⚽ Serie A

Atalanta vs Sassuolo Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Atalanta vs Sassuolo in the Serie A. Kick-off Sunday 23 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Atalanta face Sassuolo in the Serie A, kicking off Sunday 23 August 2026, 18:45 UTC. In their last 4 meetings, Atalanta won 2, Sassuolo won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Atalanta win the most likely result at 55%, projecting a 1.9-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Atalanta vs Sassuolo with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.45

68%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.88 – 0.99 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.7%	5.6%	2.8%	0.9%	0.2%
1	10.7%	10.6%	5.2%	1.7%	0.4%
2	10.0%	9.9%	4.9%	1.6%	0.4%
3	6.3%	6.2%	3.1%	1.0%	0.3%
4	3.0%	2.9%	1.4%	0.5%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-0

Atalanta winDrawSassuolo win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Atalanta vs Sassuolo is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.45, the selection our model is most confident in at 68%. On the match result, the model rates an Atalanta win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 55%. Goals lean over 2.5 (55%), both teams to score points yes (53%).

Best value

Under 3.5 at odds 1.45, 68% model probability, -1.9% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Atalanta 55%Draw 28%Sassuolo 18%

55%28%18%

55%

Atalanta Win

55%

Over 2.5 goals

53%

BTTS yes

-1.9%

Best value: Under 3.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between Atalanta and Sassuolo. Wins shown from Atalanta’s perspective: Atalanta 2 · Sassuolo 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-03-01	Sassuolo	2 – 1	Atalanta	L
2025-11-09	Atalanta	0 – 3	Sassuolo	L
2024-02-17	Atalanta	3 – 0	Sassuolo	W
2023-08-20	Sassuolo	0 – 2	Atalanta	W

📈 Recent form

Atalanta

Atalanta come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at FC Schalke 04. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Feyenoord.

DAtalanta 0-0 Hapoel Tel AvivUEFA Europa Conference
WAtalanta 1-0 Athletic ClubFriendlies Clubs
WFC Schalke 04 0-3 AtalantaFriendlies Clubs
LFeyenoord 2-1 AtalantaFriendlies Clubs
DFiorentina 1-1 AtalantaSerie A

Sassuolo

Sassuolo come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Cesena. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at FC Augsburg.

WSassuolo 3-0 CesenaCoppa Italia
LFC Augsburg 3-2 SassuoloFriendlies Clubs
LSassuolo 1-4 Celta VigoFriendlies Clubs
DSassuolo 0-0 Folgore CarateseFriendlies Clubs
WSassuolo 4-1 PadovaFriendlies Clubs

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 11 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Atalanta

I. HienMuscle Injury
G. ScalviniAnkle Injury
K. SulemanaKnee Injury
H. AhanorMuscle Injury

Sassuolo

F. CandeKnee Injury
I. KoneBroken Leg
Y. PazKnee Injury
E. PieragnoloKnee Injury
D. BerardiAnkle Injury
D. BolocaMuscle Injury
S. WalukiewiczLeg Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Atalanta at 55% to win and Sassuolo at 18%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes an Atalanta win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	28%	@ 4.20	+15.9%
Sassuolo Win	18%	@ 5.90	+4.5%
Atalanta Win	55%	@ 1.51	-17.4%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Sassuolo or Draw at 2.45 (43% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Sassuolo or Draw	43%	@ 2.45	+5.8%
Atalanta or Draw	80%	@ 1.12	-10.3%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.9-1.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 55% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 3.5	68%	@ 1.45	-1.9%
Under 2.5	45%	@ 2.15	-2.6%
Over 1.5	78%	@ 1.22	-4.8%
Under 1.5	22%	@ 4.20	-7.8%
Over 2.5	55%	@ 1.67	-8.6%
Over 3.5	32%	@ 2.70	-12.6%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 53%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	47%	@ 2.00	-6.1%
BTTS Yes	53%	@ 1.75	-7.2%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	62%
Dixon-Coles	Home	54%
GradientBoosting	Home	52%

All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.

Expected goals: 1.77 for the home side, 0.95 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (12%), 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (10%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Atalanta vs Sassuolo?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.45, with 68% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Atalanta vs Sassuolo?

Our model makes an Atalanta win the most likely result at 55%. It projects an expected 1.9-1.0 scoreline for Atalanta vs Sassuolo.

What is the predicted score for Atalanta vs Sassuolo?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.88 for Atalanta and 0.99 for Sassuolo. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Atalanta and Sassuolo play?

Kick-off is Sunday 23 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.