⚽ La Liga

Alaves vs Villarreal Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Alaves vs Villarreal in the La Liga. Kick-off Friday 28 August 2026, 19:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Alaves face Villarreal in the La Liga, kicking off Friday 28 August 2026, 19:30 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Alaves won 1, Villarreal won 2, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Villarreal win the most likely result at 45%, projecting a 1.3-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Alaves vs Villarreal with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.25

79%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.34 – 1.59 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.3%	8.5%	6.7%	3.6%	1.4%
1	7.2%	11.4%	9.0%	4.8%	1.9%
2	4.8%	7.6%	6.1%	3.2%	1.3%
3	2.1%	3.4%	2.7%	1.4%	0.6%
4	0.7%	1.1%	0.9%	0.5%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Alaves winDrawVillarreal win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Alaves vs Villarreal is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, the selection our model is most confident in at 79%. On the match result, the model rates a Villarreal win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 45%. Goals lean over 2.5 (56%), both teams to score points yes (58%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Villarreal or Draw at odds 1.42 (+1.9% model value).

Best value

Villarreal or Draw at odds 1.42, 72% model probability, +1.9% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Alaves 27%Draw 28%Villarreal 45%

27%28%45%

45%

Villarreal Win

56%

Over 2.5 goals

58%

BTTS yes

+1.9%

Best value: Villarreal or Draw

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Alaves and Villarreal. Wins shown from Alaves’s perspective: Alaves 1 · 2 drawn · Villarreal 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-03-13	Alaves	1 – 1	Villarreal	D
2026-01-10	Villarreal	3 – 1	Alaves	L
2025-03-08	Alaves	1 – 0	Villarreal	W
2024-11-09	Villarreal	3 – 0	Alaves	L
2024-02-10	Alaves	1 – 1	Villarreal	D

📈 Recent form

Alaves

Alaves come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 2. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Getafe. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

DRayo Vallecano 1-1 AlavesLa Liga
WAlaves 3-0 GetafeLa Liga
WAlaves 3-0 CastellónFriendlies Clubs
WGirona 0-1 AlavesFriendlies Clubs
DAlaves 1-1 EibarFriendlies Clubs

Villarreal

Villarreal come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 7. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at PSV Eindhoven. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at Lens.

DRacing Santander 2-2 VillarrealLa Liga
WGalatasaray 1-2 VillarrealFriendlies Clubs
WVillarreal 1-0 LevanteFriendlies Clubs
LLens 3-1 VillarrealComo Cup
WPSV Eindhoven 1-3 VillarrealFriendlies Clubs

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Alaves at 27% to win and Villarreal at 45%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Villarreal win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Villarreal Win	45%	@ 2.40	+8.1%
Draw	28%	@ 3.45	-4.2%
Alaves Win	27%	@ 2.75	-25.3%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Villarreal or Draw at 1.42 (72% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Villarreal or Draw	72%	@ 1.42	+1.9%
Alaves or Draw	54%	@ 1.55	-16.4%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.6 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 56% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	34%	@ 3.00	+1.1%
Over 2.5	56%	@ 1.80	+1.0%
Over 1.5	79%	@ 1.25	-1.2%
Under 3.5	66%	@ 1.38	-8.5%
Under 2.5	44%	@ 2.00	-12.2%
Under 1.5	21%	@ 3.75	-21.3%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 58%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	58%	@ 1.62	-5.9%
BTTS No	42%	@ 2.20	-7.8%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Alaves vs Villarreal?

Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, with 79% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Villarreal or Draw at 1.42 (+1.9% value).

Who is the favourite for Alaves vs Villarreal?

Our model makes a Villarreal win the most likely result at 45%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.6 scoreline for Alaves vs Villarreal.

What is the predicted score for Alaves vs Villarreal?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.34 for Alaves and 1.59 for Villarreal. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Alaves and Villarreal play?

Kick-off is Friday 28 August 2026, 19:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.