Sat 17 Oct16:30Upcoming

⚽ Premier League

Newcastle vs Aston Villa Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Newcastle vs Aston Villa in the Premier League. Kick-off Saturday 17 October 2026, 16:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Newcastle face Aston Villa in the Premier League, kicking off Saturday 17 October 2026, 16:30 UTC. Recent form: Newcastle have 2 wins from their last 5, while Aston Villa have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Newcastle won 2, Aston Villa won 2, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Newcastle win the most likely result at 40%, projecting a 1.9-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Newcastle vs Aston Villa with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

BTTS Yes @ 1.53

66%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.92 – 1.46 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.4%	5.0%	3.6%	1.8%	0.6%
1	6.5%	9.5%	7.0%	3.4%	1.2%
2	6.3%	9.2%	6.7%	3.3%	1.2%
3	4.0%	5.9%	4.3%	2.1%	0.8%
4	1.9%	2.8%	2.1%	1.0%	0.4%

Projected score: 1-1

Newcastle winDrawAston Villa win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Newcastle vs Aston Villa comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is both teams to score at odds 1.53, with a 66% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Newcastle win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 40%. Goals lean over 2.5 (66%), both teams to score points yes (66%).

📊 Key numbers

Newcastle 40%Draw 24%Aston Villa 37%

40%24%37%

40%

Newcastle Win

66%

Over 2.5 goals

66%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Newcastle and Aston Villa. Wins shown from Newcastle’s perspective: Newcastle 2 · 1 drawn · Aston Villa 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-01-25	Newcastle	0 – 2	Aston Villa	L
2025-08-16	Aston Villa	0 – 0	Newcastle	D
2025-04-19	Aston Villa	4 – 1	Newcastle	L
2024-12-26	Newcastle	3 – 0	Aston Villa	W
2024-01-30	Aston Villa	1 – 3	Newcastle	W

📈 Recent form

Newcastle

Newcastle come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Tottenham. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-4 at Leeds.

WNewcastle 2-1 Hull CityPremier League
LLeeds 4-1 NewcastlePremier League
WMillwall 0-1 NewcastleLeague Cup
DNewcastle 2-2 BournemouthPremier League
WTottenham 0-2 NewcastlePremier League

Aston Villa

Aston Villa come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 8. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Sevilla. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to Nottingham Forest.

DAston Villa 2-2 BrentfordPremier League
WSevilla 1-3 Aston VillaFriendlies Clubs
WTottenham 2-3 Aston VillaPremier League
WCoventry 1-3 Aston VillaLeague Cup
LAston Villa 1-2 Nottingham ForestPremier League

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Newcastle at 40% to win and Aston Villa at 37%, with the draw at 24%. Our model makes a Newcastle win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Newcastle Win	40%	45%	@ 2.05
Aston Villa Win	37%	29%	@ 3.25
Draw	24%	26%	@ 3.60

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Newcastle or Draw at 1.33 (65% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Newcastle or Draw	65%	71%	@ 1.33
Aston Villa or Draw	62%	55%	@ 1.73

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.9-1.5 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 66% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	85%	81%	@ 1.17
Over 2.5	66%	59%	@ 1.62
Under 3.5	56%	60%	@ 1.57
Over 3.5	44%	40%	@ 2.38
Under 2.5	34%	41%	@ 2.30
Under 1.5	15%	19%	@ 5.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 66%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	66%	61%	@ 1.53
BTTS No	34%	39%	@ 2.38

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Newcastle vs Aston Villa?

Our model's pick is both teams to score at odds 1.53, with a 66% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 61%.

Who is the favourite for Newcastle vs Aston Villa?

Our model makes a Newcastle win the most likely result at 40%. It projects an expected 1.9-1.5 scoreline for Newcastle vs Aston Villa.

What is the predicted score for Newcastle vs Aston Villa?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.92 for Newcastle and 1.46 for Aston Villa. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Newcastle and Aston Villa play?

Kick-off is Saturday 17 October 2026, 16:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.