Sun 16 Aug2-2Finished

⚽ Eredivisie

Ajax vs Heerenveen Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Ajax vs Heerenveen in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Sunday 16 August 2026, 14:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Ajax 2-2 Heerenveen

Ajax vs Heerenveen finished 2-2. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Ajax face Heerenveen in the upcoming Eredivisie tips, kicking off Sunday 16 August 2026, 14:45 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Ajax won 2, 3 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Ajax win the most likely result at 56%, projecting a 2.2-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Ajax vs Heerenveen with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Heerenveen +2 @ 1.40

76%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.18 – 1.10 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.8%	4.1%	2.3%	0.8%	0.2%
1	8.2%	9.0%	5.0%	1.8%	0.5%
2	8.9%	9.8%	5.4%	2.0%	0.5%
3	6.5%	7.1%	3.9%	1.4%	0.4%
4	3.5%	3.9%	2.1%	0.8%	0.2%

Projected score: 2-1

Ajax winDrawHeerenveen win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Ajax vs Heerenveen comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Heerenveen with a +2 start at odds 1.40, with a 76% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Ajax win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 56%. Goals lean over 2.5 (64%), both teams to score points yes (59%).

📊 Key numbers

Ajax 56%Draw 25%Heerenveen 18%

56%25%18%

56%

Ajax Win

64%

Over 2.5 goals

59%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Ajax and Heerenveen. Wins shown from Ajax’s perspective: Ajax 2 · 3 drawn.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-16	Ajax	2 – 2	Heerenveen	D
2026-05-17	Heerenveen	0 – 0	Ajax	D
2025-11-01	Ajax	1 – 1	Heerenveen	D
2025-01-19	Heerenveen	0 – 2	Ajax	W
2024-08-11	Ajax	1 – 0	Heerenveen	W

📈 Recent form

Ajax

Ajax come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 17 and conceding 7. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 5-1 at home to Willem II. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at home to PSV Eindhoven.

DAjax 2-2 ExcelsiorEredivisie
WAjax 5-1 Willem IIEredivisie
WFortuna Sittard 1-5 AjaxEredivisie
LAjax 1-3 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
WTelstar 0-4 AjaxEredivisie

Heerenveen

Heerenveen come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Sparta Rotterdam. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at home to AZ Alkmaar.

WSparta Rotterdam 0-4 HeerenveenEredivisie
DHeerenveen 0-0 TelstarEredivisie
LHeerenveen 2-3 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
DWillem II 2-2 HeerenveenEredivisie
LHeerenveen 0-2 PEC ZwolleEredivisie

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 5 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Ajax

D. BlindInjury
A. KaplanKnee Injury
J. SutaloInjury
A. van Axel DongenThigh Injury

Heerenveen

M. EgbringInjury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Ajax at 56% to win and Heerenveen at 18%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes an Ajax win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Ajax Win	56%	67%	@ 1.40
Draw	25%	19%	@ 5.00
Heerenveen Win	18%	15%	@ 6.40

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Ajax or Draw at 1.10 (80% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Ajax or Draw	80%	85%	@ 1.10
Heerenveen or Draw	42%	33%	@ 2.85

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.2-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 64% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	84%	86%	@ 1.09
Over 2.5	64%	69%	@ 1.36
Under 3.5	58%	52%	@ 1.82
Over 3.5	42%	48%	@ 1.95
Under 2.5	36%	31%	@ 3.00
Under 1.5	16%	14%	@ 6.75

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 59%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	59%	61%	@ 1.53
BTTS No	41%	39%	@ 2.35

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Ajax or Heerenveen is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Ajax +0.5	80%	85%	1.12
Heerenveen +2	76%	68%	@ 1.40
Ajax +0.25	75%	84%	1.13
Heerenveen +1.75	72%	60%	@ 1.58
Ajax 0	69%	83%	1.15
Heerenveen +1.5	67%	55%	@ 1.73
Ajax -0.25	63%	73%	1.29
Heerenveen +1.25	61%	50%	@ 1.94
Ajax -0.5	58%	66%	1.44
Heerenveen +1	55%	43%	@ 2.22
Ajax -0.75	51%	62%	1.52
Heerenveen +0.75	49%	38%	@ 2.52
Ajax -1	45%	57%	1.65
Heerenveen +0.5	42%	34%	@ 2.79
Ajax -1.25	39%	50%	1.91
Heerenveen +0.25	37%	27%	@ 3.54
Ajax -1.5	33%	45%	2.08
Heerenveen 0	31%	17%	@ 5.50
Ajax -1.75	28%	40%	2.42
Heerenveen -0.25	25%	16%	@ 5.90
Ajax -2	24%	32%	2.95
Heerenveen -0.5	20%	15%	@ 6.40

📈 How the market moved

Ajax 66%Draw 19%Heerenveen 15%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Ajax vs Heerenveen?

Our model's main pick is Heerenveen with a +2 start at odds 1.40, with a 76% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 68%.

Who is the favourite for Ajax vs Heerenveen?

Our model makes an Ajax win the most likely result at 56%. It projects an expected 2.2-1.1 scoreline for Ajax vs Heerenveen.

What is the predicted score for Ajax vs Heerenveen?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.18 for Ajax and 1.10 for Heerenveen. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Ajax and Heerenveen play?

Kick-off is Sunday 16 August 2026, 14:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.