vs
⚽ La Liga
Athletic Club vs Sevilla Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Athletic Club vs Sevilla in the La Liga. Kick-off Saturday 22 August 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Athletic Club face Sevilla in the La Liga, kicking off Saturday 22 August 2026, 15:00 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Athletic Club won 3, Sevilla won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Athletic Club win the most likely result at 45%, projecting a 1.7-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Athletic Club vs Sevilla with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 10.3% | 11.5% | 6.4% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 8.7% | 9.6% | 5.3% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 4.9% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Athletic Club vs Sevilla is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Sevilla with a +1.75 start at odds 1.26, the selection our model is most confident in at 79%. On the match result, the model rates an Athletic Club win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 45%. Goals lean over 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (54%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is over 2.5 goals at odds 2.20 (+16.2% model value).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Athletic Club and Sevilla. Wins shown from Athletic Club’s perspective: Athletic Club 3 · 1 drawn · Sevilla 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Sevilla | 2 – 1 | Athletic Club | L |
| 2025-08-17 | Athletic Club | 3 – 2 | Sevilla | W |
| 2025-03-16 | Sevilla | 0 – 1 | Athletic Club | W |
| 2024-09-29 | Athletic Club | 1 – 1 | Sevilla | D |
| 2024-05-19 | Athletic Club | 2 – 0 | Sevilla | W |
📈 Recent form
Athletic Club come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at America Mineiro. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at home to CRB.
- LAthletic Club 0-2 CRBSerie B
- WAmerica Mineiro 1-3 Athletic ClubSerie B
- LAtalanta 1-0 Athletic ClubFriendlies Clubs
- LMarseille 3-1 Athletic ClubFriendlies Clubs
- WAthletic Club 2-0 CriciumaSerie B
Sevilla come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Rayo Vallecano. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Bayer Leverkusen.
- WSevilla 2-1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- LBayer Leverkusen 2-1 SevillaFriendlies Clubs
- WUtrecht 0-1 SevillaFriendlies Clubs
- WNEC Nijmegen 1-2 SevillaFriendlies Clubs
- WSevilla 2-1 AD Ceuta FCFriendlies Clubs
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 10 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- U. EgiluzKnee Injury
- A. GorosabelMuscle Injury
- B. Prados DiazNot in squad
- N. SerranoCoach's decision
- U. VencedorNot in squad
- D. VivianHamstring Injury
- A. GonzalezMuscle Injury
- MarcaoFoot Injury
- K. SalasSuspended (red card)
- R. VargasInjury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Athletic Club at 45% to win and Sevilla at 23%, with the draw at 32%. Our model makes an Athletic Club win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla Win | 23% | @ 5.20 | +20.5% |
| Draw | 32% | @ 3.50 | +10.4% |
| Athletic Club Win | 45% | @ 1.69 | -23.5% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Sevilla or Draw at 2.10 (52% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla or Draw | 52% | @ 2.10 | +8.4% |
| Athletic Club or Draw | 74% | @ 1.15 | -15.2% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 53% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | 31% | @ 4.20 | +28.4% |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | @ 2.20 | +16.2% |
| Over 1.5 | 77% | @ 1.40 | +7.4% |
| Under 3.5 | 69% | @ 1.22 | -15.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | @ 1.65 | -22.1% |
| Under 1.5 | 23% | @ 2.90 | -32.5% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 54%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 54% | @ 2.10 | +13.9% |
| BTTS No | 46% | @ 1.70 | -22.2% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Athletic Club or Sevilla is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla -0.75 | 22% | @ 6.60 | +46.7% |
| Sevilla 0 | 39% | @ 3.67 | +43.1% |
| Sevilla -0.25 | 33% | @ 4.34 | +41.6% |
| Sevilla -0.5 | 26% | @ 4.85 | +27.6% |
| Sevilla +0.25 | 45% | @ 2.58 | +17.0% |
| Sevilla +0.5 | 52% | @ 2.17 | +11.7% |
| Sevilla +0.75 | 58% | @ 1.90 | +9.2% |
| Sevilla +1.5 | 75% | @ 1.37 | +3.2% |
| Sevilla +1.25 | 69% | @ 1.47 | +1.8% |
| Sevilla +1 | 63% | @ 1.60 | +1.6% |
| Athletic Club -2 | 18% | @ 5.75 | +0.5% |
| Sevilla +1.75 | 79% | 1.26 | -0.7% |
| Sevilla +2 | 82% | 1.14 | -5.9% |
| Athletic Club +0.75 | 78% | 1.11 | -13.7% |
| Athletic Club -1 | 37% | 2.33 | -14.7% |
| Athletic Club +0.5 | 74% | 1.16 | -14.9% |
| Athletic Club -0.75 | 42% | 1.99 | -15.6% |
| Athletic Club -1.25 | 31% | 2.73 | -16.0% |
| Athletic Club -1.75 | 21% | 3.91 | -17.3% |
| Athletic Club -0.25 | 55% | 1.51 | -17.4% |
| Athletic Club +0.25 | 67% | 1.23 | -17.5% |
| Athletic Club -0.5 | 48% | 1.68 | -18.9% |
| Athletic Club 0 | 61% | 1.28 | -21.9% |
| Athletic Club -1.5 | 25% | 3.02 | -25.0% |
🔬 How our AI model reached this pick
| Model | Match result | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Poisson | Home | 56% |
| Dixon-Coles | Home | 46% |
| GradientBoosting | Home | 42% |
All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.
Expected goals: 1.56 for the home side, 1.08 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%).
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Athletic Club vs Sevilla?
Our main pick is Sevilla with a +1.75 start at odds 1.26, with 79% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is over 2.5 goals at 2.20 (+16.2% value).
Who is the favourite for Athletic Club vs Sevilla?
Our model makes an Athletic Club win the most likely result at 45%. It projects an expected 1.7-1.1 scoreline for Athletic Club vs Sevilla.
What is the predicted score for Athletic Club vs Sevilla?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.68 for Athletic Club and 1.11 for Sevilla. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Athletic Club and Sevilla play?
Kick-off is Saturday 22 August 2026, 15:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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