vs
⚽ UEFA Champions League
Lyon vs Fenerbahçe Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Lyon vs Fenerbahçe in the UEFA Champions League. Kick-off Wednesday 26 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Result: Lyon 1-2 Fenerbahçe
Lyon vs Fenerbahçe finished 1-2. Fenerbahçe won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, Fenerbahçe Asian Handicap with a +1.5 start at 1.31, landed.
Lyon face Fenerbahçe in the upcoming UEFA Champions League tips, kicking off Wednesday 26 August 2026, 19:00 UTC. In their last 3 meetings, Fenerbahçe won 1, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Lyon win the most likely result at 39%, projecting a 1.6-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Lyon vs Fenerbahçe with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 8.2% | 11.1% | 7.6% | 3.4% | 1.2% |
| 2 | 6.7% | 9.1% | 6.2% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 3.6% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Lyon vs Fenerbahçe is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Fenerbahçe Asian Handicap with a +1.5 start at odds 1.31, the selection our model is most confident in at 81%. On the match result, the model rates a Lyon win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 39%. Goals lean over 2.5 (58%), both teams to score points yes (60%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Fenerbahçe with a +0.25 start at odds 2.21 (+16.7% model value).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 3 meetings between Lyon and Fenerbahçe. Wins shown from Lyon’s perspective: 2 drawn · Fenerbahçe 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Lyon | 1 – 2 | Fenerbahçe | L |
| 2026-08-18 | Fenerbahçe | 1 – 1 | Lyon | D |
| 2025-01-23 | Fenerbahçe | 0 – 0 | Lyon | D |
📈 Recent form
Lyon come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Sparta Praha. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Fenerbahçe.
- LLyon 1-2 FenerbahçeUEFA Champions League
- WToulouse 0-2 LyonLigue 1
- DFenerbahçe 1-1 LyonUEFA Champions League
- WLyon 3-0 Sparta PrahaUEFA Champions League
- LSparta Praha 2-1 LyonUEFA Champions League
Fenerbahçe come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 4-2 at home to Konyaspor. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Gençlerbirliği S.K..
- WLyon 1-2 FenerbahçeUEFA Champions League
- WFenerbahçe 4-2 KonyasporSüper Lig
- DFenerbahçe 1-1 LyonUEFA Champions League
- LGençlerbirliği S.K. 2-1 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
- WSturm Graz 0-1 FenerbahçeUEFA Champions League
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 14 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- K. MerahAnkle Injury
- K. AkturkogluConcussion
- M. AsensioMuscle Injury
- Diego CarlosNot in squad
- A. DioufLacking Match Fitness
- M. GunokMuscle Injury
- D. LivakovicTransfer negotiations
- O. MimovicNot in squad
- J. OosterwoldeAchilles Tendon Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Lyon at 39% to win and Fenerbahçe at 31%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Lyon win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahçe Win | 31% | @ 3.77 | +16.4% |
| Draw | 30% | @ 3.53 | +7.6% |
| Lyon Win | 39% | @ 1.89 | -27.0% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Fenerbahçe or Draw at 1.85 (59% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahçe or Draw | 59% | @ 1.85 | +9.5% |
| Lyon or Draw | 67% | @ 1.23 | -17.5% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 58% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 58% | @ 1.77 | +1.7% |
| Over 3.5 | 35% | @ 2.86 | +0.2% |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | @ 1.22 | -2.3% |
| Under 3.5 | 65% | @ 1.40 | -9.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | @ 2.04 | -13.3% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 60%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 60% | @ 1.67 | -0.1% |
| BTTS No | 40% | @ 2.07 | -16.8% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Lyon or Fenerbahçe is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahçe -0.75 | 28% | @ 4.80 | +35.2% |
| Fenerbahçe 0 | 46% | @ 2.85 | +31.6% |
| Fenerbahçe -0.25 | 40% | @ 3.31 | +30.6% |
| Fenerbahçe -0.5 | 33% | @ 3.66 | +20.5% |
| Fenerbahçe +0.25 | 53% | @ 2.21 | +16.7% |
| Fenerbahçe +0.5 | 59% | @ 1.87 | +11.0% |
| Fenerbahçe +0.75 | 65% | @ 1.68 | +8.7% |
| Fenerbahçe +1.5 | 81% | @ 1.31 | +6.1% |
| Fenerbahçe +1.25 | 76% | @ 1.38 | +3.9% |
| Fenerbahçe +1 | 70% | @ 1.48 | +3.4% |
| Fenerbahçe +1.75 | 84% | @ 1.23 | +3.3% |
| Fenerbahçe +2 | 87% | 1.13 | -1.7% |
| Lyon +0.75 | 72% | 1.18 | -15.2% |
| Lyon +0.5 | 67% | 1.26 | -15.5% |
| Lyon +0.25 | 60% | 1.33 | -19.6% |
| Lyon -1 | 30% | 2.69 | -19.7% |
| Lyon -0.25 | 47% | 1.67 | -21.2% |
| Lyon -0.5 | 41% | 1.90 | -22.7% |
| Lyon -0.75 | 35% | 2.19 | -22.8% |
| Lyon -2 | 13% | 5.90 | -23.2% |
| Lyon 0 | 54% | 1.42 | -23.5% |
| Lyon -1.25 | 24% | 3.08 | -24.8% |
| Lyon -1.75 | 16% | 4.10 | -34.3% |
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Lyon vs Fenerbahçe?
Our main pick is Fenerbahçe Asian Handicap with a +1.5 start at odds 1.31, with 81% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Fenerbahçe with a +0.25 start at 2.21 (+16.7% value).
Who is the favourite for Lyon vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model makes a Lyon win the most likely result at 39%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.4 scoreline for Lyon vs Fenerbahçe.
What is the predicted score for Lyon vs Fenerbahçe?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.63 for Lyon and 1.36 for Fenerbahçe. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Lyon and Fenerbahçe play?
Kick-off is Wednesday 26 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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