⚽ Premier League
Manchester City vs Bournemouth Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Manchester City vs Bournemouth in the Premier League. Kick-off Sunday 23 August 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Result: Manchester City 2-1 Bournemouth
Manchester City vs Bournemouth finished 2-1. Manchester City won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Manchester City face Bournemouth in the upcoming Premier League tips, kicking off Sunday 23 August 2026, 13:00 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Manchester City won 3, Bournemouth won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Manchester City win the most likely result at 56%, projecting a 2.2-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Manchester City vs Bournemouth with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 7.7% | 8.7% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 8.6% | 9.7% | 5.6% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 6.4% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 3.5% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Manchester City vs Bournemouth comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Bournemouth with a +2 start at odds 1.35, with a 75% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Manchester City win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 56%. Goals lean over 2.5 (65%), both teams to score points yes (61%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Manchester City and Bournemouth. Wins shown from Manchester City’s perspective: Manchester City 3 · 1 drawn · Bournemouth 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Manchester City | 2 – 1 | Bournemouth | W |
| 2026-05-19 | Bournemouth | 1 – 1 | Manchester City | D |
| 2025-11-02 | Manchester City | 3 – 1 | Bournemouth | W |
| 2025-05-20 | Manchester City | 3 – 1 | Bournemouth | W |
| 2024-11-02 | Bournemouth | 2 – 1 | Manchester City | L |
📈 Recent form
Manchester City come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 14 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at home to Norwich. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WManchester City 5-3 SunderlandPremier League
- WManchester City 5-0 NorwichLeague Cup
- WManchester United 0-1 Manchester CityPremier League
- WFC Porto 0-2 Manchester CityUEFA Champions League
- WManchester City 1-0 CoventryPremier League
Bournemouth come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Lincoln. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at home to Liverpool.
- LBournemouth 0-1 LiverpoolPremier League
- WReal Sociedad 1-2 BournemouthUEFA Europa League
- DBournemouth 2-2 BrentfordPremier League
- WBournemouth 4-0 LincolnLeague Cup
- DNewcastle 2-2 BournemouthPremier League
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- J. DokuCalf Injury
- SavinhoTransfer negotiations
- A. AdliInjury
- J. AraujoThigh Injury
- R. ChristieSuspended (red card)
- E. J. KroupiFoot Injury
- V. MilosavljevicInjury
- J. SolerLacking Match Fitness
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Manchester City at 56% to win and Bournemouth at 16%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Manchester City win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City Win | 56% | 66% | @ 1.44 |
| Draw | 28% | 19% | @ 5.00 |
| Bournemouth Win | 16% | 15% | @ 6.40 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Manchester City or Draw at 1.11 (81% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City or Draw | 81% | 85% | @ 1.11 |
| Bournemouth or Draw | 42% | 34% | @ 2.75 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.2-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 65% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 84% | @ 1.12 |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 66% | @ 1.42 |
| Under 3.5 | 56% | 55% | @ 1.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 45% | @ 2.10 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 34% | @ 2.80 |
| Under 1.5 | 15% | 16% | @ 6.10 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 61%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 61% | 59% | @ 1.57 |
| BTTS No | 39% | 41% | @ 2.28 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Manchester City or Bournemouth is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City +0.5 | 81% | – | 1.11 |
| Manchester City +0.25 | 76% | 83% | 1.15 |
| Bournemouth +2 | 75% | 71% | @ 1.35 |
| Bournemouth +1.75 | 71% | 63% | @ 1.50 |
| Manchester City 0 | 70% | 80% | 1.18 |
| Bournemouth +1.5 | 66% | 57% | @ 1.66 |
| Manchester City -0.25 | 64% | 71% | 1.34 |
| Bournemouth +1.25 | 60% | 52% | @ 1.85 |
| Manchester City -0.5 | 58% | 65% | 1.46 |
| Bournemouth +1 | 54% | 46% | @ 2.09 |
| Manchester City -0.75 | 52% | 60% | 1.60 |
| Bournemouth +0.75 | 48% | 40% | @ 2.38 |
| Manchester City -1 | 46% | 54% | 1.76 |
| Bournemouth +0.5 | 42% | 35% | @ 2.68 |
| Manchester City -1.25 | 40% | 48% | 2.04 |
| Bournemouth +0.25 | 36% | 29% | @ 3.31 |
| Manchester City -1.5 | 34% | 43% | 2.20 |
| Bournemouth 0 | 30% | 20% | @ 4.65 |
| Manchester City -1.75 | 29% | 37% | 2.60 |
| Manchester City -2 | 25% | 29% | 3.25 |
| Bournemouth -0.25 | 24% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Manchester City vs Bournemouth?
Our model's main pick is Bournemouth with a +2 start at odds 1.35, with a 75% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 71%.
Who is the favourite for Manchester City vs Bournemouth?
Our model makes a Manchester City win the most likely result at 56%. It projects an expected 2.2-1.1 scoreline for Manchester City vs Bournemouth.
What is the predicted score for Manchester City vs Bournemouth?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.23 for Manchester City and 1.14 for Bournemouth. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Manchester City and Bournemouth play?
Kick-off is Sunday 23 August 2026, 13:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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