Portugal

Sun 4 Oct2-1Finished

Norway

⚽ UEFA Nations League

Portugal vs Norway Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Portugal vs Norway in the UEFA Nations League. Kick-off Sunday 04 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Market view Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Portugal 2-1 Norway

Portugal vs Norway finished 2-1. Portugal won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Portugal face Norway in the UEFA Nations League, kicking off Sunday 04 October 2026, 18:45 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, Portugal won 2. The bookmaker market makes a Portugal win the most likely result at 58%, implying a 2.1-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the market view, a score probability heatmap and every betting market for Portugal vs Norway with probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

📈 Market view

We don’t publish a pick for this match. In our own testing, our model did not beat the bookmaker market in this competition, so this page shows the market’s view: probabilities implied by the odds, with the bookmaker margin removed. See today’s picks for the matches we do cover.

Outcome	Market %
Portugal win	58%
Draw	23%
Norway win	19%
Over 2.5 goals	64%
Both teams to score	62%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (market-implied, exp. 2.10 – 1.15 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.9%	4.5%	2.6%	1.0%	0.3%
1	8.1%	9.4%	5.4%	2.1%	0.6%
2	8.5%	9.8%	5.7%	2.2%	0.6%
3	6.0%	6.9%	4.0%	1.5%	0.4%
4	3.1%	3.6%	2.1%	0.8%	0.2%

Projected score: 2-1

Portugal winDrawNorway win

🧠 Market summary

This page shows the bookmaker market’s view of Portugal vs Norway. Based on the bookmaker odds, a Portugal win is the most likely result at 58%. Goals lean over 2.5 at 64%. Both teams to score: yes at 62%.

📊 Key numbers

Portugal 58%Draw 23%Norway 19%

58%23%19%

58%

Portugal Win

64%

Over 2.5 goals

62%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Portugal and Norway. Wins shown from Portugal’s perspective: Portugal 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-10-04	Portugal	2 – 1	Norway	W
2026-09-27	Norway	1 – 2	Portugal	W

📈 Recent form

Portugal

Portugal come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-2 at Denmark. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WPortugal 2-1 NorwayUEFA Nations League
WDenmark 2-4 PortugalUEFA Nations League
WNorway 1-2 PortugalUEFA Nations League
WPortugal 1-0 WalesUEFA Nations League
WPortugal 2-1 NigeriaFriendlies

Norway

Norway come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at home to Denmark. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Portugal.

LPortugal 2-1 NorwayUEFA Nations League
LWales 2-1 NorwayUEFA Nations League
LNorway 1-2 PortugalUEFA Nations League
WNorway 3-2 DenmarkUEFA Nations League
DMorocco 1-1 NorwayFriendlies

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Portugal at 58% to win and Norway at 19%, with the draw at 23%. The bookmaker market makes a Portugal win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Market %	Odds
Portugal Win	58%	@ 1.62
Draw	23%	@ 4.20
Norway Win	19%	@ 5.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Portugal or Draw at 1.17 (81% market).

Selection	Market %	Odds
Portugal or Draw	81%	@ 1.17
Norway or Draw	42%	@ 2.25

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals implied by the odds point to an expected 2.1-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 64% probability.

Selection	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	84%	@ 1.12
Over 2.5	64%	@ 1.48
Under 3.5	56%	@ 1.67
Over 3.5	44%	@ 2.10
Under 2.5	36%	@ 2.60
Under 1.5	16%	@ 6.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. The market leans towards both teams to score at 62%.

Selection	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	62%	@ 1.50
BTTS No	38%	@ 2.50

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Portugal vs Norway?

We don't publish a pick for this match. Based on the bookmaker odds, a Portugal win is the most likely result at 58%.

Who is the favourite for Portugal vs Norway?

Our model makes a Portugal win the most likely result at 58%. It projects an expected 2.1-1.1 scoreline for Portugal vs Norway.

What is the predicted score for Portugal vs Norway?

The most likely scoreline implied by the bookmaker odds is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.10 for Portugal and 1.15 for Norway. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Portugal and Norway play?

Kick-off is Sunday 04 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

For this competition we show probabilities implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed. In our own testing our model did not beat the market here, so we don't publish model picks for it. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.