⚽ Serie A

AS Roma vs Fiorentina Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for AS Roma vs Fiorentina in the Serie A. Kick-off Monday 24 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

AS Roma face Fiorentina in the Serie A, kicking off Monday 24 August 2026, 18:45 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, AS Roma won 3, Fiorentina won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an AS Roma win the most likely result at 57%, projecting a 1.7-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for AS Roma vs Fiorentina with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.28

74%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.72 – 0.93 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.1%	6.6%	3.1%	0.9%	0.2%
1	12.2%	11.3%	5.3%	1.6%	0.4%
2	10.5%	9.7%	4.5%	1.4%	0.3%
3	6.0%	5.6%	2.6%	0.8%	0.2%
4	2.6%	2.4%	1.1%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-0

AS Roma winDrawFiorentina win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for AS Roma vs Fiorentina is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.28, the selection our model is most confident in at 74%. On the match result, the model rates an AS Roma win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 57%. Goals lean under 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points no (50%).

Best value

Under 3.5 at odds 1.33, 72% model probability, -3.6% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

AS Roma 57%Draw 26%Fiorentina 17%

57%26%17%

57%

AS Roma Win

51%

Under 2.5 goals

50%

BTTS no

-3.6%

Best value: Under 3.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between AS Roma and Fiorentina. Wins shown from AS Roma’s perspective: AS Roma 3 · 1 drawn · Fiorentina 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-05-04	AS Roma	4 – 0	Fiorentina	W
2025-10-05	Fiorentina	1 – 2	AS Roma	W
2025-05-04	AS Roma	1 – 0	Fiorentina	W
2024-10-27	Fiorentina	5 – 1	AS Roma	L
2024-03-10	Fiorentina	2 – 2	AS Roma	D

📈 Recent form

AS Roma

AS Roma come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 13. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at Newport County. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at Brighton.

DBorussia Dortmund 2-2 AS RomaFriendlies Clubs
LBrighton 3-0 AS RomaFriendlies Clubs
WNewport County 1-4 AS RomaFriendlies Clubs
LCardiff 4-1 AS RomaFriendlies Clubs
DAS Roma 3-3 CannesFriendlies Clubs

Fiorentina

Fiorentina come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Watford. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-4 at Benevento.

LBenevento 4-1 FiorentinaCoppa Italia
DFiorentina 1-1 Deportivo La CorunaFriendlies Clubs
DReal Madrid 2-2 FiorentinaFriendlies Clubs
WWatford 0-1 FiorentinaFriendlies Clubs
LQPR 3-2 FiorentinaFriendlies Clubs

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 4 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

AS Roma

M. BahKnee Injury
L. PellegriniThigh Injury

Fiorentina

F. ParisiKnee Injury
R. SottilBack Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices AS Roma at 57% to win and Fiorentina at 17%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes an AS Roma win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Fiorentina Win	17%	@ 6.40	+7.1%
Draw	26%	@ 3.95	+4.8%
AS Roma Win	57%	@ 1.52	-13.8%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Fiorentina or Draw at 2.45 (41% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Fiorentina or Draw	41%	@ 2.45	+1.5%
AS Roma or Draw	81%	@ 1.11	-9.8%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-0.9 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 51% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 3.5	72%	@ 1.33	-3.6%
Under 2.5	51%	@ 1.90	-3.9%
Over 1.5	74%	@ 1.28	-5.0%
Over 2.5	49%	@ 1.85	-8.6%
Under 1.5	26%	@ 3.50	-9.7%
Over 3.5	28%	@ 3.20	-12.0%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 50%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	50%	@ 1.95	-3.0%
BTTS No	50%	@ 1.80	-9.6%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for AS Roma vs Fiorentina?

Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.28, with 74% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for AS Roma vs Fiorentina?

Our model makes an AS Roma win the most likely result at 57%. It projects an expected 1.7-0.9 scoreline for AS Roma vs Fiorentina.

What is the predicted score for AS Roma vs Fiorentina?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.72 for AS Roma and 0.93 for Fiorentina. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do AS Roma and Fiorentina play?

Kick-off is Monday 24 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.