Thu 20 Aug3-1Finished

Aarhus

⚽ UEFA Europa League

Benfica vs Aarhus Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Benfica vs Aarhus in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Thursday 20 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Benfica 3-1 Aarhus

Benfica vs Aarhus finished 3-1. Benfica won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Benfica face Aarhus in the upcoming UEFA Europa League tips, kicking off Thursday 20 August 2026, 19:00 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, Benfica won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Benfica win the most likely result at 49%, projecting a 2.9-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Benfica vs Aarhus with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Aarhus +2 @ 2.10

78%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.88 – 1.05 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	2.0%	2.1%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%
1	5.7%	5.9%	3.1%	1.1%	0.3%
2	8.1%	8.6%	4.5%	1.6%	0.4%
3	7.8%	8.2%	4.3%	1.5%	0.4%
4	5.6%	5.9%	3.1%	1.1%	0.3%

Projected score: 2-1

Benfica winDrawAarhus win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Benfica vs Aarhus comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Aarhus with a +2 start at odds 2.10, with a 78% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Benfica win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 49%. Goals lean over 2.5 (75%), both teams to score points yes (61%).

📊 Key numbers

Benfica 49%Draw 36%Aarhus 15%

49%36%15%

49%

Benfica Win

75%

Over 2.5 goals

61%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Benfica and Aarhus. Wins shown from Benfica’s perspective: Benfica 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-27	Aarhus	1 – 3	Benfica	W
2026-08-20	Benfica	3 – 1	Aarhus	W

📈 Recent form

Benfica

Benfica come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 13 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Moreirense. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at FC Porto.

LFC Porto 3-1 BenficaPrimeira Liga
WAC Milan 0-2 BenficaUEFA Europa League
WBenfica 3-1 Gil VicentePrimeira Liga
WMoreirense 0-4 BenficaPrimeira Liga
WMarítimo 0-3 BenficaPrimeira Liga

Aarhus

Aarhus come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 6-1 at Skjold Sæby. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at FC Nordsjaelland.

DAC Horsens 2-2 AarhusSuperliga
WSkjold Sæby 1-6 AarhusDBU Pokalen
LFC Nordsjaelland 2-0 AarhusSuperliga
DAarhus 2-2 SilkeborgSuperliga
LAarhus 0-2 FC MidtjyllandSuperliga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Benfica at 49% to win and Aarhus at 15%, with the draw at 36%. Our model makes a Benfica win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Benfica Win	49%	81%	@ 1.14
Draw	36%	12%	@ 7.50
Aarhus Win	15%	7%	@ 13.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Benfica or Draw at 1.01 (79% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Benfica or Draw	79%	93%	@ 1.01
Aarhus or Draw	45%	19%	@ 4.10

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.9-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 75% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	90%	86%	@ 1.06
Over 2.5	75%	73%	@ 1.25
Over 3.5	55%	54%	@ 1.68
Under 3.5	45%	46%	@ 2.00
Under 2.5	25%	27%	@ 3.40
Under 1.5	10%	14%	@ 6.75

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 61%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	61%	51%	@ 1.78
BTTS No	39%	49%	@ 1.89

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Benfica or Aarhus is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Aarhus +2	78%	44%	@ 2.10
Aarhus +1.75	74%	40%	@ 2.33
Aarhus +1.5	69%	37%	@ 2.49
Aarhus +1.25	63%	30%	@ 3.04
Benfica -0.25	61%	85%	1.12
Benfica -0.5	55%	–	1.23
Benfica -0.75	49%	–	1.30
Benfica -1	43%	–	1.24
Aarhus +0.25	39%	15%	@ 6.40
Benfica -1.25	37%	70%	1.32
Benfica -1.5	31%	63%	1.48
Benfica -1.75	26%	60%	1.53
Benfica -2	22%	56%	1.67

📈 How the market moved

Benfica 80%Draw 12%Aarhus 7%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Benfica vs Aarhus?

Our model's main pick is Aarhus with a +2 start at odds 2.10, with a 78% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 44%.

Who is the favourite for Benfica vs Aarhus?

Our model makes a Benfica win the most likely result at 49%. It projects an expected 2.9-1.1 scoreline for Benfica vs Aarhus.

What is the predicted score for Benfica vs Aarhus?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.88 for Benfica and 1.05 for Aarhus. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Benfica and Aarhus play?

Kick-off is Thursday 20 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.