⚽ Primeira Liga
Nacional vs Estrela da Amadora Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Nacional vs Estrela da Amadora in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Sunday 30 August 2026, 14:30 UTC.
Result: Nacional 2-3 Estrela da Amadora
Nacional vs Estrela da Amadora finished 2-3. Estrela da Amadora won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Nacional face Estrela da Amadora in the upcoming Primeira Liga tips, kicking off Sunday 30 August 2026, 14:30 UTC. Recent form: Nacional have 2 wins from their last 5, while Estrela da Amadora have no wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Nacional won 1, Estrela da Amadora won 3, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Nacional win the most likely result at 43%, projecting a 1.5-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Nacional vs Estrela da Amadora with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7% | 8.0% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 11.6% | 12.2% | 6.4% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 8.8% | 9.3% | 4.9% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 4.5% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.7% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Nacional vs Estrela da Amadora comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Nacional with a +0.75 start at odds 1.26, with a 74% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Nacional win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 43%. Goals lean under 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (51%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Nacional and Estrela da Amadora. Wins shown from Nacional’s perspective: Nacional 1 · 1 drawn · Estrela da Amadora 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Nacional | 2 – 3 | Estrela da Amadora | L |
| 2026-07-23 | Estrela da Amadora | 2 – 0 | Nacional | L |
| 2026-04-04 | Nacional | 2 – 0 | Estrela da Amadora | W |
| 2025-11-09 | Estrela da Amadora | 1 – 1 | Nacional | D |
| 2025-04-06 | Nacional | 0 – 1 | Estrela da Amadora | L |
📈 Recent form
Nacional come into this game with 5 defeats from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 13. Their most recent defeat was 0-4 at home to Famalicão.
- LNacional 0-4 FamalicãoPrimeira Liga
- LNacional 1-3 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
- LSporting CP 2-0 NacionalPrimeira Liga
- LNacional 2-3 Estrela da AmadoraPrimeira Liga
- LVitória SC 1-0 NacionalPrimeira Liga
Estrela da Amadora come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to SC Braga. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at home to Académico de Viseu.
- LEstrela da Amadora 0-2 Académico de ViseuPrimeira Liga
- DRio Ave 3-3 Estrela da AmadoraPrimeira Liga
- WEstrela da Amadora 2-1 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
- DEstrela da Amadora 2-2 FamalicãoPrimeira Liga
- WNacional 2-3 Estrela da AmadoraPrimeira Liga
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Nacional at 43% to win and Estrela da Amadora at 29%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes a Nacional win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional Win | 43% | 41% | @ 2.30 |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | @ 3.30 |
| Estrela da Amadora Win | 29% | 31% | @ 3.05 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Nacional or Draw at 1.32 (70% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional or Draw | 70% | 69% | @ 1.32 |
| Estrela da Amadora or Draw | 56% | 59% | @ 1.54 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 53% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 74% | 71% | @ 1.29 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 72% | @ 1.28 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 52% | @ 1.78 |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 48% | @ 1.90 |
| Under 1.5 | 27% | 28% | @ 3.25 |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 29% | @ 3.20 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 51%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 54% | @ 1.70 |
| BTTS No | 49% | 46% | @ 1.98 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Nacional or Estrela da Amadora is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional +1.5 | 88% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Nacional +1.25 | 84% | 84% | 1.12 |
| Estrela da Amadora +1.75 | 82% | 84% | 1.12 |
| Nacional +1 | 79% | 83% | 1.15 |
| Estrela da Amadora +1.5 | 79% | 79% | 1.19 |
| Nacional +0.75 | 74% | 75% | 1.26 |
| Estrela da Amadora +1.25 | 73% | 78% | 1.23 |
| Nacional +0.5 | 70% | 68% | 1.38 |
| Estrela da Amadora +1 | 67% | – | 1.27 |
| Nacional +0.25 | 64% | 64% | 1.50 |
| Estrela da Amadora +0.75 | 62% | 66% | 1.43 |
| Nacional 0 | 57% | 57% | 1.67 |
| Estrela da Amadora +0.5 | 56% | 59% | 1.60 |
| Nacional -0.25 | 50% | 47% | @ 2.04 |
| Estrela da Amadora +0.25 | 50% | 53% | 1.82 |
| Nacional -0.5 | 44% | 41% | @ 2.29 |
| Estrela da Amadora 0 | 43% | 43% | 2.19 |
| Nacional -0.75 | 38% | 34% | @ 2.83 |
| Estrela da Amadora -0.25 | 36% | 36% | 2.63 |
| Estrela da Amadora -0.5 | 30% | 32% | 2.98 |
| Nacional -1.25 | 27% | 22% | @ 4.29 |
| Estrela da Amadora -0.75 | 26% | 25% | 3.83 |
| Nacional -1.5 | 21% | 21% | 4.50 |
| Estrela da Amadora -1 | 21% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
| Nacional -1.75 | 18% | 16% | @ 6.00 |
| Estrela da Amadora -1.25 | 16% | 16% | 6.00 |
| Estrela da Amadora -1.5 | 12% | 15% | 6.40 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Nacional vs Estrela da Amadora?
Our model's main pick is Nacional with a +0.75 start at odds 1.26, with a 74% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.
Who is the favourite for Nacional vs Estrela da Amadora?
Our model makes a Nacional win the most likely result at 43%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.1 scoreline for Nacional vs Estrela da Amadora.
What is the predicted score for Nacional vs Estrela da Amadora?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.52 for Nacional and 1.05 for Estrela da Amadora. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Nacional and Estrela da Amadora play?
Kick-off is Sunday 30 August 2026, 14:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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