⚽ UEFA Europa League

Benfica vs Aarhus Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Benfica vs Aarhus in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Thursday 20 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Benfica face Aarhus in the UEFA Europa League, kicking off Thursday 20 August 2026, 19:00 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Benfica win the most likely result at 49%, projecting a 2.9-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Benfica vs Aarhus with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 2.5 @ 1.40

75%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.88 – 1.05 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	2.0%	2.1%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%
1	5.7%	5.9%	3.1%	1.1%	0.3%
2	8.1%	8.6%	4.5%	1.6%	0.4%
3	7.8%	8.2%	4.3%	1.5%	0.4%
4	5.6%	5.9%	3.1%	1.1%	0.3%

Projected score: 2-1

Benfica winDrawAarhus win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Benfica vs Aarhus is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.40, the selection our model is most confident in at 75%. On the match result, the model rates a Benfica win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 49%. Goals lean over 2.5 (75%), both teams to score points yes (61%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is both teams to score at odds 2.05 (+25.8% model value).

Best value

BTTS Yes at odds 2.05, 61% model probability, +25.8% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Benfica 49%Draw 36%Aarhus 15%

49%36%15%

49%

Benfica Win

75%

Over 2.5 goals

61%

BTTS yes

+25.8%

Best value: BTTS Yes

📈 Recent form

Benfica

Benfica come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 21 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 7-0 at Casa Pia. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WCasa Pia 0-7 BenficaPrimeira Liga
DHeart Of Midlothian 1-1 BenficaUEFA Europa League
DBenfica 2-2 Academico ViseuPrimeira Liga
WBenfica 6-1 Heart Of MidlothianUEFA Europa League
WBenfica 5-0 FC ST. GallenUEFA Europa League

Aarhus

Aarhus come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Lech Poznan. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Viborg.

LViborg 2-1 AarhusSuperliga
LSabah FA 4-0 AarhusUEFA Champions League
WAarhus 2-1 Sabah FAUEFA Champions League
DLyngby 2-2 AarhusSuperliga
WLech Poznan 0-3 AarhusUEFA Champions League

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Benfica at 49% to win and Aarhus at 15%, with the draw at 36%. Our model makes a Benfica win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Aarhus Win	15%	@ 18.00	+170.7%
Draw	36%	@ 7.25	+159.5%
Benfica Win	49%	@ 1.14	-44.0%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.9-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 75% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	55%	@ 2.00	+10.4%
Over 2.5	75%	@ 1.40	+5.1%
Over 1.5	90%	@ 1.11	+0.2%
Under 3.5	45%	@ 1.80	-19.3%
Under 2.5	25%	@ 2.90	-27.7%
Under 1.5	10%	@ 6.25	-39.0%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 61%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	61%	@ 2.05	+25.8%
BTTS No	39%	@ 1.65	-36.3%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	75%
GradientBoosting	Draw	43%

Our models are divided on this match. This pick rests on the ensemble weighting rather than on consensus.

Expected goals: 1.73 for the home side, 0.97 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 2-0 (8%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Benfica vs Aarhus?

Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.40, with 75% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is both teams to score at 2.05 (+25.8% value).

Who is the favourite for Benfica vs Aarhus?

Our model makes a Benfica win the most likely result at 49%. It projects an expected 2.9-1.1 scoreline for Benfica vs Aarhus.

What is the predicted score for Benfica vs Aarhus?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.88 for Benfica and 1.05 for Aarhus. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Benfica and Aarhus play?

Kick-off is Thursday 20 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.