-2 LiverpoolPremier League

Manchester City

Manchester City come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 14 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at home to Norwich. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WManchester City 5-3 SunderlandPremier League
WManchester City 5-0 NorwichLeague Cup
WManchester United 0-1 Manchester CityPremier League
WFC Porto 0-2 Manchester CityUEFA Champions League
WManchester City 1-0 CoventryPremier League

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Liverpool at 28% to win and Manchester City at 45%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a Manchester City win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Manchester City Win	45%	37%	@ 2.60
Liverpool Win	28%	37%	@ 2.60
Draw	27%	27%	@ 3.60

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Manchester City or Draw at 1.50 (71% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Manchester City or Draw	71%	63%	@ 1.50
Liverpool or Draw	55%	63%	@ 1.50

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.6 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 59% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	81%	81%	@ 1.17
Under 3.5	64%	60%	@ 1.57
Over 2.5	59%	60%	@ 1.57
Under 2.5	41%	40%	@ 2.38
Over 3.5	36%	40%	@ 2.38
Under 1.5	19%	19%	@ 5.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 61%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	61%	62%	@ 1.50
BTTS No	39%	38%	@ 2.50

📈 How the market moved

Liverpool 37%Draw 26%Manchester City 37%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Liverpool vs Manchester City?

Our model's main pick is Manchester City or Draw at odds 1.50, with a 71% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 63%.

Who is the favourite for Liverpool vs Manchester City?

Our model makes a Manchester City win the most likely result at 45%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.6 scoreline for Liverpool vs Manchester City.

What is the predicted score for Liverpool vs Manchester City?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.42 for Liverpool and 1.62 for Manchester City. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Liverpool and Manchester City play?

Kick-off is Sunday 11 October 2026, 15:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.