Luxembourg

Tue 6 Oct0-2Finished

Bulgaria

⚽ UEFA Nations League

Luxembourg vs Bulgaria Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Luxembourg vs Bulgaria in the UEFA Nations League. Kick-off Tuesday 06 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Market view Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Luxembourg 0-2 Bulgaria

Luxembourg vs Bulgaria finished 0-2. Bulgaria won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Luxembourg face Bulgaria in the upcoming UEFA Nations League tips, kicking off Tuesday 06 October 2026, 18:45 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, Luxembourg won 1, Bulgaria won 1. The bookmaker market makes a Luxembourg win the most likely result at 44%, implying a 1.3-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the market view, a score probability heatmap and every betting market for Luxembourg vs Bulgaria with probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

📈 Market view

We don’t publish a pick for this match. In our own testing, our model did not beat the bookmaker market in this competition, so this page shows the market’s view: probabilities implied by the odds, with the bookmaker margin removed. See today’s picks for the matches we do cover.

Outcome	Market %
Luxembourg win	44%
Draw	28%
Bulgaria win	28%
Over 2.5 goals	39%
Both teams to score	42%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (market-implied, exp. 1.30 – 0.95 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.5%	10.0%	4.8%	1.5%	0.4%
1	13.7%	13.0%	6.2%	2.0%	0.5%
2	8.9%	8.5%	4.0%	1.3%	0.3%
3	3.9%	3.7%	1.7%	0.6%	0.1%
4	1.3%	1.2%	0.6%	0.2%	0.0%

Projected score: 1-0

Luxembourg winDrawBulgaria win

🧠 Market summary

This page shows the bookmaker market’s view of Luxembourg vs Bulgaria. Based on the bookmaker odds, a Luxembourg win is the most likely result at 44%. Goals lean under 2.5 at 61%. Both teams to score: no at 58%.

📊 Key numbers

Luxembourg 44%Draw 28%Bulgaria 28%

44%28%28%

44%

Luxembourg Win

61%

Under 2.5 goals

58%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Luxembourg and Bulgaria. Wins shown from Luxembourg’s perspective: Luxembourg 1 · Bulgaria 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-10-06	Luxembourg	0 – 2	Bulgaria	L
2026-09-26	Bulgaria	1 – 2	Luxembourg	W

📈 Recent form

Luxembourg

Luxembourg come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Bulgaria. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at home to Bulgaria.

LLuxembourg 0-2 BulgariaUEFA Nations League
LEstonia 1-0 LuxembourgUEFA Nations League
LLuxembourg 0-3 IcelandUEFA Nations League
WBulgaria 1-2 LuxembourgUEFA Nations League
WAlbania 0-1 LuxembourgFriendlies

Bulgaria

Bulgaria come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Luxembourg. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at Iceland.

WLuxembourg 0-2 BulgariaUEFA Nations League
LIceland 3-0 BulgariaUEFA Nations League
DBulgaria 0-0 EstoniaUEFA Nations League
LBulgaria 1-2 LuxembourgUEFA Nations League
DMoldova 2-2 BulgariaFriendlies

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Luxembourg at 44% to win and Bulgaria at 28%, with the draw at 28%. The bookmaker market makes a Luxembourg win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Market %	Odds
Luxembourg Win	44%	@ 2.10
Bulgaria Win	28%	@ 3.25
Draw	28%	@ 3.30

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Luxembourg or Draw at 1.33 (72% market).

Selection	Market %	Odds
Luxembourg or Draw	72%	@ 1.33
Bulgaria or Draw	56%	@ 1.67

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals implied by the odds point to an expected 1.3-0.9 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 61% probability.

Selection	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	79%	@ 1.17
Over 1.5	65%	@ 1.44
Under 2.5	61%	@ 1.53
Over 2.5	39%	@ 2.38
Under 1.5	35%	@ 2.62
Over 3.5	21%	@ 4.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. The market leans towards both teams not to score at 58%.

Selection	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	58%	@ 1.62
BTTS Yes	42%	@ 2.20

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Luxembourg vs Bulgaria?

We don't publish a pick for this match. Based on the bookmaker odds, a Luxembourg win is the most likely result at 44%.

Who is the favourite for Luxembourg vs Bulgaria?

Our model makes a Luxembourg win the most likely result at 44%. It projects an expected 1.3-0.9 scoreline for Luxembourg vs Bulgaria.

What is the predicted score for Luxembourg vs Bulgaria?

The most likely scoreline implied by the bookmaker odds is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.30 for Luxembourg and 0.95 for Bulgaria. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Luxembourg and Bulgaria play?

Kick-off is Tuesday 06 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

For this competition we show probabilities implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed. In our own testing our model did not beat the market here, so we don't publish model picks for it. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.