⚽ UEFA Europa League

Aarhus vs Benfica Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Aarhus vs Benfica in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Thursday 27 August 2026, 18:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Aarhus face Benfica in the UEFA Europa League, kicking off Thursday 27 August 2026, 18:00 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Benfica win the most likely result at 43%, projecting a 1.0-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Aarhus vs Benfica with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.60

88%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.01 – 0.88 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	15.1%	13.3%	5.8%	1.7%	0.4%
1	15.3%	13.4%	5.9%	1.7%	0.4%
2	7.7%	6.8%	3.0%	0.9%	0.2%
3	2.6%	2.3%	1.0%	0.3%	0.1%
4	0.7%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%

Projected score: 1-0

Aarhus winDrawBenfica win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Aarhus vs Benfica is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.60, the selection our model is most confident in at 88%. On the match result, the model rates a Benfica win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 43%. Goals lean under 2.5 (71%), both teams to score points no (63%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is under 2.5 goals at odds 2.50 (+76.6% model value).

Best value

Under 2.5 at odds 2.50, 71% model probability, +76.6% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Aarhus 17%Draw 39%Benfica 43%

17%39%43%

43%

Benfica Win

71%

Under 2.5 goals

63%

BTTS no

+76.6%

Best value: Under 2.5

📈 Recent form

Aarhus

Aarhus come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Sabah FA. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Benfica.

DAarhus 2-2 OdenseSuperliga
LBenfica 3-1 AarhusUEFA Europa League
LViborg 2-1 AarhusSuperliga
LSabah FA 4-0 AarhusUEFA Champions League
WAarhus 2-1 Sabah FAUEFA Champions League

Benfica

Benfica come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 19 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 7-0 at Casa Pia. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WBenfica 3-1 AarhusUEFA Europa League
WCasa Pia 0-7 BenficaPrimeira Liga
DHeart Of Midlothian 1-1 BenficaUEFA Europa League
DBenfica 2-2 Academico ViseuPrimeira Liga
WBenfica 6-1 Heart Of MidlothianUEFA Europa League

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Aarhus at 17% to win and Benfica at 43%, with the draw at 39%. Our model makes a Benfica win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	39%	@ 4.55	+79.2%
Aarhus Win	17%	@ 5.75	-1.1%
Benfica Win	43%	@ 1.48	-35.7%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Aarhus or Draw at 2.55 (49% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Aarhus or Draw	49%	@ 2.55	+25.7%
Benfica or Draw	76%	@ 1.12	-15.4%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.0-0.9 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 71% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 1.5	44%	@ 5.25	+129.2%
Under 2.5	71%	@ 2.50	+76.6%
Under 3.5	88%	@ 1.60	+40.2%
Over 1.5	56%	@ 1.15	-35.2%
Over 2.5	29%	@ 1.50	-56.0%
Over 3.5	12%	@ 2.30	-71.6%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 63%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	63%	@ 2.15	+35.4%
BTTS Yes	37%	@ 1.60	-40.8%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	38%
GradientBoosting	Away	48%

Our models are divided on this match. This pick rests on the ensemble weighting rather than on consensus.

Expected goals: 1.04 for the home side, 1.61 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (15%), 0-0 (15%), 1-1 (13%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Aarhus vs Benfica?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.60, with 88% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is under 2.5 goals at 2.50 (+76.6% value).

Who is the favourite for Aarhus vs Benfica?

Our model makes a Benfica win the most likely result at 43%. It projects an expected 1.0-0.9 scoreline for Aarhus vs Benfica.

What is the predicted score for Aarhus vs Benfica?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.01 for Aarhus and 0.88 for Benfica. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Aarhus and Benfica play?

Kick-off is Thursday 27 August 2026, 18:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.