⚽ La Liga

Alaves vs Getafe Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Alaves vs Getafe in the La Liga. Kick-off Saturday 15 August 2026, 17:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers All markets FAQ

Alaves face Getafe in the La Liga, kicking off Saturday 15 August 2026, 17:30 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Alaves won 1, Getafe won 3, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Alaves win the most likely result at 37%, projecting a 1.1-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Alaves vs Getafe with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 2.5 @ 1.38

67%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.07 – 0.96 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	13.1%	12.6%	6.1%	1.9%	0.5%
1	14.1%	13.5%	6.5%	2.1%	0.5%
2	7.5%	7.2%	3.5%	1.1%	0.3%
3	2.7%	2.6%	1.2%	0.4%	0.1%
4	0.7%	0.7%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%

Projected score: 1-0

Alaves winDrawGetafe win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Alaves vs Getafe is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 2.5 goals at odds 1.38, the selection our model is most confident in at 67%. On the match result, the model rates an Alaves win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 37%. Goals lean under 2.5 (67%), both teams to score points no (60%).

Best value

Over 1.5 at odds 1.65, 60% model probability, -0.7% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Alaves 37%Draw 32%Getafe 31%

37%32%31%

37%

Alaves Win

67%

Under 2.5 goals

60%

BTTS no

-0.7%

Best value: Over 1.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Alaves and Getafe. Wins shown from Alaves’s perspective: Alaves 1 · 1 drawn · Getafe 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-02-08	Alaves	0 – 2	Getafe	L
2025-09-24	Getafe	1 – 1	Alaves	D
2025-02-09	Alaves	0 – 1	Getafe	L
2024-09-28	Getafe	2 – 0	Alaves	L
2024-05-18	Alaves	1 – 0	Getafe	W

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Alaves at 37% to win and Getafe at 31%, with the draw at 32%. Our model makes an Alaves win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Getafe Win	31%	@ 3.50	+10.0%
Draw	32%	@ 2.82	-11.0%
Alaves Win	37%	@ 2.32	-14.1%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Getafe or Draw at 1.57 (60% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Getafe or Draw	60%	@ 1.57	-5.2%
Alaves or Draw	66%	@ 1.28	-15.6%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.1-1.0 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 67% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 2.5	33%	@ 3.00	-0.6%
Over 1.5	60%	@ 1.65	-0.7%
Under 3.5	85%	@ 1.11	-5.5%
Over 3.5	15%	@ 6.25	-7.3%
Under 2.5	67%	@ 1.38	-7.7%
Under 1.5	40%	@ 2.20	-12.5%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 60%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	40%	@ 2.35	-5.0%
BTTS No	60%	@ 1.55	-7.7%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	39%
Dixon-Coles	Home	36%
GradientBoosting	Home	37%

All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.

Expected goals: 1.36 for the home side, 1.24 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 0-1 (14%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Alaves vs Getafe?

Our main pick is under 2.5 goals at odds 1.38, with 67% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Alaves vs Getafe?

Our model makes an Alaves win the most likely result at 37%. It projects an expected 1.1-1.0 scoreline for Alaves vs Getafe.

What is the predicted score for Alaves vs Getafe?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.07 for Alaves and 0.96 for Getafe. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Alaves and Getafe play?

Kick-off is Saturday 15 August 2026, 17:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.