Wed 14 Oct18:45Upcoming

⚽ Championship

QPR vs Derby Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for QPR vs Derby in the Championship. Kick-off Wednesday 14 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

QPR face Derby in the Championship, kicking off Wednesday 14 October 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: QPR have 1 win from their last 5, while Derby have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 3 meetings, QPR won 1, Derby won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a QPR win the most likely result at 39%, projecting a 1.4-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for QPR vs Derby with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.40

76%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.36 – 1.14 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.2%	9.4%	5.3%	2.0%	0.6%
1	11.2%	12.7%	7.3%	2.8%	0.8%
2	7.6%	8.7%	4.9%	1.9%	0.5%
3	3.4%	3.9%	2.2%	0.8%	0.2%
4	1.2%	1.3%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

QPR winDrawDerby win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for QPR vs Derby comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.40, with a 76% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a QPR win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 39%. Goals lean under 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points yes (51%).

📊 Key numbers

QPR 39%Draw 32%Derby 29%

39%32%29%

39%

QPR Win

54%

Under 2.5 goals

51%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 3 meetings between QPR and Derby. Wins shown from QPR’s perspective: QPR 1 · Derby 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-04-25	QPR	2 – 3	Derby	L
2025-02-14	QPR	4 – 0	Derby	W
2024-10-05	Derby	2 – 0	QPR	L

📈 Recent form

QPR

QPR come into this game with no wins and 4 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 4. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at home to Middlesbrough.

DWest Ham 1-1 QPRChampionship
DQPR 2-2 PrestonChampionship
DWest Brom 1-1 QPRChampionship
DCharlton 0-0 QPRChampionship
LQPR 0-1 MiddlesbroughChampionship

Derby

Derby come into this game with no wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 8. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Birmingham.

DDerby 1-1 WrexhamChampionship
DBurnley 1-1 DerbyChampionship
LDerby 1-2 BirminghamChampionship
LDerby 0-1 West BromChampionship
LWest Ham 3-0 DerbyChampionship

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 9 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

QPR

I. ChairMuscle Injury
K. DembeleKnee Injury
R. BurrellNot in squad

Derby

P. AgyemangAchilles Tendon Injury
M. ClarkeCalf Injury
C. ForsythKnee Injury
D. MurkinHamstring Injury
C. TaylorInjury
J. Widell ZetterstromKnee Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices QPR at 39% to win and Derby at 29%, with the draw at 32%. Our model makes a QPR win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
QPR Win	39%	53%	@ 1.75
Draw	32%	25%	@ 3.75
Derby Win	29%	22%	@ 4.33

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is QPR or Draw at 1.20 (68% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
QPR or Draw	68%	78%	@ 1.20
Derby or Draw	58%	47%	@ 2.00

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 54% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	76%	68%	@ 1.40
Over 1.5	71%	76%	@ 1.25
Under 2.5	54%	47%	@ 2.00
Over 2.5	46%	53%	@ 1.80
Under 1.5	29%	24%	@ 4.00
Over 3.5	24%	32%	@ 3.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 51%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	51%	54%	@ 1.73
BTTS No	49%	46%	@ 2.00

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for QPR vs Derby?

Our model's pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.40, with a 76% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 68%.

Who is the favourite for QPR vs Derby?

Our model makes a QPR win the most likely result at 39%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.1 scoreline for QPR vs Derby.

What is the predicted score for QPR vs Derby?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.36 for QPR and 1.14 for Derby. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do QPR and Derby play?

Kick-off is Wednesday 14 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.