Wed 7 Oct23:30Upcoming

⚽ Brazilian Série A

Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Wednesday 07 October 2026, 23:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Botafogo face Vasco da Gama in the Brazilian Série A, kicking off Wednesday 07 October 2026, 23:30 UTC. Recent form: Botafogo have 1 win from their last 5, while Vasco da Gama have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Botafogo won 3, Vasco da Gama won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Botafogo win the most likely result at 53%, projecting a 1.7-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Botafogo or Draw @ 1.50

79%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.71 – 1.00 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.7%	6.7%	3.3%	1.1%	0.3%
1	11.4%	11.4%	5.7%	1.9%	0.5%
2	9.7%	9.7%	4.9%	1.6%	0.4%
3	5.5%	5.5%	2.8%	0.9%	0.2%
4	2.4%	2.4%	1.2%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-0

Botafogo winDrawVasco da Gama win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Botafogo or Draw at odds 1.50, with a 79% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Botafogo win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 53%. Goals lean over 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (52%).

📊 Key numbers

Botafogo 53%Draw 27%Vasco da Gama 20%

53%27%20%

53%

Botafogo Win

51%

Over 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Botafogo and Vasco da Gama. Wins shown from Botafogo’s perspective: Botafogo 3 · 1 drawn · Vasco da Gama 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-04-05	Vasco da Gama	1 – 2	Botafogo	W
2024-11-06	Botafogo	3 – 0	Vasco da Gama	W
2024-06-29	Vasco da Gama	1 – 1	Botafogo	D
2023-11-06	Vasco da Gama	1 – 0	Botafogo	L
2023-07-02	Botafogo	2 – 0	Vasco da Gama	W

📈 Recent form

Botafogo

Botafogo come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at home to Grêmio. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Mirassol.

LMirassol 2-0 BotafogoBrazilian Série A
WBotafogo 3-2 GrêmioBrazilian Série A
DBotafogo 1-1 RB BragantinoBrazilian Série A
DBotafogo 0-0 PalmeirasBrazilian Série A
LFlamengo 3-0 BotafogoBrazilian Série A

Vasco da Gama

Vasco da Gama come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 2. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at home to Coritiba. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at Fluminense.

WVasco da Gama 5-0 CoritibaBrazilian Série A
WVasco da Gama 2-0 Santa FeCONMEBOL Sudamericana
WGrêmio 1-2 Vasco da GamaBrazilian Série A
DSanta Fe 0-0 Vasco da GamaCONMEBOL Sudamericana
LFluminense 1-0 Vasco da GamaBrazilian Série A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Botafogo

J. BarreraAnkle Injury
K. BarriaNot in squad
Kaio PantaleaoKnee Injury
Matheus MartinsLacking Match Fitness

Vasco da Gama

BrennerKnee Injury
A. GomezSuspended (cards)
Mateus CarvalhoKnee Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Botafogo at 53% to win and Vasco da Gama at 20%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a Botafogo win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Botafogo Win	53%	34%	@ 2.80
Draw	27%	28%	@ 3.40
Vasco da Gama Win	20%	39%	@ 2.45

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Botafogo or Draw at 1.50 (79% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Botafogo or Draw	79%	61%	@ 1.50
Vasco da Gama or Draw	45%	66%	@ 1.40

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-1.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 51% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	75%	76%	@ 1.25
Under 3.5	71%	68%	@ 1.40
Over 2.5	51%	54%	@ 1.75
Under 2.5	49%	46%	@ 2.05
Over 3.5	29%	32%	@ 3.00
Under 1.5	25%	24%	@ 4.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 52%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	52%	58%	@ 1.62
BTTS No	48%	42%	@ 2.20

📈 How the market moved

Botafogo 34%Draw 27%Vasco da Gama 39%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	61%
Dixon-Coles	Home	45%
GradientBoosting	Home	54%

All three of our models point the same way on the match result.

Expected goals: 1.72 for the home side, 0.98 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama?

Our model's main pick is Botafogo or Draw at odds 1.50, with a 79% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 61%.

Who is the favourite for Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama?

Our model makes a Botafogo win the most likely result at 53%. It projects an expected 1.7-1.0 scoreline for Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama.

What is the predicted score for Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.71 for Botafogo and 1.00 for Vasco da Gama. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Botafogo and Vasco da Gama play?

Kick-off is Wednesday 07 October 2026, 23:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.