Tue 13 Oct18:45Upcoming

⚽ Championship

Wolves vs Bolton Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Wolves vs Bolton in the Championship. Kick-off Tuesday 13 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Wolves face Bolton in the Championship, kicking off Tuesday 13 October 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Wolves have 3 wins from their last 5, while Bolton have 2 wins from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Wolves win the most likely result at 51%, projecting a 3.0-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Wolves vs Bolton with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 2.5 @ 1.62

80%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 3.04 – 1.25 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	1.4%	1.7%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%
1	4.2%	5.2%	3.3%	1.4%	0.4%
2	6.3%	7.9%	4.9%	2.1%	0.6%
3	6.4%	8.0%	5.0%	2.1%	0.7%
4	4.9%	6.1%	3.8%	1.6%	0.5%

Projected score: 3-1

Wolves winDrawBolton win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Wolves vs Bolton comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.62, with a 80% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Wolves win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 51%. Goals lean over 2.5 (80%), both teams to score points yes (68%).

📊 Key numbers

Wolves 51%Draw 24%Bolton 26%

51%24%26%

51%

Wolves Win

80%

Over 2.5 goals

68%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Wolves

Wolves come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to West Brom. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Middlesbrough.

LMiddlesbrough 1-0 WolvesChampionship
WWolves 1-0 West BromChampionship
LEverton 1-0 WolvesLeague Cup
WSheffield Utd 0-1 WolvesChampionship
DBirmingham 2-2 WolvesChampionship

Bolton

Bolton come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 4-3 at Norwich. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Stoke City.

LBolton 1-2 Stoke CityChampionship
WNorwich 3-4 BoltonChampionship
WBolton 1-0 CardiffChampionship
LBolton 2-3 West HamChampionship
LMillwall 4-0 BoltonChampionship

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 3 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Wolves

R. JimenezKnee Injury
Y. MosqueraAnkle Injury

Bolton

C. Forino-JosephGroin Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Wolves at 51% to win and Bolton at 26%, with the draw at 24%. Our model makes a Wolves win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Wolves Win	51%	67%	@ 1.40
Bolton Win	26%	12%	@ 7.50
Draw	24%	21%	@ 4.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Wolves or Draw at 1.10 (75% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Wolves or Draw	75%	88%	@ 1.10
Bolton or Draw	50%	33%	@ 2.75

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 3.0-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 80% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	93%	79%	@ 1.20
Over 2.5	80%	59%	@ 1.62
Over 3.5	62%	38%	@ 2.50
Under 3.5	38%	62%	@ 1.53
Under 2.5	20%	41%	@ 2.30
Under 1.5	7%	21%	@ 4.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 68%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	68%	51%	@ 1.80
BTTS No	32%	49%	@ 1.91

📈 How the market moved

Wolves 67%Draw 20%Bolton 13%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

🔬 What our models say about this match

🔍 What our models say about this match

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	73%
GradientBoosting	Home	43%

Both models that could assess this match agree. Our Dixon-Coles model has no reliable team ratings for this competition and was left out, so this rests on two models rather than three.

Expected goals: 1.60 for the home side, 1.05 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 3-1 (8%), 2-1 (8%), 3-0 (6%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Wolves vs Bolton?

Our model's pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.62, with a 80% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 59%.

Who is the favourite for Wolves vs Bolton?

Our model makes a Wolves win the most likely result at 51%. It projects an expected 3.0-1.2 scoreline for Wolves vs Bolton.

What is the predicted score for Wolves vs Bolton?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 3-1, based on expected goals of 3.04 for Wolves and 1.25 for Bolton. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Wolves and Bolton play?

Kick-off is Tuesday 13 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.