⚽ La Liga
Atlético Madrid vs Villarreal Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Atlético Madrid vs Villarreal in the La Liga. Kick-off Sunday 23 August 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Result: Atlético Madrid 2-2 Villarreal
Atlético Madrid vs Villarreal finished 2-2. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Atlético Madrid face Villarreal in the upcoming La Liga tips, kicking off Sunday 23 August 2026, 15:00 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Atlético Madrid won 1, Villarreal won 1, 3 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Atlético Madrid win the most likely result at 44%, projecting a 1.9-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Atlético Madrid vs Villarreal with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 6.9% | 9.7% | 6.9% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 6.6% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| 3 | 4.2% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Atlético Madrid vs Villarreal comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Villarreal with a +1.5 start at odds 1.33, with a 78% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Atlético Madrid win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 44%. Goals lean over 2.5 (64%), both teams to score points yes (64%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Atlético Madrid and Villarreal. Wins shown from Atlético Madrid’s perspective: Atlético Madrid 1 · 3 drawn · Villarreal 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Atlético Madrid | 2 – 2 | Villarreal | D |
| 2026-05-24 | Villarreal | 5 – 1 | Atlético Madrid | L |
| 2025-09-13 | Atlético Madrid | 2 – 0 | Villarreal | W |
| 2025-01-25 | Atlético Madrid | 1 – 1 | Villarreal | D |
| 2024-08-19 | Villarreal | 2 – 2 | Atlético Madrid | D |
📈 Recent form
Atlético Madrid come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Osasuna. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Liverpool.
- WAtlético Madrid 2-1 Real MadridLa Liga
- WAtlético Madrid 4-0 OsasunaLa Liga
- WReal Sociedad 0-3 Atlético MadridLa Liga
- LLiverpool 2-1 Atlético MadridUEFA Champions League
- LAthletic Club 3-0 Atlético MadridLa Liga
Villarreal come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Levante. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Real Betis.
- WVillarreal 3-1 LevanteLa Liga
- WMálaga 1-3 VillarrealLa Liga
- LVillarreal 1-2 Real BetisLa Liga
- LBorussia Dortmund 3-2 VillarrealUEFA Champions League
- LVillarreal 2-3 Deportivo La CoruñaLa Liga
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- T. LemarCoach's decision
- C. RomeroLacking Match Fitness
- A. SorlothMuscle Injury
- O. VargasCoach's decision
- A. DiattaSuspended (red card)
- W. KambwalaTransfer negotiations
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Atlético Madrid at 44% to win and Villarreal at 30%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes an Atlético Madrid win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid Win | 44% | 52% | @ 1.82 |
| Villarreal Win | 30% | 23% | @ 4.20 |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | @ 3.75 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Atlético Madrid or Draw at 1.22 (70% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid or Draw | 70% | 77% | @ 1.22 |
| Villarreal or Draw | 56% | 48% | @ 1.96 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.9-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 64% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 84% | 76% | @ 1.24 |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 52% | @ 1.81 |
| Under 3.5 | 58% | 69% | @ 1.36 |
| Over 3.5 | 42% | 31% | @ 3.05 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 48% | @ 1.96 |
| Under 1.5 | 16% | 24% | @ 3.90 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 64%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 64% | 54% | @ 1.71 |
| BTTS No | 36% | 46% | @ 2.04 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Atlético Madrid or Villarreal is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal +2 | 85% | 84% | 1.12 |
| Villarreal +1.75 | 82% | 77% | 1.22 |
| Villarreal +1.5 | 78% | 71% | @ 1.33 |
| Atlético Madrid +0.75 | 75% | 82% | 1.16 |
| Villarreal +1.25 | 73% | 68% | @ 1.40 |
| Atlético Madrid +0.5 | 70% | 76% | 1.24 |
| Villarreal +1 | 67% | 64% | @ 1.50 |
| Atlético Madrid +0.25 | 64% | 73% | 1.30 |
| Villarreal +0.75 | 61% | 55% | @ 1.74 |
| Atlético Madrid 0 | 57% | 69% | 1.39 |
| Villarreal +0.5 | 56% | 48% | @ 1.98 |
| Atlético Madrid -0.25 | 51% | 59% | 1.63 |
| Villarreal +0.25 | 49% | 41% | @ 2.31 |
| Atlético Madrid -0.5 | 44% | 52% | 1.84 |
| Villarreal 0 | 43% | 31% | @ 3.07 |
| Atlético Madrid -0.75 | 39% | 45% | 2.12 |
| Villarreal -0.25 | 36% | 27% | @ 3.54 |
| Atlético Madrid -1 | 33% | 36% | 2.62 |
| Villarreal -0.5 | 30% | 24% | @ 3.96 |
| Atlético Madrid -1.25 | 27% | 32% | 3.02 |
| Villarreal -0.75 | 25% | 18% | @ 5.25 |
| Atlético Madrid -1.5 | 22% | 29% | 3.26 |
| Atlético Madrid -1.75 | 18% | 23% | 4.15 |
| Atlético Madrid -2 | 15% | 16% | 6.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Atlético Madrid vs Villarreal?
Our model's main pick is Villarreal with a +1.5 start at odds 1.33, with a 78% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 71%.
Who is the favourite for Atlético Madrid vs Villarreal?
Our model makes an Atlético Madrid win the most likely result at 44%. It projects an expected 1.9-1.4 scoreline for Atlético Madrid vs Villarreal.
What is the predicted score for Atlético Madrid vs Villarreal?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.91 for Atlético Madrid and 1.41 for Villarreal. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Atlético Madrid and Villarreal play?
Kick-off is Sunday 23 August 2026, 15:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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