Mon 10 Aug2-2Finished

⚽ Primeira Liga

Santa Clara vs Nacional Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Santa Clara vs Nacional in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Monday 10 August 2026, 19:15 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Santa Clara 2-2 Nacional

Santa Clara vs Nacional finished 2-2. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Our pre-match best bet, Nacional Asian Handicap with a +1.25 start at 1.38, landed.

Santa Clara face Nacional in the upcoming Primeira Liga tips, kicking off Monday 10 August 2026, 19:15 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Santa Clara won 2, Nacional won 1, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Santa Clara win the most likely result at 44%, projecting a 1.1-0.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Santa Clara vs Nacional with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Nacional Asian Handicap +1.25 @ 1.38

71%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.13 – 0.82 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	14.2%	11.7%	4.8%	1.3%	0.3%
1	16.1%	13.2%	5.4%	1.5%	0.3%
2	9.1%	7.4%	3.1%	0.8%	0.2%
3	3.4%	2.8%	1.2%	0.3%	0.1%
4	1.0%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%

Projected score: 1-0

Santa Clara winDrawNacional win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Santa Clara vs Nacional comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Nacional Asian Handicap with a +1.25 start at odds 1.38, with a 71% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Santa Clara win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 44%. Goals lean under 2.5 (69%), both teams to score points no (62%).

📊 Key numbers

Santa Clara 44%Draw 32%Nacional 24%

44%32%24%

44%

Santa Clara Win

69%

Under 2.5 goals

62%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Santa Clara and Nacional. Wins shown from Santa Clara’s perspective: Santa Clara 2 · 2 drawn · Nacional 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-10	Santa Clara	2 – 2	Nacional	D
2026-05-11	Santa Clara	2 – 0	Nacional	W
2026-01-11	Nacional	3 – 3	Santa Clara	D
2025-03-30	Santa Clara	1 – 0	Nacional	W
2024-11-04	Nacional	2 – 0	Santa Clara	L

📈 Recent form

Santa Clara

Santa Clara come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 2. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Rio Ave.

DSanta Clara 0-0 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
WArouca 1-2 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
WSanta Clara 4-0 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
DAlverca 1-1 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
WSanta Clara 1-0 FamalicãoPrimeira Liga

Nacional

Nacional come into this game with 5 defeats from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 13. Their most recent defeat was 0-4 at home to Famalicão.

LNacional 0-4 FamalicãoPrimeira Liga
LNacional 1-3 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
LSporting CP 2-0 NacionalPrimeira Liga
LNacional 2-3 Estrela da AmadoraPrimeira Liga
LVitória SC 1-0 NacionalPrimeira Liga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Santa Clara at 44% to win and Nacional at 24%, with the draw at 32%. Our model makes a Santa Clara win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Santa Clara Win	44%	49%	@ 1.89
Draw	32%	28%	@ 3.30
Nacional Win	24%	22%	@ 4.20

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Santa Clara or Draw at 1.18 (72% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Santa Clara or Draw	72%	78%	@ 1.18
Nacional or Draw	54%	51%	@ 1.81

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.1-0.8 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 69% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	87%	75%	@ 1.23
Under 2.5	69%	56%	@ 1.65
Over 1.5	58%	69%	@ 1.34
Under 1.5	42%	31%	@ 2.95
Over 2.5	31%	44%	@ 2.06
Over 3.5	13%	25%	@ 3.65

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 62%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	62%	52%	@ 1.77
BTTS Yes	38%	48%	@ 1.90

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Santa Clara or Nacional is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Nacional +2	84%	86%	1.11
Santa Clara +1	81%	86%	1.10
Nacional +1.75	81%	79%	1.20
Nacional +1.5	77%	73%	1.29
Santa Clara +0.75	76%	84%	1.13
Santa Clara +0.5	72%	–	1.21
Nacional +1.25	71%	69%	1.38
Santa Clara +0.25	66%	75%	1.26
Nacional +1	66%	65%	1.47
Nacional +0.75	60%	55%	@ 1.72
Santa Clara 0	59%	71%	1.33
Nacional +0.5	54%	49%	@ 1.94
Santa Clara -0.25	53%	59%	1.60
Nacional +0.25	47%	41%	@ 2.35
Santa Clara -0.5	46%	51%	1.84
Nacional 0	41%	29%	@ 3.24
Santa Clara -0.75	40%	45%	2.13
Santa Clara -1	34%	35%	2.71
Nacional -0.25	34%	25%	@ 3.79
Santa Clara -1.25	29%	31%	3.08
Nacional -0.75	24%	16%	@ 5.90
Santa Clara -1.5	23%	27%	3.45
Santa Clara -1.75	19%	21%	4.40
Nacional -1	19%	14%	@ 7.00
Santa Clara -2	16%	14%	@ 6.60

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Santa Clara vs Nacional?

Our model's main pick is Nacional Asian Handicap with a +1.25 start at odds 1.38, with a 71% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 72%.

Who is the favourite for Santa Clara vs Nacional?

Our model makes a Santa Clara win the most likely result at 44%. It projects an expected 1.1-0.8 scoreline for Santa Clara vs Nacional.

What is the predicted score for Santa Clara vs Nacional?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.13 for Santa Clara and 0.82 for Nacional. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Santa Clara and Nacional play?

Kick-off is Monday 10 August 2026, 19:15 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.