⚽ Premier League

Tottenham vs Newcastle Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Tottenham vs Newcastle in the Premier League. Kick-off Saturday 29 August 2026, 16:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Tottenham face Newcastle in the Premier League, kicking off Saturday 29 August 2026, 16:30 UTC. Recent form: Tottenham have 2 wins from their last 5, while Newcastle have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Newcastle won 4, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Newcastle win the most likely result at 40%, projecting a 1.6-1.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Tottenham vs Newcastle with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 2.5 @ 1.69

63%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.58 – 1.69 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.8%	6.4%	5.4%	3.1%	1.3%
1	6.0%	10.1%	8.6%	4.8%	2.0%
2	4.7%	8.0%	6.8%	3.8%	1.6%
3	2.5%	4.2%	3.6%	2.0%	0.8%
4	1.0%	1.7%	1.4%	0.8%	0.3%

Projected score: 1-1

Tottenham winDrawNewcastle win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Tottenham vs Newcastle is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.69, the selection our model is most confident in at 63%. On the match result, the model rates a Newcastle win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 40%. Goals lean over 2.5 (63%).

Best value

Over 2.5 at odds 1.69, 63% model probability, +7.2% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Tottenham 31%Draw 29%Newcastle 40%

31%29%40%

40%

Newcastle Win

63%

Over 2.5 goals

+7.2%

Best value: Over 2.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Tottenham and Newcastle. Wins shown from Tottenham’s perspective: 1 drawn · Newcastle 4.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-02-10	Tottenham	1 – 2	Newcastle	L
2025-12-02	Newcastle	2 – 2	Tottenham	D
2025-01-04	Tottenham	1 – 2	Newcastle	L
2024-09-01	Newcastle	2 – 1	Tottenham	L
2024-04-13	Newcastle	4 – 0	Tottenham	L

📈 Recent form

Tottenham

Tottenham come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 5-1 at home to Charlton. Their only defeat in that run was 0-3 at Brentford.

WTottenham 5-1 CharltonLeague Cup
LBrentford 3-0 TottenhamPremier League
DTottenham 1-1 GetafeFriendlies Clubs
WChelsea 1-2 TottenhamFriendlies Clubs
DTottenham 1-1 SydneyFriendlies Clubs

Newcastle

Newcastle come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 10. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at home to West Brom. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Bayer Leverkusen.

WNewcastle 3-2 West BromLeague Cup
DNewcastle 2-2 LiverpoolPremier League
DNewcastle 1-1 StrasbourgFriendlies Clubs
LNewcastle 1-2 Bayer LeverkusenFriendlies Clubs
LNewcastle 1-3 EvertonFriendlies Clubs

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 10 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Tottenham

D. KulusevskiKnee Injury
J. MaddisonKnock
W. OdobertKnee Injury
X. SimonsKnee Injury
M. KudusMuscle Injury
P. M. SarrInjury

Newcastle

D. BurnAnkle Injury
JoelintonInjury
V. LivramentoHamstring Injury
W. OsulaInjury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Tottenham at 31% to win and Newcastle at 40%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes a Newcastle win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Newcastle Win	40%	@ 3.20	+27.7%
Draw	29%	@ 3.76	+10.4%
Tottenham Win	31%	@ 2.20	-32.4%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.7 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 63% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	41%	@ 2.70	+11.5%
Over 2.5	63%	@ 1.69	+7.2%
Under 3.5	59%	@ 1.49	-12.5%
Under 2.5	37%	@ 2.26	-17.4%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	40%
Dixon-Coles	Away	43%
GradientBoosting	Away	40%

Two of our three models agree; the third sees it differently. A reasonable but not maximal signal.

Expected goals: 1.20 for the home side, 1.40 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Tottenham vs Newcastle?

Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.69, with 63% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Tottenham vs Newcastle?

Our model makes a Newcastle win the most likely result at 40%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.7 scoreline for Tottenham vs Newcastle.

What is the predicted score for Tottenham vs Newcastle?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.58 for Tottenham and 1.69 for Newcastle. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Tottenham and Newcastle play?

Kick-off is Saturday 29 August 2026, 16:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.