⚽ UEFA Europa Conference League

Atalanta vs Hapoel Tel Aviv Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Atalanta vs Hapoel Tel Aviv in the UEFA Europa Conference League. Kick-off Thursday 20 August 2026, 18:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Atalanta face Hapoel Tel Aviv in the UEFA Europa Conference League, kicking off Thursday 20 August 2026, 18:30 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a draw the most likely result at 61%, projecting a 1.6-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Atalanta vs Hapoel Tel Aviv with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.75

69%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.65 – 1.16 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.0%	7.0%	4.1%	1.6%	0.5%
1	9.9%	11.5%	6.7%	2.6%	0.7%
2	8.2%	9.5%	5.5%	2.1%	0.6%
3	4.5%	5.2%	3.0%	1.2%	0.3%
4	1.9%	2.2%	1.3%	0.5%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Atalanta winDrawHapoel Tel Aviv win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Atalanta vs Hapoel Tel Aviv is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.75, the selection our model is most confident in at 69%. On the match result, the model rates a draw the most likely 1X2 outcome at 61%. Goals lean over 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (55%).

Best value

Under 3.5 at odds 1.75, 69% model probability, +20.7% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Atalanta 19%Draw 61%Hapoel Tel Aviv 20%

19%61%20%

61%

Draw

53%

Over 2.5 goals

55%

BTTS yes

+20.7%

Best value: Under 3.5

📈 Recent form

Atalanta

Atalanta come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at FC Schalke 04. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Feyenoord.

WAtalanta 1-0 Athletic ClubFriendlies Clubs
WFC Schalke 04 0-3 AtalantaFriendlies Clubs
LFeyenoord 2-1 AtalantaFriendlies Clubs
DFiorentina 1-1 AtalantaSerie A
LAtalanta 0-1 BolognaSerie A

Hapoel Tel Aviv

Hapoel Tel Aviv come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to GKS Katowice. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at GKS Katowice.

WIroni Kiryat Shmona 1-2 Hapoel Tel AvivToto Cup Ligat Al
LGKS Katowice 2-1 Hapoel Tel AvivUEFA Europa Conference
WHapoel Tel Aviv 2-0 GKS KatowiceUEFA Europa Conference
DLudogorets 2-2 Hapoel Tel AvivUEFA Europa Conference
WHapoel Tel Aviv 2-0 LudogoretsUEFA Europa Conference

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Atalanta at 19% to win and Hapoel Tel Aviv at 20%, with the draw at 61%. Our model makes a draw the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	61%	@ 7.00	+326.9%
Hapoel Tel Aviv Win	20%	@ 17.00	+241.9%
Atalanta Win	19%	@ 1.15	-78.3%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Hapoel Tel Aviv or Draw at 5.00 (64% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Hapoel Tel Aviv or Draw	64%	@ 5.00	+219.2%
Atalanta or Draw	63%	@ 1.03	-35.5%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 53% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 1.5	23%	@ 6.00	+37.6%
Under 2.5	47%	@ 2.80	+30.8%
Under 3.5	69%	@ 1.75	+20.7%
Over 1.5	77%	@ 1.12	-13.7%
Over 2.5	53%	@ 1.42	-24.3%
Over 3.5	31%	@ 2.05	-36.4%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 55%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	55%	@ 2.15	+19.2%
BTTS No	45%	@ 1.60	-28.7%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	49%
GradientBoosting	Draw	73%

Our models are divided on this match. This pick rests on the ensemble weighting rather than on consensus.

Expected goals: 1.28 for the home side, 1.31 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Atalanta vs Hapoel Tel Aviv?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.75, with 69% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Atalanta vs Hapoel Tel Aviv?

Our model makes a draw the most likely result at 61%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.2 scoreline for Atalanta vs Hapoel Tel Aviv.

What is the predicted score for Atalanta vs Hapoel Tel Aviv?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.65 for Atalanta and 1.16 for Hapoel Tel Aviv. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Atalanta and Hapoel Tel Aviv play?

Kick-off is Thursday 20 August 2026, 18:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.