Beitar Jerusalem

Thu 30 Jul2-3Finished

AEK Larnaca

⚽ UEFA Europa Conference League

Beitar Jerusalem vs AEK Larnaca Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Beitar Jerusalem vs AEK Larnaca in the UEFA Europa Conference League. Kick-off Thursday 30 July 2026, 17:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Beitar Jerusalem 2-3 AEK Larnaca

Beitar Jerusalem vs AEK Larnaca finished 2-3. AEK Larnaca won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Our pre-match best bet, over 1.5 goals at 1.30, landed.

Beitar Jerusalem face AEK Larnaca in the upcoming UEFA Europa Conference League tips, kicking off Thursday 30 July 2026, 17:30 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, Beitar Jerusalem won 1, AEK Larnaca won 1. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Beitar Jerusalem win the most likely result at 46%, projecting a 1.9-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Beitar Jerusalem vs AEK Larnaca with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.30

85%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.90 – 1.46 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.5%	5.1%	3.7%	1.8%	0.7%
1	6.6%	9.6%	7.0%	3.4%	1.2%
2	6.3%	9.2%	6.7%	3.3%	1.2%
3	4.0%	5.8%	4.2%	2.1%	0.8%
4	1.9%	2.8%	2.0%	1.0%	0.4%

Projected score: 1-1

Beitar Jerusalem winDrawAEK Larnaca win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Beitar Jerusalem vs AEK Larnaca comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.30, the selection our model is most confident in at 85%. On the match result, the model rates a Beitar Jerusalem win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 46%. Goals lean over 2.5 (65%), both teams to score points yes (65%).

📊 Key numbers

Beitar Jerusalem 46%Draw 28%AEK Larnaca 26%

46%28%26%

46%

Beitar Jerusalem Win

65%

Over 2.5 goals

65%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Beitar Jerusalem and AEK Larnaca. Wins shown from Beitar Jerusalem’s perspective: Beitar Jerusalem 1 · AEK Larnaca 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-07-30	Beitar Jerusalem	2 – 3	AEK Larnaca	L
2026-07-23	AEK Larnaca	0 – 1	Beitar Jerusalem	W

📈 Recent form

Beitar Jerusalem

Beitar Jerusalem come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 11. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Hapoel Haifa. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at Hapoel Tel Aviv.

WBeitar Jerusalem 2-1 Hapoel HaifaLigat Ha'al
WBnei Sakhnin 0-1 Beitar JerusalemLigat Ha'al
LHapoel Tel Aviv 3-0 Beitar JerusalemLigat Ha'al
LBeitar Jerusalem 1-4 Maccabi NetanyaLigat Ha'al
DHapoel Ramat Gan 3-3 Beitar JerusalemToto Cup Ligat Al

AEK Larnaca

AEK Larnaca come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at Nea Salamis. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at home to Pafos.

WOmonia 29is Maiou 1-2 AEK Larnaca1. Division
LAEK Larnaca 0-1 Pafos1. Division
WNea Salamis 1-4 AEK Larnaca1. Division
WAEK Larnaca 3-1 Apoel Nicosia1. Division
WBeitar Jerusalem 2-3 AEK LarnacaUEFA Europa Conference

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Beitar Jerusalem at 46% to win and AEK Larnaca at 26%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Beitar Jerusalem win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Beitar Jerusalem Win	46%	43%	@ 2.17
Draw	28%	29%	@ 3.25
AEK Larnaca Win	26%	29%	@ 3.25

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Beitar Jerusalem or Draw at 1.28 (70% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Beitar Jerusalem or Draw	70%	71%	@ 1.28
AEK Larnaca or Draw	54%	57%	@ 1.60

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.9-1.5 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 65% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	85%	70%	@ 1.30
Over 2.5	65%	47%	@ 1.96
Under 3.5	57%	73%	@ 1.26
Over 3.5	43%	27%	@ 3.40
Under 2.5	35%	53%	@ 1.72
Under 1.5	15%	30%	@ 3.10

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 65%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	65%	52%	@ 1.77
BTTS No	35%	48%	@ 1.91

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Beitar Jerusalem vs AEK Larnaca?

Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.30, with a 85% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 70%.

Who is the favourite for Beitar Jerusalem vs AEK Larnaca?

Our model makes a Beitar Jerusalem win the most likely result at 46%. It projects an expected 1.9-1.5 scoreline for Beitar Jerusalem vs AEK Larnaca.

What is the predicted score for Beitar Jerusalem vs AEK Larnaca?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.90 for Beitar Jerusalem and 1.46 for AEK Larnaca. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Beitar Jerusalem and AEK Larnaca play?

Kick-off is Thursday 30 July 2026, 17:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.