⚽ Eredivisie

Ajax vs Heerenveen Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Ajax vs Heerenveen in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Sunday 16 August 2026, 14:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers All markets FAQ

Ajax face Heerenveen in the Eredivisie, kicking off Sunday 16 August 2026, 14:45 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Ajax won 2, Heerenveen won 1, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Ajax win the most likely result at 57%, projecting a 2.2-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Ajax vs Heerenveen with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 2.5 @ 1.42

65%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.24 – 1.11 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.5%	3.9%	2.2%	0.8%	0.2%
1	7.9%	8.7%	4.8%	1.8%	0.5%
2	8.8%	9.8%	5.4%	2.0%	0.6%
3	6.6%	7.3%	4.0%	1.5%	0.4%
4	3.7%	4.1%	2.3%	0.8%	0.2%

Projected score: 2-1

Ajax winDrawHeerenveen win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Ajax vs Heerenveen is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.42, the selection our model is most confident in at 65%. On the match result, the model rates an Ajax win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 57%. Goals lean over 2.5 (65%), both teams to score points yes (60%).

Best value

Under 3.5 at odds 1.70, 57% model probability, -3.2% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Ajax 57%Draw 25%Heerenveen 18%

57%25%18%

57%

Ajax Win

65%

Over 2.5 goals

60%

BTTS yes

-3.2%

Best value: Under 3.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Ajax and Heerenveen. Wins shown from Ajax’s perspective: Ajax 2 · 2 drawn · Heerenveen 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-05-17	Heerenveen	0 – 0	Ajax	D
2025-11-01	Ajax	1 – 1	Heerenveen	D
2025-01-19	Heerenveen	0 – 2	Ajax	W
2024-08-11	Ajax	1 – 0	Heerenveen	W
2024-02-11	Heerenveen	3 – 2	Ajax	L

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Ajax at 57% to win and Heerenveen at 18%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes an Ajax win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	25%	@ 4.70	+18.2%
Heerenveen Win	18%	@ 5.40	-2.4%
Ajax Win	57%	@ 1.49	-15.4%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Heerenveen or Draw at 2.55 (42% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Heerenveen or Draw	42%	@ 2.55	+7.6%
Ajax or Draw	81%	@ 1.14	-7.9%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.2-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 65% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 2.5	35%	@ 2.80	-2.1%
Under 3.5	57%	@ 1.70	-3.2%
Over 1.5	85%	@ 1.12	-5.1%
Over 2.5	65%	@ 1.42	-7.6%
Over 3.5	43%	@ 2.10	-9.6%
Under 1.5	15%	@ 5.75	-12.2%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 60%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	40%	@ 2.35	-6.9%
BTTS Yes	60%	@ 1.53	-7.6%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	68%
Dixon-Coles	Home	56%
GradientBoosting	Home	53%

All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.

Expected goals: 1.80 for the home side, 0.93 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Ajax vs Heerenveen?

Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.42, with 65% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Ajax vs Heerenveen?

Our model makes an Ajax win the most likely result at 57%. It projects an expected 2.2-1.1 scoreline for Ajax vs Heerenveen.

What is the predicted score for Ajax vs Heerenveen?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.24 for Ajax and 1.11 for Heerenveen. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Ajax and Heerenveen play?

Kick-off is Sunday 16 August 2026, 14:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.