⚽ Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV in the Bundesliga. Kick-off Saturday 29 August 2026, 16:30 UTC.
Result: Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Hamburger SV
Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV finished 2-0. Borussia Dortmund won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Borussia Dortmund face Hamburger SV in the upcoming Bundesliga tips, kicking off Saturday 29 August 2026, 16:30 UTC. Recent form: Borussia Dortmund have 3 wins from their last 5, while Hamburger SV have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 3 meetings, Borussia Dortmund won 2, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely result at 70%, projecting a 2.3-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 9.1% | 8.5% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 10.5% | 9.7% | 4.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 8.0% | 7.4% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 4.6% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is a Borussia Dortmund win at odds 1.27, with a 70% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 70%. Goals lean over 2.5 (62%), both teams to score points yes (54%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 3 meetings between Borussia Dortmund and Hamburger SV. Wins shown from Borussia Dortmund’s perspective: Borussia Dortmund 2 · 1 drawn.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Borussia Dortmund | 2 – 0 | Hamburger SV | W |
| 2026-03-21 | Borussia Dortmund | 3 – 2 | Hamburger SV | W |
| 2025-11-08 | Hamburger SV | 1 – 1 | Borussia Dortmund | D |
📈 Recent form
Borussia Dortmund come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 15 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at HEBC. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WVfB Stuttgart 0-1 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- WBorussia Dortmund 3-0 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
- WBorussia Dortmund 3-2 VillarrealUEFA Champions League
- WHoffenheim 2-3 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- WHEBC 0-5 Borussia DortmundDFB Pokal
Hamburger SV come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 13. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Verl. Their most recent defeat was 0-5 at RB Leipzig.
- WHamburger SV 2-1 1. FC KölnBundesliga
- LRB Leipzig 5-0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- LHamburger SV 0-5 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
- LBorussia Dortmund 2-0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- WVerl 0-3 Hamburger SVDFB Pokal
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- R. BensebainiRibs Injury
- E. CanKnee Injury
- M. KabaInjury
- N. SchlotterbeckAnkle Injury
- M. MuheimMuscle Injury
- W. OmariPersonal Reasons
- A. Rossing-LelesiitAnkle Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Borussia Dortmund at 70% to win and Hamburger SV at 13%, with the draw at 17%. Our model makes a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund Win | 70% | 74% | @ 1.27 |
| Draw | 17% | 17% | @ 5.60 |
| Hamburger SV Win | 13% | 10% | @ 9.50 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Borussia Dortmund or Draw at 1.05 (88% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund or Draw | 88% | 90% | @ 1.05 |
| Hamburger SV or Draw | 31% | 26% | @ 3.55 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.3-0.9 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 62% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 84% | @ 1.12 |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 64% | @ 1.47 |
| Under 3.5 | 60% | 57% | @ 1.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 43% | @ 2.20 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 36% | @ 2.65 |
| Under 1.5 | 17% | 16% | @ 5.80 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 54%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 51% | @ 1.83 |
| BTTS No | 46% | 49% | @ 1.89 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Borussia Dortmund or Hamburger SV is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund +0.5 | 88% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Borussia Dortmund +0.25 | 83% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Borussia Dortmund 0 | 78% | 86% | 1.11 |
| Borussia Dortmund -0.25 | 74% | 78% | 1.21 |
| Borussia Dortmund -0.5 | 69% | 73% | 1.30 |
| Hamburger SV +2 | 66% | 62% | @ 1.54 |
| Borussia Dortmund -0.75 | 63% | 69% | 1.38 |
| Hamburger SV +1.75 | 61% | 55% | @ 1.75 |
| Borussia Dortmund -1 | 57% | 65% | 1.46 |
| Hamburger SV +1.5 | 55% | 48% | @ 1.97 |
| Borussia Dortmund -1.25 | 51% | 57% | 1.67 |
| Hamburger SV +1.25 | 49% | 43% | @ 2.25 |
| Borussia Dortmund -1.5 | 45% | 52% | 1.84 |
| Hamburger SV +1 | 43% | 35% | @ 2.70 |
| Borussia Dortmund -1.75 | 39% | 45% | 2.10 |
| Hamburger SV +0.75 | 37% | 31% | @ 3.12 |
| Borussia Dortmund -2 | 34% | 38% | 2.48 |
| Hamburger SV +0.5 | 31% | 27% | @ 3.49 |
| Hamburger SV +0.25 | 26% | 22% | @ 4.25 |
| Hamburger SV 0 | 22% | 14% | @ 6.60 |
| Hamburger SV -0.25 | 17% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
| Hamburger SV -0.5 | 12% | 14% | 7.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV?
Our model's main pick is a Borussia Dortmund win at odds 1.27, with a 70% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.
Who is the favourite for Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV?
Our model makes a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely result at 70%. It projects an expected 2.3-0.9 scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV.
What is the predicted score for Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-0, based on expected goals of 2.29 for Borussia Dortmund and 0.93 for Hamburger SV. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Borussia Dortmund and Hamburger SV play?
Kick-off is Saturday 29 August 2026, 16:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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