Spain

Tue 29 Sep18:45Upcoming

Croatia

⚽ UEFA Nations League

Spain vs Croatia Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Spain vs Croatia in the UEFA Nations League. Kick-off Tuesday 29 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Market view Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Spain face Croatia in the UEFA Nations League, kicking off Tuesday 29 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. The bookmaker market makes a Spain win the most likely result at 72%, implying a 2.2-0.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the market view, a score probability heatmap and every betting market for Spain vs Croatia with probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

📈 Market view

We don’t publish a pick for this match. In our own testing, our model did not beat the bookmaker market in this competition, so this page shows the market’s view: probabilities implied by the odds, with the bookmaker margin removed. See today’s picks for the matches we do cover.

Outcome	Market %
Spain win	72%
Draw	18%
Croatia win	10%
Over 2.5 goals	56%
Both teams to score	44%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (market-implied, exp. 2.25 – 0.70 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.2%	3.7%	1.3%	0.3%	0.1%
1	11.8%	8.2%	2.9%	0.7%	0.1%
2	13.2%	9.3%	3.2%	0.8%	0.1%
3	9.9%	7.0%	2.4%	0.6%	0.1%
4	5.6%	3.9%	1.4%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 2-0

Spain winDrawCroatia win

🧠 Market summary

This page shows the bookmaker market’s view of Spain vs Croatia. Based on the bookmaker odds, a Spain win is the most likely result at 72%. Goals lean over 2.5 at 56%. Both teams to score: no at 56%.

📊 Key numbers

Spain 72%Draw 18%Croatia 10%

72%18%10%

72%

Spain Win

56%

Over 2.5 goals

56%

BTTS no

📈 Recent form

Spain

Spain come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 4, scoring 7 and conceding 2. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Serbia.

WPeru 1-3 SpainFriendlies
DSpain 1-1 IraqFriendlies
DSpain 0-0 EgyptFriendlies
WSpain 3-0 SerbiaFriendlies

Croatia

Croatia come into this game with 2 wins from their last 4, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Slovenia. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at home to Belgium.

WCroatia 2-1 SloveniaFriendlies
LCroatia 0-2 BelgiumFriendlies
LBrazil 3-1 CroatiaFriendlies
WColombia 1-2 CroatiaFriendlies

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Spain at 72% to win and Croatia at 10%, with the draw at 18%. The bookmaker market makes a Spain win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Market %	Odds
Spain Win	72%	@ 1.27
Draw	17%	@ 5.25
Croatia Win	10%	@ 9.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Spain or Draw at 1.07 (90% market).

Selection	Market %	Odds
Spain or Draw	90%	@ 1.07
Croatia or Draw	28%	@ 3.75

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals implied by the odds point to an expected 2.2-0.7 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 56% probability.

Selection	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	78%	@ 1.20
Under 3.5	65%	@ 1.44
Over 2.5	56%	@ 1.67
Under 2.5	44%	@ 2.15
Over 3.5	35%	@ 2.62
Under 1.5	22%	@ 4.33

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. The market leans towards both teams not to score at 56%.

Selection	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	56%	@ 1.67
BTTS Yes	44%	@ 2.10

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Spain vs Croatia?

We don't publish a pick for this match. Based on the bookmaker odds, a Spain win is the most likely result at 72%.

Who is the favourite for Spain vs Croatia?

Our model makes a Spain win the most likely result at 72%. It projects an expected 2.2-0.7 scoreline for Spain vs Croatia.

What is the predicted score for Spain vs Croatia?

The most likely scoreline implied by the bookmaker odds is around 2-0, based on expected goals of 2.25 for Spain and 0.70 for Croatia. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Spain and Croatia play?

Kick-off is Tuesday 29 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

For this competition we show probabilities implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed. In our own testing our model did not beat the market here, so we don't publish model picks for it. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.