Sat 10 Oct11:30Upcoming

⚽ Championship

West Brom vs Birmingham Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for West Brom vs Birmingham in the Championship. Kick-off Saturday 10 October 2026, 11:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

West Brom face Birmingham in the Championship, kicking off Saturday 10 October 2026, 11:30 UTC. Recent form: West Brom have 2 wins from their last 5, while Birmingham have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 2 meetings, West Brom won 1, Birmingham won 1. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a West Brom win the most likely result at 42%, projecting a 1.3-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for West Brom vs Birmingham with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.40

82%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.33 – 0.88 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	11.0%	9.7%	4.2%	1.2%	0.3%
1	14.6%	12.8%	5.6%	1.7%	0.4%
2	9.7%	8.5%	3.8%	1.1%	0.2%
3	4.3%	3.8%	1.7%	0.5%	0.1%
4	1.4%	1.3%	0.6%	0.2%	0.0%

Projected score: 1-0

West Brom winDrawBirmingham win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for West Brom vs Birmingham comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.40, with a 82% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a West Brom win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 42%. Goals lean under 2.5 (62%), both teams to score points no (57%).

📊 Key numbers

West Brom 42%Draw 32%Birmingham 26%

42%32%26%

42%

West Brom Win

62%

Under 2.5 goals

57%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between West Brom and Birmingham. Wins shown from West Brom’s perspective: West Brom 1 · Birmingham 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2024-02-03	West Brom	1 – 0	Birmingham	W
2023-10-06	Birmingham	3 – 1	West Brom	L

📈 Recent form

West Brom

West Brom come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 3. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Derby. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at Wolves.

LWolves 1-0 West BromChampionship
DWest Brom 1-1 QPRChampionship
WDerby 0-1 West BromChampionship
WWest Brom 1-0 WatfordChampionship
DWest Brom 1-1 CharltonChampionship

Birmingham

Birmingham come into this game with 1 win and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Derby. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Norwich.

DBirmingham 2-2 MiddlesbroughChampionship
WDerby 1-2 BirminghamChampionship
LNorwich 2-1 BirminghamChampionship
DBirmingham 2-2 WolvesChampionship
DBirmingham 1-1 SouthamptonChampionship

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

West Brom

N. GalvesKnee Injury
M. JohnstonBroken Leg

Birmingham

M. BirdCalf Injury
T. Gardner-HickmanHamstring Injury
D. GrayMuscle Injury
M. LeonardAchilles Tendon Injury
S. WrightOff the roster

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices West Brom at 42% to win and Birmingham at 26%, with the draw at 32%. Our model makes a West Brom win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
West Brom Win	42%	41%	@ 2.25
Draw	32%	27%	@ 3.40
Birmingham Win	26%	32%	@ 2.90

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is West Brom or Draw at 1.40 (70% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
West Brom or Draw	70%	68%	@ 1.40
Birmingham or Draw	55%	59%	@ 1.62

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-0.9 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 62% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	82%	68%	@ 1.40
Over 1.5	65%	76%	@ 1.25
Under 2.5	62%	47%	@ 2.00
Over 2.5	38%	53%	@ 1.80
Under 1.5	35%	24%	@ 4.00
Over 3.5	18%	32%	@ 3.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 57%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	57%	42%	@ 2.20
BTTS Yes	43%	58%	@ 1.62

📈 How the market moved

West Brom 40%Draw 28%Birmingham 32%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for West Brom vs Birmingham?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.40, with a 82% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 68%.

Who is the favourite for West Brom vs Birmingham?

Our model makes a West Brom win the most likely result at 42%. It projects an expected 1.3-0.9 scoreline for West Brom vs Birmingham.

What is the predicted score for West Brom vs Birmingham?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.33 for West Brom and 0.88 for Birmingham. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do West Brom and Birmingham play?

Kick-off is Saturday 10 October 2026, 11:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.