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⚽ Primeira Liga

Moreirense vs Gil Vicente Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Moreirense vs Gil Vicente in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Friday 09 October 2026, 17:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Moreirense face Gil Vicente in the Primeira Liga, kicking off Friday 09 October 2026, 17:45 UTC. Recent form: Moreirense have 2 wins from their last 5, while Gil Vicente have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Moreirense won 2, Gil Vicente won 2, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Moreirense win the most likely result at 40%, projecting a 1.2-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Moreirense vs Gil Vicente with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.40

69%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.23 – 1.18 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.0%	10.6%	6.3%	2.5%	0.7%
1	11.0%	13.0%	7.7%	3.0%	0.9%
2	6.8%	8.0%	4.7%	1.9%	0.5%
3	2.8%	3.3%	1.9%	0.8%	0.2%
4	0.9%	1.0%	0.6%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Moreirense winDrawGil Vicente win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Moreirense vs Gil Vicente comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.40, with a 69% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Moreirense win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 40%. Goals lean under 2.5 (57%), both teams to score points no (52%).

📊 Key numbers

Moreirense 40%Draw 29%Gil Vicente 32%

40%29%32%

40%

Moreirense Win

57%

Under 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Moreirense and Gil Vicente. Wins shown from Moreirense’s perspective: Moreirense 2 · 1 drawn · Gil Vicente 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-07-25	Gil Vicente	2 – 2	Moreirense	D
2026-02-07	Moreirense	1 – 2	Gil Vicente	L
2025-08-29	Gil Vicente	2 – 0	Moreirense	L
2025-04-06	Gil Vicente	0 – 1	Moreirense	W
2024-11-08	Moreirense	3 – 2	Gil Vicente	W

📈 Recent form

Moreirense

Moreirense come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Marítimo. Their most recent defeat was 0-4 at home to Benfica.

DVitória SC 1-1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
WMoreirense 3-1 MarítimoPrimeira Liga
LMoreirense 0-4 BenficaPrimeira Liga
LFC Porto 2-1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
WCasa Pia 0-1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga

Gil Vicente

Gil Vicente come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Casa Pia. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Benfica.

DGil Vicente 1-1 MarítimoPrimeira Liga
LBenfica 3-1 Gil VicentePrimeira Liga
LGil Vicente 0-1 Académico de ViseuPrimeira Liga
DFamalicão 0-0 Gil VicentePrimeira Liga
WGil Vicente 2-0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Moreirense at 40% to win and Gil Vicente at 32%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes a Moreirense win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Moreirense Win	40%	29%	@ 3.30
Gil Vicente Win	32%	42%	@ 2.25
Draw	29%	29%	@ 3.20

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Moreirense or Draw at 1.62 (67% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Moreirense or Draw	67%	58%	@ 1.62
Gil Vicente or Draw	59%	71%	@ 1.33

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.2-1.2 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 57% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	78%	77%	@ 1.22
Over 1.5	69%	66%	@ 1.40
Under 2.5	57%	58%	@ 1.62
Over 2.5	43%	42%	@ 2.25
Under 1.5	31%	34%	@ 2.75
Over 3.5	22%	23%	@ 4.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 52%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	52%	52%	@ 1.80
BTTS Yes	48%	48%	@ 1.95

📈 How the market moved

Moreirense 28%Draw 30%Gil Vicente 42%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Moreirense vs Gil Vicente?

Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.40, with a 69% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 66%.

Who is the favourite for Moreirense vs Gil Vicente?

Our model makes a Moreirense win the most likely result at 40%. It projects an expected 1.2-1.2 scoreline for Moreirense vs Gil Vicente.

What is the predicted score for Moreirense vs Gil Vicente?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.23 for Moreirense and 1.18 for Gil Vicente. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Moreirense and Gil Vicente play?

Kick-off is Friday 09 October 2026, 17:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.