⚽ Premier League

Manchester City vs Bournemouth Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Manchester City vs Bournemouth in the Premier League. Kick-off Sunday 23 August 2026, 13:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Manchester City face Bournemouth in the Premier League, kicking off Sunday 23 August 2026, 13:00 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Manchester City won 3, Bournemouth won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Manchester City win the most likely result at 56%, projecting a 2.2-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Manchester City vs Bournemouth with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 2.5 @ 1.40

66%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.24 – 1.14 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.4%	3.9%	2.2%	0.8%	0.2%
1	7.6%	8.7%	5.0%	1.9%	0.5%
2	8.5%	9.7%	5.6%	2.1%	0.6%
3	6.4%	7.3%	4.1%	1.6%	0.4%
4	3.6%	4.1%	2.3%	0.9%	0.3%

Projected score: 2-1

Manchester City winDrawBournemouth win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Manchester City vs Bournemouth is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.40, the selection our model is most confident in at 66%. On the match result, the model rates a Manchester City win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 56%. Goals lean over 2.5 (66%), both teams to score points yes (61%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.80 (+1.3% model value).

Best value

Under 3.5 at odds 1.80, 56% model probability, +1.3% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Manchester City 56%Draw 28%Bournemouth 16%

56%28%16%

56%

Manchester City Win

66%

Over 2.5 goals

61%

BTTS yes

+1.3%

Best value: Under 3.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Manchester City and Bournemouth. Wins shown from Manchester City’s perspective: Manchester City 3 · 1 drawn · Bournemouth 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-05-19	Bournemouth	1 – 1	Manchester City	D
2025-11-02	Manchester City	3 – 1	Bournemouth	W
2025-05-20	Manchester City	3 – 1	Bournemouth	W
2024-11-02	Bournemouth	2 – 1	Manchester City	L
2024-02-24	Bournemouth	0 – 1	Manchester City	W

📈 Recent form

Manchester City

Manchester City come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Atletico Madrid. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at Arsenal.

LArsenal 3-0 Manchester CityCommunity Shield
WManchester City 3-1 Atletico MadridFriendlies Clubs
WK-League Stars 1-3 Manchester CityFriendlies Clubs
LManchester City 1-2 Aston VillaPremier League
DBournemouth 1-1 Manchester CityPremier League

Bournemouth

Bournemouth come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 22 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 10-1 at home to Genoa. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at FSV Mainz 05.

LFSV Mainz 05 2-1 BournemouthFriendlies Clubs
DReal Betis 2-2 BournemouthFriendlies Clubs
WBournemouth 10-1 GenoaFriendlies Clubs
WFC Augsburg 2-5 BournemouthFriendlies Clubs
WBournemouth 4-1 FC St. PauliFriendlies Clubs

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 11 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Manchester City

J. DokuCalf Injury
R. McAidooInjury
SavinhoIllness
M. NunesInjury

Bournemouth

A. AdliInjury
J. AraujoThigh Injury
R. ChristieSuspended (red card)
E. J. KroupiFoot Injury
V. MilosavljevicInjury
T. AdamsInjury
D. BrooksInjury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Manchester City at 56% to win and Bournemouth at 16%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Manchester City win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	28%	@ 4.70	+31.7%
Bournemouth Win	16%	@ 6.50	+4.7%
Manchester City Win	56%	@ 1.43	-20.1%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Bournemouth or Draw at 2.75 (42% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Bournemouth or Draw	42%	@ 2.75	+14.3%
Manchester City or Draw	81%	@ 1.11	-9.9%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.2-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 66% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 3.5	56%	@ 1.80	+1.3%
Under 2.5	34%	@ 2.88	-1.0%
Over 1.5	85%	@ 1.12	-4.7%
Over 2.5	66%	@ 1.40	-8.1%
Over 3.5	44%	@ 2.00	-12.6%
Under 1.5	15%	@ 5.75	-14.2%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 61%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	61%	@ 1.53	-6.5%
BTTS No	39%	@ 2.40	-6.7%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	65%
Dixon-Coles	Home	58%
GradientBoosting	Home	52%

All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.

Expected goals: 1.82 for the home side, 0.92 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Manchester City vs Bournemouth?

Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.40, with 66% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is under 3.5 goals at 1.80 (+1.3% value).

Who is the favourite for Manchester City vs Bournemouth?

Our model makes a Manchester City win the most likely result at 56%. It projects an expected 2.2-1.1 scoreline for Manchester City vs Bournemouth.

What is the predicted score for Manchester City vs Bournemouth?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.24 for Manchester City and 1.14 for Bournemouth. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Manchester City and Bournemouth play?

Kick-off is Sunday 23 August 2026, 13:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.