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⚽ Eredivisie

Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Saturday 10 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Ajax face NEC Nijmegen in the Eredivisie, kicking off Saturday 10 October 2026, 19:00 UTC. Recent form: Ajax have 3 wins from their last 5, while NEC Nijmegen have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Ajax won 1, NEC Nijmegen won 1, 3 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Ajax win the most likely result at 52%, projecting a 2.0-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 2.5 @ 1.30

67%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.05 – 1.38 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.2%	4.5%	3.1%	1.4%	0.5%
1	6.6%	9.2%	6.3%	2.9%	1.0%
2	6.8%	9.4%	6.5%	3.0%	1.0%
3	4.7%	6.4%	4.4%	2.0%	0.7%
4	2.4%	3.3%	2.3%	1.0%	0.4%

Projected score: 2-1

Ajax winDrawNEC Nijmegen win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.30, with a 67% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Ajax win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 52%. Goals lean over 2.5 (67%), both teams to score points yes (66%).

📊 Key numbers

Ajax 52%Draw 24%NEC Nijmegen 24%

52%24%24%

52%

Ajax Win

67%

Over 2.5 goals

66%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Ajax and NEC Nijmegen. Wins shown from Ajax’s perspective: Ajax 1 · 3 drawn · NEC Nijmegen 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-02-21	Ajax	1 – 1	NEC Nijmegen	D
2025-12-20	NEC Nijmegen	2 – 2	Ajax	D
2025-05-11	Ajax	0 – 3	NEC Nijmegen	L
2024-12-01	NEC Nijmegen	1 – 2	Ajax	W
2024-02-18	Ajax	2 – 2	NEC Nijmegen	D

📈 Recent form

Ajax

Ajax come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 17 and conceding 7. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 5-1 at home to Willem II. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at home to PSV Eindhoven.

DAjax 2-2 ExcelsiorEredivisie
WAjax 5-1 Willem IIEredivisie
WFortuna Sittard 1-5 AjaxEredivisie
LAjax 1-3 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
WTelstar 0-4 AjaxEredivisie

NEC Nijmegen

NEC Nijmegen come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 13. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at PEC Zwolle. Their most recent defeat was 0-5 at Juventus.

DNEC Nijmegen 1-1 Go Ahead EaglesEredivisie
LJuventus 5-0 NEC NijmegenUEFA Europa League
LCambuur 3-0 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
LNEC Nijmegen 1-3 FeyenoordEredivisie
WPEC Zwolle 1-3 NEC NijmegenEredivisie

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Ajax at 52% to win and NEC Nijmegen at 24%, with the draw at 24%. Our model makes an Ajax win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Ajax Win	52%	72%	@ 1.30
Draw	24%	17%	@ 5.50
NEC Nijmegen Win	24%	10%	@ 9.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Ajax or Draw at 1.07 (76% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Ajax or Draw	76%	90%	@ 1.07
NEC Nijmegen or Draw	48%	28%	@ 3.75

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.0-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 67% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	86%	88%	@ 1.08
Over 2.5	67%	73%	@ 1.30
Under 3.5	55%	46%	@ 2.00
Over 3.5	45%	54%	@ 1.73
Under 2.5	33%	27%	@ 3.50
Under 1.5	14%	12%	@ 8.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 66%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	66%	59%	@ 1.57
BTTS No	34%	41%	@ 2.25

📈 How the market moved

Ajax 72%Draw 16%NEC Nijmegen 12%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen?

Our model's main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.30, with a 67% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 73%.

Who is the favourite for Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen?

Our model makes an Ajax win the most likely result at 52%. It projects an expected 2.0-1.4 scoreline for Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen.

What is the predicted score for Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.05 for Ajax and 1.38 for NEC Nijmegen. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Ajax and NEC Nijmegen play?

Kick-off is Saturday 10 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.