⚽ Primeira Liga
Santa Clara vs Famalicão Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Santa Clara vs Famalicão in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Sunday 23 August 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Result: Santa Clara 1-0 Famalicão
Santa Clara vs Famalicão finished 1-0. Santa Clara won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Santa Clara face Famalicão in the upcoming Primeira Liga tips, kicking off Sunday 23 August 2026, 17:00 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Santa Clara won 3, Famalicão won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Famalicão win the most likely result at 38%, projecting a 1.0-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Santa Clara vs Famalicão with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5% | 13.9% | 7.2% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 13.1% | 13.5% | 7.0% | 2.4% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 6.4% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Santa Clara vs Famalicão comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Famalicão with a +0.75 start at odds 1.31, with a 72% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Famalicão win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 38%. Goals lean under 2.5 (68%), both teams to score points no (60%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Santa Clara and Famalicão. Wins shown from Santa Clara’s perspective: Santa Clara 3 · Famalicão 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Santa Clara | 1 – 0 | Famalicão | W |
| 2026-01-18 | Santa Clara | 0 – 1 | Famalicão | L |
| 2025-08-10 | Famalicão | 3 – 0 | Santa Clara | L |
| 2025-05-10 | Santa Clara | 2 – 1 | Famalicão | W |
| 2024-12-30 | Famalicão | 1 – 2 | Santa Clara | W |
📈 Recent form
Santa Clara come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 2. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Rio Ave.
- DSanta Clara 0-0 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
- WArouca 1-2 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
- WSanta Clara 4-0 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
- DAlverca 1-1 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
- WSanta Clara 1-0 FamalicãoPrimeira Liga
Famalicão come into this game with 1 win and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Nacional. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at Santa Clara.
- WNacional 0-4 FamalicãoPrimeira Liga
- DFamalicão 1-1 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
- DEstrela da Amadora 2-2 FamalicãoPrimeira Liga
- DFamalicão 0-0 Gil VicentePrimeira Liga
- LSanta Clara 1-0 FamalicãoPrimeira Liga
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Santa Clara at 30% to win and Famalicão at 38%, with the draw at 32%. Our model makes a Famalicão win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Famalicão Win | 38% | 32% | @ 2.95 |
| Draw | 32% | 31% | @ 3.05 |
| Santa Clara Win | 30% | 37% | @ 2.55 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Famalicão or Draw at 1.45 (67% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Famalicão or Draw | 67% | 63% | @ 1.45 |
| Santa Clara or Draw | 59% | 68% | @ 1.34 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.0-1.0 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 68% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 86% | 79% | @ 1.16 |
| Under 2.5 | 68% | 62% | @ 1.48 |
| Over 1.5 | 59% | 63% | @ 1.46 |
| Under 1.5 | 41% | 37% | @ 2.48 |
| Over 2.5 | 32% | 38% | @ 2.40 |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 21% | @ 4.40 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 60%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 60% | 54% | @ 1.68 |
| BTTS Yes | 40% | 46% | @ 2.00 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Santa Clara or Famalicão is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Famalicão +1.5 | 86% | 84% | 1.12 |
| Famalicão +1.25 | 82% | 83% | 1.14 |
| Santa Clara +1.5 | 81% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Famalicão +1 | 77% | 81% | 1.18 |
| Santa Clara +1.25 | 75% | 84% | 1.13 |
| Famalicão +0.75 | 72% | 72% | 1.31 |
| Santa Clara +1 | 70% | 83% | 1.16 |
| Famalicão +0.5 | 67% | 64% | 1.47 |
| Santa Clara +0.75 | 64% | 73% | 1.30 |
| Famalicão +0.25 | 61% | 59% | 1.62 |
| Santa Clara +0.5 | 59% | 66% | 1.42 |
| Famalicão 0 | 54% | 49% | @ 1.98 |
| Santa Clara +0.25 | 52% | 60% | 1.59 |
| Famalicão -0.25 | 48% | 40% | @ 2.39 |
| Santa Clara 0 | 46% | 51% | 1.90 |
| Famalicão -0.5 | 41% | 34% | @ 2.79 |
| Santa Clara -0.25 | 39% | 41% | 2.32 |
| Famalicão -0.75 | 36% | 27% | @ 3.54 |
| Santa Clara -0.5 | 33% | 36% | 2.61 |
| Famalicão -1 | 30% | 17% | @ 5.54 |
| Santa Clara -0.75 | 28% | 28% | 3.46 |
| Famalicão -1.25 | 25% | 16% | @ 5.90 |
| Santa Clara -1 | 23% | 19% | @ 5.12 |
| Famalicão -1.5 | 19% | 15% | @ 6.40 |
| Santa Clara -1.25 | 18% | 17% | @ 5.75 |
| Santa Clara -1.5 | 14% | 16% | 6.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Santa Clara vs Famalicão?
Our model's main pick is Famalicão with a +0.75 start at odds 1.31, with a 72% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 72%.
Who is the favourite for Santa Clara vs Famalicão?
Our model makes a Famalicão win the most likely result at 38%. It projects an expected 1.0-1.0 scoreline for Santa Clara vs Famalicão.
What is the predicted score for Santa Clara vs Famalicão?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-1, based on expected goals of 0.97 for Santa Clara and 1.03 for Famalicão. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Santa Clara and Famalicão play?
Kick-off is Sunday 23 August 2026, 17:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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