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⚽ Championship

Southampton vs Portsmouth Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Southampton vs Portsmouth in the Championship. Kick-off Sunday 11 October 2026, 11:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Southampton face Portsmouth in the Championship, kicking off Sunday 11 October 2026, 11:00 UTC. Recent form: Southampton have 2 wins from their last 5, while Portsmouth have 1 win from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Southampton win the most likely result at 64%, projecting a 2.7-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Southampton vs Portsmouth with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 2.5 @ 1.67

75%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.68 – 1.25 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	2.0%	2.5%	1.5%	0.6%	0.2%
1	5.3%	6.6%	4.1%	1.7%	0.5%
2	7.1%	8.8%	5.5%	2.3%	0.7%
3	6.3%	7.9%	4.9%	2.1%	0.6%
4	4.2%	5.3%	3.3%	1.4%	0.4%

Projected score: 2-1

Southampton winDrawPortsmouth win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Southampton vs Portsmouth comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.67, with a 75% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Southampton win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 64%. Goals lean over 2.5 (75%), both teams to score points yes (67%).

📊 Key numbers

Southampton 64%Draw 20%Portsmouth 17%

64%20%17%

64%

Southampton Win

75%

Over 2.5 goals

67%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Southampton

Southampton come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at home to Bristol City. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Wrexham.

LWrexham 2-1 SouthamptonChampionship
WSouthampton 4-1 Bristol CityChampionship
WSouthampton 3-1 SwanseaChampionship
DLincoln 1-1 SouthamptonChampionship
DBirmingham 1-1 SouthamptonChampionship

Portsmouth

Portsmouth come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Cardiff. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at home to Derby.

DPortsmouth 2-2 BlackburnChampionship
DCharlton 0-0 PortsmouthChampionship
WPortsmouth 2-0 CardiffChampionship
LPortsmouth 0-2 DerbyChampionship
LBristol City 2-1 PortsmouthChampionship

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Southampton at 64% to win and Portsmouth at 17%, with the draw at 20%. Our model makes a Southampton win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Southampton Win	64%	60%	@ 1.57
Draw	20%	23%	@ 4.00
Portsmouth Win	17%	17%	@ 5.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Southampton or Draw at 1.14 (84% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Southampton or Draw	84%	83%	@ 1.14
Portsmouth or Draw	37%	40%	@ 2.30

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.7-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 75% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	90%	79%	@ 1.20
Over 2.5	75%	57%	@ 1.67
Over 3.5	55%	36%	@ 2.62
Under 3.5	45%	64%	@ 1.50
Under 2.5	25%	43%	@ 2.20
Under 1.5	10%	21%	@ 4.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 67%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	67%	54%	@ 1.73
BTTS No	33%	46%	@ 2.00

📈 How the market moved

Southampton 59%Draw 23%Portsmouth 18%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Southampton vs Portsmouth?

Our model's main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.67, with a 75% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 57%.

Who is the favourite for Southampton vs Portsmouth?

Our model makes a Southampton win the most likely result at 64%. It projects an expected 2.7-1.2 scoreline for Southampton vs Portsmouth.

What is the predicted score for Southampton vs Portsmouth?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.68 for Southampton and 1.25 for Portsmouth. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Southampton and Portsmouth play?

Kick-off is Sunday 11 October 2026, 11:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.