⚽ Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV in the Bundesliga. Kick-off Saturday 29 August 2026, 16:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Borussia Dortmund face Hamburger SV in the Bundesliga, kicking off Saturday 29 August 2026, 16:30 UTC. Recent form: Borussia Dortmund have 3 wins from their last 5, while Hamburger SV have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 2 meetings, Borussia Dortmund won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely result at 70%, projecting a 2.3-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Borussia Dortmund Win @ 1.31

70%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.29 – 0.93 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.0%	3.7%	1.7%	0.5%	0.1%
1	9.1%	8.5%	4.0%	1.2%	0.3%
2	10.5%	9.7%	4.5%	1.4%	0.3%
3	8.0%	7.4%	3.5%	1.1%	0.2%
4	4.6%	4.3%	2.0%	0.6%	0.1%

Projected score: 2-0

Borussia Dortmund winDrawHamburger SV win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is a Borussia Dortmund win at odds 1.31, the selection our model is most confident in at 70%. On the match result, the model rates a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 70%. Goals lean over 2.5 (62%), both teams to score points yes (54%).

Best value

BTTS Yes at odds 1.80, 54% model probability, -2.0% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Borussia Dortmund 70%Draw 17%Hamburger SV 13%

70%17%13%

70%

Borussia Dortmund Win

62%

Over 2.5 goals

54%

BTTS yes

-2.0%

Best value: BTTS Yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Borussia Dortmund and Hamburger SV. Wins shown from Borussia Dortmund’s perspective: Borussia Dortmund 1 · 1 drawn.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-03-21	Borussia Dortmund	3 – 2	Hamburger SV	W
2025-11-08	Hamburger SV	1 – 1	Borussia Dortmund	D

📈 Recent form

Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at FC Tokyo. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Bayern München.

LBorussia Dortmund 1-2 Bayern MünchenSuper Cup
DBorussia Dortmund 2-2 AS RomaFriendlies Clubs
WFC Tokyo 0-1 Borussia DortmundFriendlies Clubs
LCerezo Osaka 1-0 Borussia DortmundFriendlies Clubs
LFortuna Düsseldorf 2-1 Borussia DortmundFriendlies Clubs

Hamburger SV

Hamburger SV come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 8. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Verl. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Everton.

WVerl 0-3 Hamburger SVDFB Pokal
WToulouse 1-2 Hamburger SVFriendlies Clubs
DHamburger SV 2-2 LilleFriendlies Clubs
LHamburger SV 1-2 EvertonFriendlies Clubs
LRapid Vienna 3-2 Hamburger SVFriendlies Clubs

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Borussia Dortmund

E. CanKnee Injury
M. KabaInjury
N. SchlotterbeckAnkle Injury
R. BensebainiRibs Injury

Hamburger SV

M. MuheimMuscle Injury
W. OmariPersonal Reasons
A. Rossing-LelesiitAnkle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Borussia Dortmund at 70% to win and Hamburger SV at 13%, with the draw at 17%. Our model makes a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Hamburger SV Win	13%	@ 9.10	+21.8%
Borussia Dortmund Win	70%	@ 1.31	-8.2%
Draw	17%	@ 5.10	-15.5%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Hamburger SV or Draw at 3.30 (31% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Hamburger SV or Draw	31%	@ 3.30	+3.1%
Borussia Dortmund or Draw	88%	@ 1.05	-8.1%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.3-0.9 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 62% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 1.5	83%	@ 1.17	-2.7%
Under 3.5	60%	@ 1.62	-3.1%
Under 2.5	38%	@ 2.50	-6.0%
Over 2.5	62%	@ 1.50	-6.4%
Over 3.5	40%	@ 2.25	-9.6%
Under 1.5	17%	@ 5.00	-15.6%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 54%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	54%	@ 1.80	-2.0%
BTTS No	46%	@ 1.95	-11.1%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	70%
Dixon-Coles	Home	66%
GradientBoosting	Home	72%

All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.

Expected goals: 2.15 for the home side, 0.78 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV?

Our main pick is a Borussia Dortmund win at odds 1.31, with 70% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV?

Our model makes a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely result at 70%. It projects an expected 2.3-0.9 scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV.

What is the predicted score for Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-0, based on expected goals of 2.29 for Borussia Dortmund and 0.93 for Hamburger SV. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Borussia Dortmund and Hamburger SV play?

Kick-off is Saturday 29 August 2026, 16:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.