⚽ Serie A

Atalanta vs Bologna Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Atalanta vs Bologna in the Serie A. Kick-off Monday 31 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Atalanta face Bologna in the Serie A, kicking off Monday 31 August 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Atalanta have 2 wins from their last 5, while Bologna have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Atalanta won 2, Bologna won 2, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Atalanta win the most likely result at 47%, projecting a 1.6-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Atalanta vs Bologna with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.25

75%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.59 – 1.10 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.8%	7.5%	4.1%	1.5%	0.4%
1	10.8%	11.9%	6.5%	2.4%	0.7%
2	8.6%	9.4%	5.2%	1.9%	0.5%
3	4.5%	5.0%	2.8%	1.0%	0.3%
4	1.8%	2.0%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Atalanta winDrawBologna win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Atalanta vs Bologna is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, the selection our model is most confident in at 75%. On the match result, the model rates an Atalanta win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 47%. Goals lean over 2.5 (50%), both teams to score points yes (53%).

Best value

Bologna or Draw at odds 1.90, 52% model probability, -1.2% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Atalanta 47%Draw 26%Bologna 26%

47%26%26%

47%

Atalanta Win

50%

Over 2.5 goals

53%

BTTS yes

-1.2%

Best value: Bologna or Draw

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Atalanta and Bologna. Wins shown from Atalanta’s perspective: Atalanta 2 · 1 drawn · Bologna 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-05-17	Atalanta	0 – 1	Bologna	L
2026-01-07	Bologna	0 – 2	Atalanta	W
2025-04-13	Atalanta	2 – 0	Bologna	W
2024-09-28	Bologna	1 – 1	Atalanta	D
2024-03-03	Atalanta	1 – 2	Bologna	L

📈 Recent form

Atalanta

Atalanta come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at FC Schalke 04. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Feyenoord.

WAtalanta 2-1 SassuoloSerie A
DAtalanta 0-0 Hapoel Tel AvivUEFA Europa Conference
WAtalanta 1-0 Athletic ClubFriendlies Clubs
WFC Schalke 04 0-3 AtalantaFriendlies Clubs
LFeyenoord 2-1 AtalantaFriendlies Clubs

Bologna

Bologna come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Cambuur. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Lazio.

LBologna 0-1 LazioSerie A
LBrighton 1-0 BolognaFriendlies Clubs
DBologna 1-1 PisaFriendlies Clubs
WBologna 3-1 CambuurFriendlies Clubs
WBologna 2-0 Iraklis 1908Friendlies Clubs

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Atalanta at 47% to win and Bologna at 26%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes an Atalanta win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Bologna Win	26%	@ 3.95	+2.8%
Draw	26%	@ 3.65	-3.2%
Atalanta Win	47%	@ 1.85	-12.2%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Bologna or Draw at 1.90 (52% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Bologna or Draw	52%	@ 1.90	-1.2%
Atalanta or Draw	73%	@ 1.22	-10.5%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 50% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 2.5	50%	@ 2.00	-0.8%
Under 3.5	72%	@ 1.38	-1.2%
Under 1.5	25%	@ 3.80	-4.8%
Over 1.5	75%	@ 1.25	-6.3%
Over 2.5	50%	@ 1.80	-9.3%
Over 3.5	28%	@ 3.00	-14.9%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 53%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	47%	@ 2.10	-1.7%
BTTS Yes	53%	@ 1.70	-9.6%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Atalanta vs Bologna?

Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, with 75% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Atalanta vs Bologna?

Our model makes an Atalanta win the most likely result at 47%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.1 scoreline for Atalanta vs Bologna.

What is the predicted score for Atalanta vs Bologna?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.59 for Atalanta and 1.10 for Bologna. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Atalanta and Bologna play?

Kick-off is Monday 31 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.