⚽ Major League Soccer
Austin vs Philadelphia Union Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Austin vs Philadelphia Union in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Sunday 23 August 2026, 00:30 UTC.
Result: Austin 1-1 Philadelphia Union
Austin vs Philadelphia Union finished 1-1. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Austin face Philadelphia Union in the upcoming Major League Soccer tips, kicking off Sunday 23 August 2026, 00:30 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Philadelphia Union win the most likely result at 40%, projecting a 1.7-2.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Austin vs Philadelphia Union with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.0% |
| 1 | 3.4% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 3.4% |
| 2 | 2.9% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 2.9% |
| 3 | 1.7% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.6% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Austin vs Philadelphia Union comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Austin with a +1.5 start at odds 1.29, with a 82% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Philadelphia Union win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 40%. Goals lean over 2.5 (75%), both teams to score points yes (72%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 2 meetings between Austin and Philadelphia Union. Wins shown from Austin’s perspective: 2 drawn.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Austin | 1 – 1 | Philadelphia Union | D |
| 2024-03-17 | Austin | 2 – 2 | Philadelphia Union | D |
📈 Recent form
Austin come into this game with 2 wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Vancouver Whitecaps.
- DFC Dallas 0-0 AustinMajor League Soccer
- WVancouver Whitecaps 1-2 AustinMajor League Soccer
- DAustin 1-1 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
- DAustin 1-1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- WPortland Timbers 1-2 AustinMajor League Soccer
Philadelphia Union come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 19 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at San Diego. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WSporting Kansas City 3-4 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- WSan Diego 0-5 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- WPhiladelphia Union 5-0 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- WPhiladelphia Union 2-0 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- WNew York Red Bulls 1-3 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 1 player listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- O. WolffAnkle Injury
No absentees reported.
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Austin at 36% to win and Philadelphia Union at 40%, with the draw at 24%. Our model makes a Philadelphia Union win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union Win | 40% | 46% | @ 2.04 |
| Austin Win | 36% | 29% | @ 3.25 |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | @ 3.60 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Philadelphia Union or Draw at 1.32 (65% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union or Draw | 65% | 71% | @ 1.32 |
| Austin or Draw | 61% | 54% | @ 1.74 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-2.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 75% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | @ 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 59% | @ 1.61 |
| Over 3.5 | 55% | 38% | @ 2.50 |
| Under 3.5 | 45% | 62% | @ 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 41% | @ 2.28 |
| Under 1.5 | 10% | 20% | @ 4.60 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 72%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 72% | 62% | @ 1.50 |
| BTTS No | 28% | 38% | @ 2.43 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Austin or Philadelphia Union is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austin +2 | 88% | 84% | 1.12 |
| Austin +1.75 | 85% | 78% | @ 1.21 |
| Philadelphia Union +1.5 | 85% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Austin +1.5 | 82% | 73% | @ 1.29 |
| Philadelphia Union +1.25 | 80% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Austin +1.25 | 77% | 70% | @ 1.36 |
| Philadelphia Union +1 | 75% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Austin +1 | 72% | 66% | @ 1.46 |
| Philadelphia Union +0.75 | 70% | 78% | 1.23 |
| Austin +0.75 | 67% | 58% | @ 1.64 |
| Philadelphia Union +0.5 | 65% | – | 1.32 |
| Austin +0.5 | 61% | 53% | @ 1.80 |
| Philadelphia Union +0.25 | 58% | 69% | 1.38 |
| Austin +0.25 | 55% | 45% | @ 2.12 |
| Philadelphia Union 0 | 52% | 64% | 1.50 |
| Austin 0 | 48% | 36% | @ 2.65 |
| Philadelphia Union -0.25 | 45% | 55% | 1.74 |
| Austin -0.25 | 42% | 31% | @ 3.11 |
| Philadelphia Union -0.5 | 39% | 47% | 2.00 |
| Philadelphia Union -0.75 | 33% | 42% | 2.29 |
| Austin -0.75 | 30% | 22% | @ 4.34 |
| Philadelphia Union -1 | 28% | 34% | 2.78 |
| Austin -1 | 25% | 15% | @ 6.40 |
| Philadelphia Union -1.25 | 23% | 30% | 3.17 |
| Austin -1.25 | 20% | 14% | @ 6.80 |
| Philadelphia Union -1.5 | 18% | 27% | 3.49 |
| Austin -1.5 | 15% | 14% | @ 6.80 |
| Philadelphia Union -1.75 | 15% | 22% | 4.25 |
| Philadelphia Union -2 | 12% | 16% | 6.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Austin vs Philadelphia Union?
Our model's main pick is Austin with a +1.5 start at odds 1.29, with a 82% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 73%.
Who is the favourite for Austin vs Philadelphia Union?
Our model makes a Philadelphia Union win the most likely result at 40%. It projects an expected 1.7-2.2 scoreline for Austin vs Philadelphia Union.
What is the predicted score for Austin vs Philadelphia Union?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-2, based on expected goals of 1.71 for Austin and 2.21 for Philadelphia Union. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Austin and Philadelphia Union play?
Kick-off is Sunday 23 August 2026, 00:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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