Sat 22 Aug3-1Finished

⚽ Primeira Liga

Sporting CP vs Alverca Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Sporting CP vs Alverca in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Saturday 22 August 2026, 19:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Sporting CP 3-1 Alverca

Sporting CP vs Alverca finished 3-1. Sporting CP won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Sporting CP face Alverca in the upcoming Primeira Liga tips, kicking off Saturday 22 August 2026, 19:30 UTC. In their last 3 meetings, Sporting CP won 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Sporting CP win the most likely result at 81%, projecting a 2.9-0.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Sporting CP vs Alverca with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Sporting CP -0.75 @ 1.25

74%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.91 – 0.76 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	2.5%	1.9%	0.7%	0.2%	0.0%
1	7.4%	5.6%	2.1%	0.5%	0.1%
2	10.8%	8.2%	3.1%	0.8%	0.1%
3	10.5%	8.0%	3.0%	0.8%	0.1%
4	7.6%	5.8%	2.2%	0.6%	0.1%

Projected score: 2-0

Sporting CP winDrawAlverca win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Sporting CP vs Alverca comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Sporting CP to win by 1+ goals at odds 1.25, with a 74% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Sporting CP win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 81%. Goals lean over 2.5 (71%), both teams to score points yes (50%).

📊 Key numbers

Sporting CP 81%Draw 12%Alverca 7%

81%12%

81%

Sporting CP Win

71%

Over 2.5 goals

50%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 3 meetings between Sporting CP and Alverca. Wins shown from Sporting CP’s perspective: Sporting CP 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-22	Sporting CP	3 – 1	Alverca	W
2026-03-22	Alverca	1 – 4	Sporting CP	W
2025-10-31	Sporting CP	2 – 0	Alverca	W

📈 Recent form

Sporting CP

Sporting CP come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Rio Ave. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

DSporting CP 2-2 AroucaPrimeira Liga
DFamalicão 1-1 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
WSporting CP 3-1 GalatasarayUEFA Champions League
WSporting CP 2-0 NacionalPrimeira Liga
WRio Ave 0-4 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga

Alverca

Alverca come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Nacional. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to SC Braga.

WAlverca 1-0 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
WNacional 1-3 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
LAlverca 1-2 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
DAlverca 1-1 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
LSporting CP 3-1 AlvercaPrimeira Liga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Sporting CP at 81% to win and Alverca at 7%, with the draw at 12%. Our model makes a Sporting CP win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Sporting CP Win	81%	79%	@ 1.17
Draw	12%	13%	@ 7.00
Alverca Win	7%	8%	@ 12.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Sporting CP or Draw at 1.03 (93% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Sporting CP or Draw	93%	92%	@ 1.03
Alverca or Draw	20%	21%	@ 4.20

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.9-0.8 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 71% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	88%	81%	@ 1.13
Over 2.5	71%	63%	@ 1.46
Under 3.5	50%	58%	@ 1.58
Over 3.5	50%	42%	@ 2.17
Under 2.5	29%	37%	@ 2.48
Under 1.5	12%	19%	@ 4.90

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 50%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	50%	44%	@ 2.10
BTTS No	50%	56%	@ 1.62

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Sporting CP or Alverca is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Sporting CP -0.25	83%	83%	1.14
Sporting CP -0.5	80%	77%	1.22
Sporting CP -0.75	74%	–	1.25
Sporting CP -1	69%	73%	1.29
Sporting CP -1.25	64%	65%	1.48
Sporting CP -1.5	59%	58%	1.62
Sporting CP -1.75	53%	53%	1.82
Alverca +2	52%	54%	1.75
Sporting CP -2	48%	46%	2.07
Alverca +1.75	47%	47%	2.03
Alverca +1.5	41%	42%	2.24
Alverca +1.25	36%	35%	2.68
Alverca +1	31%	27%	@ 3.58
Alverca +0.5	20%	23%	4.15
Alverca +0.25	17%	17%	5.75

📈 How the market moved

Sporting CP 78%Draw 14%Alverca 8%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Sporting CP vs Alverca?

Our model's main pick is Sporting CP to win by 1+ goals at odds 1.25, with a 74% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 80%.

Who is the favourite for Sporting CP vs Alverca?

Our model makes a Sporting CP win the most likely result at 81%. It projects an expected 2.9-0.8 scoreline for Sporting CP vs Alverca.

What is the predicted score for Sporting CP vs Alverca?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-0, based on expected goals of 2.91 for Sporting CP and 0.76 for Alverca. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Sporting CP and Alverca play?

Kick-off is Saturday 22 August 2026, 19:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.