Sat 10 Oct14:00Upcoming

⚽ Premier League

Sunderland vs Brighton Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Sunderland vs Brighton in the Premier League. Kick-off Saturday 10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Sunderland face Brighton in the Premier League, kicking off Saturday 10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC. Recent form: Sunderland have 1 win from their last 5, while Brighton have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 2 meetings, Brighton won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Brighton win the most likely result at 43%, projecting a 1.3-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Sunderland vs Brighton with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.25

78%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.30 – 1.57 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.7%	8.9%	7.0%	3.7%	1.4%
1	7.4%	11.6%	9.1%	4.8%	1.9%
2	4.8%	7.5%	5.9%	3.1%	1.2%
3	2.1%	3.3%	2.6%	1.3%	0.5%
4	0.7%	1.1%	0.8%	0.4%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Sunderland winDrawBrighton win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Sunderland vs Brighton comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 78% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Brighton win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 43%. Goals lean over 2.5 (55%), both teams to score points yes (57%).

📊 Key numbers

Sunderland 34%Draw 23%Brighton 43%

34%23%43%

43%

Brighton Win

55%

Over 2.5 goals

57%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Sunderland and Brighton. Wins shown from Sunderland’s perspective: 1 drawn · Brighton 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-03-14	Sunderland	0 – 1	Brighton	L
2025-12-20	Brighton	0 – 0	Sunderland	D

📈 Recent form

Sunderland

Sunderland come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to AZ Alkmaar. Their most recent defeat was 3-5 at Manchester City.

LManchester City 5-3 SunderlandPremier League
WSunderland 1-0 AZ AlkmaarUEFA Europa League
LSunderland 0-2 ArsenalPremier League
WSunderland 1-0 Hull CityLeague Cup
DBrentford 1-1 SunderlandPremier League

Brighton

Brighton come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 15 and conceding 7. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at Coventry. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 3-4 at Chelsea.

WBrighton 3-0 ArsenalPremier League
WManchester United 2-3 BrightonLeague Cup
WCoventry 0-5 BrightonPremier League
DBrighton 1-1 LeedsPremier League
LChelsea 4-3 BrightonPremier League

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 14 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Sunderland

H. DiarraHamstring Injury
R. MundleKnee Injury
D. BallardMuscle Injury
B. BrobbeyMuscle Injury

Brighton

E. FergusonAnkle Injury
Y. MintehInjury
S. TzimasKnee Injury
F. AzeezAbdominal strain
L. DunkNeck Injury
J. HinshelwoodInjury
K. MitomaHamstring Injury
P. StruijkMuscle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Sunderland at 34% to win and Brighton at 43%, with the draw at 23%. Our model makes a Brighton win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Brighton Win	43%	40%	@ 2.35
Sunderland Win	34%	32%	@ 3.00
Draw	23%	28%	@ 3.40

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Brighton or Draw at 1.40 (68% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Brighton or Draw	68%	68%	@ 1.40
Sunderland or Draw	59%	60%	@ 1.57

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.6 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 55% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	78%	76%	@ 1.25
Under 3.5	68%	68%	@ 1.40
Over 2.5	55%	53%	@ 1.80
Under 2.5	45%	47%	@ 2.00
Over 3.5	32%	32%	@ 3.00
Under 1.5	22%	24%	@ 4.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 57%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	57%	58%	@ 1.62
BTTS No	43%	42%	@ 2.20

📈 How the market moved

Sunderland 32%Draw 28%Brighton 41%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Sunderland vs Brighton?

Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 78% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 76%.

Who is the favourite for Sunderland vs Brighton?

Our model makes a Brighton win the most likely result at 43%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.6 scoreline for Sunderland vs Brighton.

What is the predicted score for Sunderland vs Brighton?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.30 for Sunderland and 1.57 for Brighton. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Sunderland and Brighton play?

Kick-off is Saturday 10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.